scholarly journals Atmospherically-forced sea-level variability in western Hudson Bay, Canada

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Dmitrenko ◽  
Denis Volkov ◽  
Tricia Stadnyk ◽  
Andrew Tefs ◽  
David Babb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Wind Forcing ◽  
Hudson Bay ◽  
Sea Level Variability ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Western Hudson Bay

Abstract. In recent years, significant trends toward earlier breakup and later freeze‐up of sea-ice in Hudson Bay have led to a considerable increase in shipping activity through the Port of Churchill, which is located in western Hudson Bay and is the only deep-water ocean port in the province of Manitoba. Therefore, understanding sea level variability at the Port is an urgent issue crucial for safe navigation and coastal infrastructure. Using tidal gauge data from the Port along with an atmospheric reanalysis and Churchill River discharge, we assess environmental factors impacting synoptic to seasonal variability of sea-level at Churchill. An atmospheric vorticity index used to describe the wind forcing was found to correlate with sea level at Churchill. Statistical analyses show that, in contrast to earlier studies, local discharge from the Churchill River can only explain up to 5 % of the sea level variability. The cyclonic wind forcing contributes from 22 % during the ice-covered winter-spring season to 30 % during the ice-free summer-fall season due to cyclone-induced storm surge generated along the coast. Multiple regression analysis revealed that wind forcing and local river discharge combined can explain up to 32 % of the sea level variability at Churchill. Our analysis further revealed that the seasonal cycle of sea level at Churchill appears to be impacted by the seasonal cycle in atmospheric circulation rather than by the seasonal cycle in local discharge from the Churchill River, particularly post-construction of the Churchill River diversion in 1977. Sea level at Churchill shows positive anomalies for September–November compared to June–August. This seasonal difference was also revealed for the entire Hudson Bay coast using satellite-derived sea level altimetry. This anomaly was associated with enhanced cyclonic atmospheric circulation during fall, reaching a maximum in November, which forced storm surges along the coast. Complete sea-ice cover during winter impedes momentum transfer from wind stress to the water column, reducing the impact of wind forcing on sea level variability. Expanding our observations to the bay-wide scale, we confirmed the process of wind-driven sea-level variability with (i) tidal-gauge data from eastern Hudson Bay and (ii) satellite altimetry measurements. Ultimately, we find that cyclonic winds generate sea level rise along the western and eastern coasts of Hudson Bay at the synoptic and seasonal time scales, suggesting an amplification of the bay-wide cyclonic geostrophic circulation in fall (October–November), when cyclonic vorticity is enhanced, and Hudson Bay is ice-free.

scholarly journals Atmospherically forced sea-level variability in western Hudson Bay, Canada

Ocean Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1367-1384
Author(s):  
Igor A. Dmitrenko ◽  
Denis L. Volkov ◽  
Tricia A. Stadnyk ◽  
Andrew Tefs ◽  
David G. Babb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Wind Forcing ◽  
Hudson Bay ◽  
Sea Level Variability ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Western Hudson Bay

Abstract. In recent years, significant trends toward earlier breakup and later freeze-up of sea ice in Hudson Bay have led to a considerable increase in shipping activity through the Port of Churchill, which is located in western Hudson Bay and is the only deep-water ocean port in the province of Manitoba. Therefore, understanding sea-level variability at the port is an urgent issue crucial for safe navigation and coastal infrastructure. Using tidal gauge data from the port along with an atmospheric reanalysis and Churchill River discharge, we assess environmental factors impacting synoptic to seasonal variability of sea level at Churchill. An atmospheric vorticity index used to describe the wind forcing was found to correlate with sea level at Churchill. Statistical analyses show that, in contrast to earlier studies, local discharge from the Churchill River can only explain up to 5 % of the sea-level variability. The cyclonic wind forcing contributes from 22 % during the ice-covered winter–spring season to 30 % during the ice-free summer–fall season due to cyclone-induced storm surges generated along the coast. Multiple regression analysis revealed that wind forcing and local river discharge combined can explain up to 32 % of the sea-level variability at Churchill. Our analysis further revealed that the seasonal cycle of sea level at Churchill appears to be impacted by the seasonal cycle in atmospheric circulation rather than by the seasonal cycle in local discharge from the Churchill River, particularly post-construction of the Churchill River diversion in 1977. Sea level at Churchill shows positive anomalies for September–November compared to June–August. This seasonal difference was also revealed for the entire Hudson Bay coast using satellite-derived sea-level altimetry. This anomaly was associated with enhanced cyclonic atmospheric circulation during fall, reaching a maximum in November, which forced storm surges along the coast. Complete sea-ice cover during winter impedes momentum transfer from wind stress to the water column, reducing the impact of wind forcing on sea-level variability. Expanding our observations to the bay-wide scale, we confirmed the process of wind-driven sea-level variability with (i) tidal-gauge data from eastern Hudson Bay and (ii) satellite altimetry measurements. Ultimately, we find that cyclonic winds generate sea-level rise along the western and eastern coasts of Hudson Bay at the synoptic and seasonal timescales, suggesting an amplification of the bay-wide cyclonic geostrophic circulation in fall (October–November), when cyclonic vorticity is enhanced, and Hudson Bay is ice-free.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the representation of Arctic sea ice in the U.K. Hadley Centre GCM

