scholarly journals Supplementary material to "Surface Mass Balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its link with surface temperature change in model simulations and reconstructions"

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quentin Dalaiden ◽  
Hugues Goosse ◽  
François Klein ◽  
Jan T. M. Lenaerts ◽  
Max Holloway ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Supplementary Material ◽  
The Antarctic

scholarly journals Surface Mass Balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its link with surface temperature change in model simulations and reconstructions

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quentin Dalaiden ◽  
Hugues Goosse ◽  
François Klein ◽  
Jan T. M. Lenaerts ◽  
Max Holloway ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Improving our knowledge of the temporal and spatial variability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) Surface Mass Balance (SMB) is crucial to reduce the uncertainties of past, present and future Antarctic contributions to sea level rise. Here, we show that Global Climate Models (GCMs) can reproduce the present-day (1979–2005) AIS SMB and the temporal variations over the last two centuries. An examination of the surface temperature–SMB relationship in model simulations demonstrates a strong link between the two. Reconstructions based on ice cores display a weaker relationship, indicating a model-data discrepancy that may be due to model biases or to the non-climatic noise present in the records. We find that, on the regional scale, the modelled temperature-SMB relationship is stronger than the relationship between δ18O-temperature. This suggests that SMB data can be used to reconstruct past surface temperatures. Using this finding, we assimilate isotope-enabled model SMB and δ18O output with ice-core observations, to generate a new surface temperature reconstruction. Although an independent evaluation of the skill is difficult because of the short observational time series, this new reconstruction outperforms the previous reconstructions for the continental-mean temperature that were based on δ18O alone with a linear correlation coefficient with the observed surface temperatures (1958–2010 CE) of 0.73. The improvement is largest for the East Antarctic region, where the uncertainties are particularly large. Finally, we provide a spatial SMB reconstruction of the AIS over the last two centuries showing 1) large variability in SMB trends at regional scale; and 2) a large SMB increase (0.82 Gt year−2) in West Antarctica over 1957–2000 while at the same time, East Antarctica has experienced a large SMB decrease (−3.3 Gt year−2), which is consistent with a recent reconstruction.

scholarly journals An Evaluation of Surface Climatology in State-of-the-Art Reanalyses over the Antarctic Ice Sheet

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (20) ◽  
pp. 6899-6915 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gossart ◽  
S. Helsen ◽  
J. T. M. Lenaerts ◽  
S. Vanden Broucke ◽  
N. P. M. van Lipzig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract In this study, we evaluate output of near-surface atmospheric variables over the Antarctic Ice Sheet from four reanalyses: the new European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-5 and its predecessor ERA-Interim, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). The near-surface temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity are compared with datasets of in situ observations, together with an assessment of the simulated surface mass balance (approximated by precipitation minus evaporation). No reanalysis clearly stands out as the best performing for all areas, seasons, and variables, and each of the reanalyses displays different biases. CFSR strongly overestimates the relative humidity during all seasons whereas ERA-5 and MERRA-2 (and, to a lesser extent, ERA-Interim) strongly underestimate relative humidity during winter. ERA-5 captures the seasonal cycle of near-surface temperature best and shows the smallest bias relative to the observations. The other reanalyses show a general temperature underestimation during the winter months in the Antarctic interior and overestimation in the coastal areas. All reanalyses underestimate the mean near-surface winds in the interior (except MERRA-2) and along the coast during the entire year. The winds at the Antarctic Peninsula are overestimated by all reanalyses except MERRA-2. All models are able to capture snowfall patterns related to atmospheric rivers, with varying accuracy. Accumulation is best represented by ERA-5, although it underestimates observed surface mass balance and there is some variability in the accumulation over the different elevation classes, for all reanalyses.

scholarly journals A new approach to estimate ice dynamic rates using satellite observations in East Antarctica

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bianca Kallenberg ◽  
Paul Tregoning ◽  
Janosch F. Hoffmann ◽  
Rhys Hawkins ◽  
Anthony Purcell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Elevation Changes ◽  
Ice Sheet Mass Balance ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Mass balance changes of the Antarctic ice sheet are of significant interest due to its sensitivity to climatic changes and its contribution to changes in global sea level. While regional climate models successfully estimate mass input due to snowfall, it remains difficult to estimate the amount of mass loss due to ice dynamic processes. It's often been assumed that changes in ice dynamic rates only need to be considered when assessing long term ice sheet mass balance; however, two decades of satellite altimetry observations reveal that the Antarctic ice sheet changes unexpectedly and much more dynamically than previously expected. Despite available estimates on ice dynamic rates obtained from radar altimetry, information about changes in ice dynamic rates are still limited, especially in East Antarctica. Without understanding ice dynamic rates it is not possible to properly assess changes in ice sheet mass balance, surface elevation or to develop ice sheet models. In this study we investigate the possibility of estimating ice dynamic rates by removing modelled rates of surface mass balance, firn compaction and bedrock uplift from satellite altimetry and gravity observations. With similar rates of ice discharge acquired from two different satellite missions we show that it is possible to obtain an approximation of ice dynamic rates by combining altimetry and gravity observations. Thus, surface elevation changes due to surface mass balance, firn compaction and ice dynamic rates can be modelled and correlate with observed elevation changes from satellite altimetry.

