Induced microearthquakes predict permeability creation in the brittle crust

Fracturing controls rates of mass, chemical and energy cycling within the crust. We use observed locations and magnitudes of microearthquakes (MEQs) to illuminate the evolving architecture of fractures reactivated and created in the otherwise opaque subsurface. We quantitatively link seismic moments of laboratory MEQs to the creation of porosity and permeability at field scale. MEQ magnitudes scale to the slipping patch size of remanent fractures reactivated in shear - with scale-invariant roughnesses defining permeability evolution across nine decades of spatial volumes – from centimeter to decameter scale. This physics-inspired seismicity-permeability linkage enables hybrid machine learning (ML) to constrain in-situ permeability evolution at verifiable field-scales (~10 m). The ML model is trained on early injection and MEQ data to predict the dynamic evolution of permeability from MEQ magnitudes and locations, alone. The resulting permeability maps define and quantify flow paths verified against ground truths of permeability.

Periodic CO2 Injection for Improved Storage Capacity and Pressure Management under Intermittent CO2 Supply

Storing CO2 in geological formations is an important component of reducing greenhouse gases emissions. The Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) industry is now in its establishing phase, and if successful, massive storage volumes would be needed. It will hence be important to utilize each storage site to its maximum, without challenging the formation integrity. For different reasons, supply of CO2 to the injection sites may be periodical or unstable, often considered as a risk element reducing the overall efficiency and economics of CCS projects. In this paper we present outcomes of investigations focusing on a variety of positive aspects of periodic CO2 injection, including pressure management and storage capacity, also highlighting reservoir monitoring opportunities. A feasibility study of periodic injection into an infinite saline aquifer using a mechanistic reservoir model has indicated significant improvement in storage capacity compared to continuous injection. The reservoir pressure and CO2 plume behavior were further studied revealing a ‘CO2 expansion squeeze’ effect that governs the improved storage capacity observed in the feasibility study. Finally, the improved pressure measurement and storage capacity by periodic injection was confirmed by field-scale simulations based on a real geological set-up. The field-scale simulations have confirmed that ‘CO2 expansion squeeze’ governs the positive effect, which is also influenced by well location in the geological structure and aquifer size, while CO2 dissolution in water showed minor influence. Additional reservoir effects and risks not covered in this paper are then highlighted as a scope for further studies. The value of the periodic injection with intermittent CO2 supply is finally discussed in the context of deployment and integration of this technology in the establishing CCS industry.

Morphodynamic limits to environmental signal propagation across landscapes and into strata

The sedimentary record contains unique information about landscape response to environmental forcing at timescales that far exceed landscape observations over human timescales. However, stochastic processes can overprint and shred evidence of environmental signals, such as sediment flux signals, and so inhibit their transfer to strata. Our community currently lacks a quantitative framework to differentiate between environmental signals and autogenic signals in field-scale analysis of strata. Here we develop a framework and workflow to estimate autogenic thresholds for ancient sediment routing systems. Crucially these thresholds can be approximated using measurements that are readily attainable from field systems, circumventing the low temporal resolution offered by strata. This work demonstrates how short-term system dynamics can be accessed from ancient sediment routing systems to place morphodynamic limits on environmental signal propagation across ancient landscapes and into strata.