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 423-428
Author(s):  
Douglas M. Smith ◽  
Claire Cooper ◽  
Duncan J. Wingham ◽  
Seymour W. Laxon
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Of Okhotsk ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Hudson Bay ◽  
The Sea Of Okhotsk ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Hadley Centre

The amount of Arctic sea ice predicted by the Hadley Centre Global Cilimate Model (GCM) is evaluated using 15 years of passive-microwave data. While the Hadley model reproduces the seasonal cycle reasonably well, it underestimates the total area of sea ice by more than 3 × 106km2for most of the year. In the winter months, most of the underestimate in ice area results from the prediction of far too little ice in Hudson Bay and the Sea of Okhotsk, leading to an excess of up to 0.2 PW heat input to the atmosphere from Hudson Bay alone. The surface-energy budget of Hudson Bay is investigated using a mixture of surface observations (POLES), satellite data (ATSR, SSM/I and ISCCP) and output from the Goddard Data Assimilation Office analysis. Flux adjustments of the order of 200 Wm−2, resulting from anomalously high sea-surface temperatures in the Levitus (1982) climatology, are found to be the cause of the model’s underestimation of sea ice in both Hudson Bay and the Sea of Okhotsk. The fact that flux adjustments based on an inaccurate climatology will produce errors, even if the model physics is correct, underlines the need both for improved climatologies and for models accurate enough not to require flux adjustment.

Future sea ice conditions in Western Hudson Bay and consequences for polar bears in the 21st century

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 2675-2687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Castro de la Guardia ◽  
Andrew E. Derocher ◽  
Paul G. Myers ◽  
Arjen D. Terwisscha van Scheltinga ◽  
Nick J. Lunn
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Hudson Bay ◽  
Polar Bears ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Western Hudson Bay

scholarly journals Atmospheric Circulation Changes and their Impact on Extreme Sea Levels around Australia

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Colberg ◽  
Kathleen L. McInnes ◽  
Julian O'Grady ◽  
Ron K. Hoeke
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Sea Level Variability ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
Coastal Sea ◽  
Circulation Changes

Abstract. Projections of sea level rise (SLR) will lead to increasing coastal impacts during extreme sea level events globally, however, there is significant uncertainty around short-term coastal sea level variability and the attendant frequency and severity of extreme sea level events. In this study, we investigate drivers of coastal sea level variability (including extremes) around Australia by means of historical conditions as well as future changes under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5). To do this, a multi-decade hindcast simulation is validated against tide gauge data. The role of tide-surge interaction is assessed and found to have negligible effects on storm surge characteristic heights over most of the coastline. For future projections, twenty-year long simulations are carried out over the time periods 1981–1999 and 2081–2099 using atmospheric forcing from four CMIP5 climate models. Results provide insights into how future atmospheric circulation changes may impact Australia's coastal zone and highlight regions of potential sensitivity to atmospheric circulation changes. Areas of note are the Gulf of Carpentaria in the north where changes to the northwest monsoon could lead to relatively large increases in extreme sea levels during Austral summer. For the southern mainland coast the simulated scenarios suggest that a southward movement of the subtropical ridge leads to a small reduction in sea level extremes.

scholarly journals Simulated impacts of relative climate change and river discharge regulation on sea ice and oceanographic conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer V. Lukovich ◽  
Shabnam Jafarikhasragh ◽  
Paul G. Myers ◽  
Natasha A. Ridenour ◽  
Laura Castro de la Guardia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Hudson Bay ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Ice Drift ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Drift ◽  
Discharge Regulation

In this analysis, we examine relative contributions from climate change and river discharge regulation to changes in marine conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex using a subset of five atmospheric forcing scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), river discharge data from the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model, both naturalized (without anthropogenic intervention) and regulated (anthropogenically controlled through diversions, dams, reservoirs), and output from the Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean Ice-Ocean model for the 1981–2070 time frame. Investigated in particular are spatiotemporal changes in sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and thickness, and zonal and meridional sea ice drift in response to (i) climate change through comparison of historical (1981–2010) and future (2021–2050 and 2041–2070) simulations, (ii) regulation through comparison of historical (1981–2010) naturalized and regulated simulations, and (iii) climate change and regulation combined through comparison of future (2021–2050 and 2041–2070) naturalized and regulated simulations. Also investigated is use of the diagnostic known as e-folding time spatial distribution to monitor changes in persistence in these variables in response to changing climate and regulation impacts in the Hudson Bay Complex. Results from this analysis highlight bay-wide and regional reductions in sea ice concentration and thickness in southwest and northeast Hudson Bay in response to a changing climate, and east-west asymmetry in sea ice drift response in support of past studies. Regulation is also shown to amplify or suppress the climate change signal. Specifically, regulation amplifies sea surface temperatures from April to August, suppresses sea ice loss by approximately 30% in March, contributes to enhanced sea ice drift speed by approximately 30%, and reduces meridional circulation by approximately 20% in January due to enhanced zonal drift. Results further suggest that the offshore impacts of regulation are amplified in a changing climate.

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