scholarly journals Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice K. DuVivier ◽  
Patricia DeRepentigny ◽  
Marika M. Holland ◽  
Melinda Webster ◽  
Jennifer E. Kay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Condition ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Lagrangian Tracking ◽  
Ice Floes

Abstract. In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has shifted toward younger, thinner, seasonal ice regime. Studying and understanding this “New” Arctic will be the focus of a year-long ship campaign beginning in autumn 2019. Lagrangian tracking of sea ice floes in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) allow for understanding conditions that a floe will experience throughout the calendar year. These model tracks can assist with campaign planning, put into context a single year of observations, and provide guidance on how observations can help with model development. The modelled floe tracks show a Transpolar Drift trajectory is likely, providing guidance for coordinating satellite, airborne, and ground observations. However, there is a smaller possibility of high-risk tracks, including possible melt of the floe before the end of a calendar year. Because of high variability in the melt season sea ice conditions, we recommend in-situ sampling over a large range of ice conditions for a more complete understanding of how ice type or surface condition affect processes. We find that sea ice predictability emerges rapidly during the autumn freeze-up and anticipate that process-based observations during this period may help elucidate the processes leading to this change in predictability. Accurate seasonal cycle comparison of sea ice conditions between point-based observations a model requires the model to use a Lagrangian framework.

scholarly journals Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1259-1271
Author(s):  
Alice K. DuVivier ◽  
Patricia DeRepentigny ◽  
Marika M. Holland ◽  
Melinda Webster ◽  
Jennifer E. Kay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Lagrangian Tracking ◽  
Ice Floes

Abstract. In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has shifted toward a younger, thinner, seasonal ice regime. Studying and understanding this “new” Arctic will be the focus of a year-long ship campaign beginning in autumn 2019. Lagrangian tracking of sea ice floes in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) during representative “perennial” and “seasonal” time periods allows for understanding of the conditions that a floe could experience throughout the calendar year. These model tracks, put into context a single year of observations, provide guidance on how observations can optimally shape model development, and how climate models could be used in future campaign planning. The modeled floe tracks show a range of possible trajectories, though a Transpolar Drift trajectory is most likely. There is also a small but emerging possibility of high-risk tracks, including possible melt of the floe before the end of a calendar year. We find that a Lagrangian approach is essential in order to correctly compare the seasonal cycle of sea ice conditions between point-based observations and a model. Because of high variability in the melt season sea ice conditions, we recommend in situ sampling over a large range of ice conditions for a more complete understanding of how ice type and surface conditions affect the observed processes. We find that sea ice predictability emerges rapidly during the autumn freeze-up and anticipate that process-based observations during this period may help elucidate the processes leading to this change in predictability.

Prévoir les variations saisonnières de la glace de mer arctique et leurs impacts sur le climat

2020 ◽  
pp. 024
Author(s):  
Rym Msadek ◽  
Gilles Garric ◽  
Sara Fleury ◽  
Florent Garnier ◽  
Lauriane Batté ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Recent Effort ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Upper Level

L'Arctique est la région du globe qui s'est réchauffée le plus vite au cours des trente dernières années, avec une augmentation de la température de surface environ deux fois plus rapide que pour la moyenne globale. Le déclin de la banquise arctique observé depuis le début de l'ère satellitaire et attribué principalement à l'augmentation de la concentration des gaz à effet de serre aurait joué un rôle important dans cette amplification des températures au pôle. Cette fonte importante des glaces arctiques, qui devrait s'accélérer dans les décennies à venir, pourrait modifier les vents en haute altitude et potentiellement avoir un impact sur le climat des moyennes latitudes. L'étendue de la banquise arctique varie considérablement d'une saison à l'autre, d'une année à l'autre, d'une décennie à l'autre. Améliorer notre capacité à prévoir ces variations nécessite de comprendre, observer et modéliser les interactions entre la banquise et les autres composantes du système Terre, telles que l'océan, l'atmosphère ou la biosphère, à différentes échelles de temps. La réalisation de prévisions saisonnières de la banquise arctique est très récente comparée aux prévisions du temps ou aux prévisions saisonnières de paramètres météorologiques (température, précipitation). Les résultats ayant émergé au cours des dix dernières années mettent en évidence l'importance des observations de l'épaisseur de la glace de mer pour prévoir l'évolution de la banquise estivale plusieurs mois à l'avance. Surface temperatures over the Arctic region have been increasing twice as fast as global mean temperatures, a phenomenon known as arctic amplification. One main contributor to this polar warming is the large decline of Arctic sea ice observed since the beginning of satellite observations, which has been attributed to the increase of greenhouse gases. The acceleration of Arctic sea ice loss that is projected for the coming decades could modify the upper level atmospheric circulation yielding climate impacts up to the mid-latitudes. There is considerable variability in the spatial extent of ice cover on seasonal, interannual and decadal time scales. Better understanding, observing and modelling the interactions between sea ice and the other components of the climate system is key for improved predictions of Arctic sea ice in the future. Running operational-like seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice is a quite recent effort compared to weather predictions or seasonal predictions of atmospheric fields like temperature or precipitation. Recent results stress the importance of sea ice thickness observations to improve seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice conditions during summer.

