Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

Abstract. Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea-level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the IPCC AR5. Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ~ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean – NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled (~ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980–2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenarios respectively. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2 year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of ~ 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

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Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

Ocean Science ◽

10.5194/os-12-613-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 613-632 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Heather Cannaby ◽

Matthew D. Palmer ◽

Tom Howard ◽

Lucy Bricheno ◽

Daley Calvert ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Wave Height ◽

21St Century ◽

Significant Wave Height ◽

Quantitative Assessment ◽

Climate Model ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Significant Wave

Abstract. Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ∼  12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean – NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ∼  12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of ∼  84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

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Projection and Analysis of Extreme Wave Climate

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli3918.1 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 19 (21) ◽

pp. 5581-5605 ◽

Cited By ~ 83

Author(s):

Sofia Caires ◽

Val R. Swail ◽

Xiaolan L. Wang

Keyword(s):

Poisson Process ◽

Sea Level ◽

Wave Height ◽

Significant Wave Height ◽

Climate Model ◽

Extreme Values ◽

Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process ◽

Sea Level Pressure ◽

Significant Wave ◽

Level Pressure

Abstract The nonhomogeneous Poisson process is used to model extreme values of the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) significant wave height. The parameters of the model are expressed as functions of the seasonal mean sea level pressure anomaly and seasonal squared sea level pressure gradient index. Using projections of the sea level pressure under three different forcing scenarios by the Canadian coupled climate model, projections of the parameters of the nonhomogeneous Poisson process are made, trends in these projections are determined, return-value estimates of significant wave height up to the end of the twenty-first century are projected, and their uncertainties are assessed. The uncertainty of estimates associated with the nonhomogeneous Poisson process estimates is studied and compared with the homologous estimates obtained using a nonstationary generalized extreme value model.

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Trends of significant wave height and sea level in the southern water of the Special Region of Yogyakarta

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/202020002025 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 200 ◽

pp. 02025

Author(s):

Martono ◽

Indah Susanti ◽

Bambang Siswanto ◽

Amalia Nurlatifah ◽

Mamat Suhermat ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Coastal Zone ◽

Wave Height ◽

Significant Wave Height ◽

The West ◽

Significant Wave ◽

Transition Season ◽

Special Region ◽

And Sea Level

Coastal zone is very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The increase of sea wave and sea level rise threaten coastal zone. The purpose of this study is to determine trends of significant wave height and sea level in the southern waters of the special region of Yogyakarta. The data used consists of daily significant wave height from 2010-2018, weekly absolute dynamics topography from 2005-2018 and daily surface wind from 2010-2018. Trends of significant wave height and sea level were analyzed by using linear regression. The results showed that significant wave height during the east season until the second transition season was higher than the west season and the first transition season. Vice versa, sea level during the east season until the second transition season was lower than the west season and the first transition season. Trends of significant wave height has increased of 0.63 cm/year, meanwhile sea level rise reached 0.82 cm/years.

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Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1907461116 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 116 (47) ◽

pp. 23487-23492 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Alexander Nauels ◽

Johannes Gütschow ◽

Matthias Mengel ◽

Malte Meinshausen ◽

Peter U. Clark ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Sea Level ◽

21St Century ◽

Paris Agreement ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Global Mean Sea Level ◽

Global Mean

The main contributors to sea-level rise (oceans, glaciers, and ice sheets) respond to climate change on timescales ranging from decades to millennia. A focus on the 21st century thus fails to provide a complete picture of the consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on future sea-level rise and its long-term impacts. Here we identify the committed global mean sea-level rise until 2300 from historical emissions since 1750 and the currently pledged National Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement until 2030. Our results indicate that greenhouse gas emissions over this 280-y period result in about 1 m of committed global mean sea-level rise by 2300, with the NDC emissions from 2016 to 2030 corresponding to around 20 cm or 1/5 of that commitment. We also find that 26 cm (12 cm) of the projected sea-level-rise commitment in 2300 can be attributed to emissions from the top 5 emitting countries (China, United States of America, European Union, India, and Russia) over the 1991–2030 (2016–2030) period. Our findings demonstrate that global and individual country emissions over the first decades of the 21st century alone will cause substantial long-term sea-level rise.

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Statistical Uncertainty in Long-Term Distributions of Significant Wave Height

Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering ◽

10.1115/1.2833917 ◽

1996 ◽

Vol 118 (4) ◽

pp. 284-291 ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

C. Guedes Soares ◽

A. C. Henriques

Keyword(s):

Probability Distribution ◽

Wave Height ◽

Significant Wave Height ◽

Data Sets ◽

Monthly Basis ◽

Significant Wave ◽

Fitting Procedure ◽

The One ◽

Homogeneous Data

This work examines some aspects involved in the estimation of the parameters of the probability distribution of significant wave height, in particular the homogeneity of the data sets and the statistical methods of fitting a distribution to data. More homogeneous data sets are organized by collecting the data on a monthly basis and by separating the simple sea states from the combined ones. A three-parameter Weibull distribution is fitted to the data. The parameters of the fitted distribution are estimated by the methods of maximum likelihood, of regression, and of the moments. The uncertainty involved in estimating the probability distribution with the three methods is compared with the one that results from using more homogeneous data sets, and it is concluded that the uncertainty involved in the fitting procedure can be more significant unless the method of moments is not considered.