scholarly journals Supplementary material to "Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet"

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Nicolas C. Jourdain ◽  
Stefan Hofer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Supplementary Material ◽  
The Antarctic

Decreasing Antarctic surface mass balance due to runoff-dominated ablation by 2100

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Nicolas Jourdain ◽  
Stefan Hofer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The Antarctic

<p><span>The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet is often considered as a negative contributor to the sea level rise as present snowfall accumulation largely compensate</span><span>s</span><span> for ablation through wind erosion, sublimation and runoff. The latter is even almost negligible since current Antarctic surface melting is limited to relatively scarce events over generally peripheral areas and refreezes almost entirely into the snowpack. However, melting can significantly affect the stability of ice shelves through hydrofracturing, potentially leading to their disintegration, acceleration of grounded ice and increased sea level rise. Although a large increase in snowfall is expected in a warmer climate, more numerous and stronger melting events could conversely lead to a larger risk of ice shelf collapse. In this study, we provide an estimation of the SMB of the Antarctic ice sheet for the end of the 21st century by forcing the state-of-the-art regional climate model MAR with three different global climate models. We chose the models (from both the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 - CMIP5 and CMIP6) providing the best metrics for representing the current Antarctic climate. While the increase in snowfall largely compensates snow ablation through runoff in CMIP5-forced projections, CMIP6-forced simulations reveal that runoff cannot be neglected in the future as it accounts for a maximum of 50% of snowfall and becomes the main ablation component over the ice sheet. Furthermore, we identify a tipping point (ie., a warming of 4°C) at which the Antarctic SMB starts to decrease as a result of enhanced runoff particularly over ice shelves. Our results highlight the importance of taking into account meltwater production and runoff and indicate that previous model studies neglecting these processes yield overestimated SMB estimates, ultimately leading to underestimated Antarctic contribution to sea level rise. Finally, melt rates over each ice shelf are higher than those that led to the collapse of the Larsen A and B ice shelves, suggesting a high probability of ice shelf collapses all over peripheral Antarctica by 2100.</span></p>

scholarly journals What is the surface mass balance of Antarctica? An intercomparison of regional climate model estimates

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 3751-3784
Author(s):  
Ruth Mottram ◽  
Nicolaj Hansen ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
J. Melchior van Wessem ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. We compare the performance of five different regional climate models (RCMs) (COSMO-CLM2, HIRHAM5, MAR3.10, MetUM, and RACMO2.3p2), forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis, in simulating the near-surface climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Antarctica. All models simulate Antarctic climate well when compared with daily observed temperature and pressure, with nudged models matching daily observations slightly better than free-running models. The ensemble mean annual SMB over the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) including ice shelves is 2329±94 Gt yr−1 over the common 1987–2015 period covered by all models. There is large interannual variability, consistent between models due to variability in the driving ERA-Interim reanalysis. Mean annual SMB is sensitive to the chosen period; over our 30-year climatological mean period (1980 to 2010), the ensemble mean is 2483 Gt yr−1. However, individual model estimates vary from 1961±70 to 2519±118 Gt yr−1. The largest spatial differences between model SMB estimates are in West Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula, and around the Transantarctic Mountains. We find no significant trend in Antarctic SMB over either period. Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss is currently equivalent to around 0.5 mm yr−1 of global mean sea level rise (Shepherd et al., 2020), but our results indicate some uncertainty in the SMB contribution based on RCMs. We compare modelled SMB with a large dataset of observations, which, though biased by undersampling, indicates that many of the biases in SMB are common between models. A drifting-snow scheme improves modelled SMB on ice sheet surface slopes with an elevation between 1000 and 2000 m, where strong katabatic winds form. Different ice masks have a substantial impact on the integrated total SMB and along with model resolution are factored into our analysis. Targeting undersampled regions with high precipitation for observational campaigns will be key to improving future estimates of SMB in Antarctica.

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