scholarly journals Arctic seabirds and shrinking sea ice: egg analyses reveal the importance of ice-derived resources

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanny Cusset ◽  
Jérôme Fort ◽  
Mark Mallory ◽  
Birgit Braune ◽  
Philippe Massicotte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Marine Species ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Climate Shifts ◽  
Investment In Reproduction ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Arctic Seabirds ◽  
Energetic Composition

Abstract In the Arctic, sea-ice plays a central role in the functioning of marine food webs and its rapid shrinking has large effects on the biota. It is thus crucial to assess the importance of sea-ice and ice-derived resources to Arctic marine species. Here, we used a multi-biomarker approach combining Highly Branched Isoprenoids (HBIs) with δ13C and δ15N to evaluate how much Arctic seabirds rely on sea-ice derived resources during the pre-laying period, and if changes in sea-ice extent and duration affect their investment in reproduction. Eggs of thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) and northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) were collected in the Canadian Arctic during four years of highly contrasting ice conditions, and analysed for HBIs, isotopic (carbon and nitrogen) and energetic composition. Murres heavily relied on ice-associated prey, and sea-ice was beneficial for this species which produced larger and more energy-dense eggs during icier years. In contrast, fulmars did not exhibit any clear association with sympagic communities and were not impacted by changes in sea ice. Murres, like other species more constrained in their response to sea-ice variations, therefore appear more sensitive to changes and may become the losers of future climate shifts in the Arctic, unlike more resilient species such as fulmars.

scholarly journals Quantification of the Arctic Sea Ice‐Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Simulations

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu‐Chiao Liang ◽  
Young‐Oh Kwon ◽  
Claude Frankignoul ◽  
Gokhan Danabasoglu ◽  
Stephen Yeager ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Arctic Sea

scholarly journals Inter-Relations between the Arctic Sea Ice and the General Circulation of the Atmosphere (Abstract)

1987 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 252-252
Author(s):  
G. Wendler ◽  
M. Jeffries ◽  
Y. Nagashima
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Zonal Circulation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Opposing Effects

Satellite imagery has substantially improved the quality of sea-Ice observation over the last decades. Therefore, for a 25-year period, a statistical study based on the monthly Arctic sea-ice data and the monthly mean 700 mbar maps of the Northern Hemisphere was carried out to establish the relationships between sea-ice conditions and the general circulation of the atmosphere. It was found that sea-ice conditions have two opposing effects on the zonal circulation intensity, depending on the season. Heavier than normal ice in winter causes stronger than normal zonal circulation in the subsequent months, whereas heavier than normal ice in the summer–fall causes weaker zonal circulation in the subsequent months. Analyzing the two sectors, the Atlantic and Pacific ones separately, a negative correlation was found, which means a heavy ice year in the Atlantic Ocean is normally associated with a light one in the Pacific Ocean and vice versa.

Sea ice and atmosphere interactions and predictability: preliminary results using HadGEM3

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Flocco ◽  
Ed Hawkins ◽  
Leandro Ponsoni ◽  
Francois Massonnet ◽  
Daniel Feltham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Complete Information ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Ice Conditions

<p>Arctic sea ice extent has steadily declined in the past 30 years. Aside from the global impact on climate change, regional information on the sea ice presence and on its impact on oceanic and atmospheric patterns has witnessed a growing interest. There is a growing need for seasonal-to-decadal timescale climate forecasts to help inform local communities and industry stakeholders.</p><p>Here we examine the influence of sea-ice thickness observations on the predictability of the sea-ice and atmospheric circulation. We perform paired sets of ensembles with the HadGEM3 GCM starting from different initial conditions in a present-day control run. One set of ensembles start with complete information about the sea-ice conditions, and one set have degraded information. We investigate how the pairs of ensembles predict the subsequent evolution of the sea-ice, sea level pressure and circulation within the Arctic and beyond with the aim of quantifying the value of sea-ice observations for improving predictions.</p>