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Long-Term and Seasonal Trends in Global Wave Height Extremes Derived from ERA-5 Reanalysis Data

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ◽

10.3390/jmse8121015 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (12) ◽

pp. 1015

Author(s):

Alicia Takbash ◽

Ian R. Young

Keyword(s):

Southern Hemisphere ◽

Wave Height ◽

Significant Wave Height ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

Extreme Value Analysis ◽

Winter Storms ◽

Value Analysis ◽

Weather Forecasts ◽

Significant Wave

A non-stationary extreme value analysis of 41 years (1979–2019) of global ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis) significant wave height data is undertaken to investigate trends in the values of 100-year significant wave height, Hs100. The analysis shows that there has been a statistically significant increase in the value of Hs100 over large regions of the Southern Hemisphere. There have also been smaller decreases in Hs100 in the Northern Hemisphere, although the related trends are generally not statistically significant. The increases in the Southern Hemisphere are a result of an increase in either the frequency or intensity of winter storms, particularly in the Southern Ocean.

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A nonstationary stochastic model for long-term time series of significant wave height

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ◽

10.1029/94jc01022 ◽

1995 ◽

Vol 100 (C8) ◽

pp. 16149 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

G. A. Athanassoulis ◽

Ch. N. Stefanakos

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Stochastic Model ◽

Wave Height ◽

Significant Wave Height ◽

Significant Wave

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ON LONG-TERM STATISTICS FOR OCEAN AND COASTAL WAVES

Coastal Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.9753/icce.v16.2 ◽

1978 ◽

Vol 1 (16) ◽

pp. 2 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Michel K. Ochi

Keyword(s):

Wave Height ◽

Significant Wave Height ◽

Contingency Table ◽

Statistical Properties ◽

Significant Wave ◽

Coastal Waves ◽

Normal Probability ◽

Log Normal ◽

Confidence Domain

This paper discusses the statistical properties of long-term ocean and coastal waves derived from analysis of available data. It was found from the results of the analysis that the statistical properties of wave height and period obey the bi-variate log-normal probability law. The method to determine the confidence domain for a specified confidence coefficient is presented so that reliable information in severe seas where data are always sparse can be obtained from a contingency table. Estimation of the extreme significant wave height expected in the long-term is also discussed.

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Coastal flooding in the Balearic Islands during the 21st century caused by sea level rise and extreme events

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4549 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Pau Luque Lozano ◽

Lluís Gómez-Pujol ◽

Marta Marcos ◽

Alejandro Orfila

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

21St Century ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Coastal Flooding ◽

Coastal Areas ◽

Balearic Islands ◽

Mean Sea Level

Sea-level rise induces a permanent loss of land with widespread ecological and economic impacts, most evident in urban and densely populated areas. The eventual coastline retreat combined with the action of waves and storm surges will end in more severe damages over coastal areas. These effects are expected to be particularly significant over islands, where coastal zones represent a relatively larger area vulnerable to marine hazards.Managing coastal flood risk at regional scales requires a prioritization of resources and socioeconomic activities along the coast. Stakeholders, such as regional authorities, coastal managers and private companies, need tools that help to address the evaluation of coastal risks and criteria to support decision-makers to clarify priorities and critical sites. For this reason, the regional Government of the Balearic Islands (Spain) in association with the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Environment has launched the Plan for Climate Change Coastal Adaptation. This framework integrates two levels of analysis. The first one relates with the identification of critical areas affected by coastal flooding and erosion under mean sea-level rise scenarios and the quantification of the extent of flooding, including marine extreme events. The second level assesses the impacts on infrastructures and assets from a socioeconomic perspective due to these hazards.In this context, this paper quantifies the effects of sea-level rise and marine extreme events caused by storm surges and waves along the coasts of the Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean Sea) in terms of coastal flooding and potential erosion. Given the regional scale (~1500 km) of this study, the presented methodology adopts a compromise between accuracy, physical representativity and computational costs. We map the projected flooded coastal areas under two mean sea-level rise climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. To do so, we apply a corrected bathtub algorithm. Additionally, we compute the impact of extreme storm surges and waves using two 35-year hindcasts consistently forced by mean sea level pressure and surface winds from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Waves have been further propagated towards the nearshore to compute wave setup with higher accuracy. The 100-year return levels of joint storm surges and waves are used to map the spatial extent of flooding in more than 200 sandy beaches around the Balearic Islands by mid and late 21st century, using the hydrodynamical LISFLOOD-FP model and a high resolution (2 m) Digital Elevation Model.

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The land-ice contribution to 21st century dynamic sea-level rise

Ocean Science Discussions ◽

10.5194/osd-11-123-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 123-169 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

T. Howard ◽

J. Ridley ◽

A. K. Pardaens ◽

R. T. W. L. Hurkmans ◽

A. J. Payne ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

21St Century ◽

Sea Level Change ◽

Sea Level Changes ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Ice Melt ◽

Level Change ◽

Global Mean ◽

Dynamic Sea Level

Abstract. Climate change has the potential to locally influence mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. These lead to departures from the global mean sea level change, due to spatial variations in the change of water density and transport, which are termed dynamic sea level changes. In this study we present regional patterns of sea-level change projected by a global coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model forced by projected ice-melt fluxes from three sources: the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland ice sheet and small glaciers and ice caps. The largest ice melt flux we consider is equivalent to almost 0.7 m of global sea level rise over the 21st century. Since the ice melt is not constant, the evolution of the dynamic sea level changes is analysed. We find that the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is small, with the largest changes, occurring in the North Atlantic, contributing of order 3 cm above the global mean rise. Furthermore, the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is similar regardless of whether the simulated ice fluxes are applied to a simulation with fixed or changing atmospheric CO2.

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