Dissolved Neodymium Isotopes Trace Origin and Spatiotemporal Evolution of Modern Arctic Sea Ice

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgi Laukert ◽  
Dorothea Bauch ◽  
Ilka Peeken ◽  
Thomas Krumpen ◽  
Kirstin Werner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Surface Waters ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Spatiotemporal Evolution ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Ice Floes

<p>The lifetime and thickness of Arctic sea ice have markedly decreased in the recent past. This affects Arctic marine ecosystems and the biological pump, given that sea ice acts as platform and transport medium of marine and atmospheric nutrients. At the same time sea ice reduces light penetration to the Arctic Ocean and restricts ocean/atmosphere exchange. In order to understand the ongoing changes and their implications, reconstructions of source regions and drift trajectories of Arctic sea ice are imperative. Automated ice tracking approaches based on satellite-derived sea-ice motion products (e.g. ICETrack) currently perform well in dense ice fields, but provide limited information at the ice edge or in poorly ice-covered areas. Radiogenic neodymium (Nd) isotopes (ε<sub>Nd</sub>) have the potential to serve as a chemical tracer of sea-ice provenance and thus may provide information beyond what can be expected from satellite-based assessments. This potential results from pronounced ε<sub>Nd</sub> differences between the distinct marine and riverine sources, which feed the surface waters of the different sea-ice formation regions. We present the first dissolved (< 0.45 µm) Nd isotope and concentration data obtained from optically clean Arctic first- and multi-year sea ice (ice cores) collected from different ice floes across the Fram Strait during the RV POLARSTERN cruise PS85 in 2014. Our data confirm the preservation of the seawater ε<sub>Nd</sub>signatures in sea ice despite low Nd concentrations (on average ~ 6 pmol/kg) resulting from efficient brine rejection. The large range in ε<sub>Nd</sub> signatures (~ -10 to -30) mirrors that of surface waters in various parts of the Arctic Ocean, indicating that differences between ice floes but also between various sections in an individual ice core reflect the origin and evolution of the sea ice over time. Most ice cores have ε<sub>Nd</sub> signatures of around -10, suggesting that the sea ice was formed in well-mixed waters in the central Arctic Ocean and transported directly to the Fram Strait via the Transpolar Drift. Some ice cores, however, also revealed highly unradiogenic signatures (ε<sub>Nd</sub> < ~ -15) in their youngest (bottom) sections, which we attribute to incorporation of meltwater from Greenland into newly grown sea ice layers. Our new approach facilitates the reconstruction of the origin and spatiotemporal evolution of isolated sea-ice floes in the future Arctic.</p>

The Seasonal Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Late Twenty-First Century

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 333-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Deser ◽  
Robert Tomas ◽  
Michael Alexander ◽  
David Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract The authors investigate the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss at the end of the twenty-first century using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a land surface model. The response was obtained from two 60-yr integrations: one with a repeating seasonal cycle of specified sea ice conditions for the late twentieth century (1980–99) and one with that of sea ice conditions for the late twenty-first century (2080–99). In both integrations, a repeating seasonal cycle of SSTs for 1980–99 was prescribed to isolate the impact of projected future sea ice loss. Note that greenhouse gas concentrations remained fixed at 1980–99 levels in both sets of experiments. The twentieth- and twenty-first-century sea ice (and SST) conditions were obtained from ensemble mean integrations of a coupled GCM under historical forcing and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario forcing, respectively. The loss of Arctic sea ice is greatest in summer and fall, yet the response of the net surface energy budget over the Arctic Ocean is largest in winter. Air temperature and precipitation responses also maximize in winter, both over the Arctic Ocean and over the adjacent high-latitude continents. Snow depths increase over Siberia and northern Canada because of the enhanced winter precipitation. Atmospheric warming over the high-latitude continents is mainly confined to the boundary layer (below ∼850 hPa) and to regions with a strong low-level temperature inversion. Enhanced warm air advection by submonthly transient motions is the primary mechanism for the terrestrial warming. A significant large-scale atmospheric circulation response is found during winter, with a baroclinic (equivalent barotropic) vertical structure over the Arctic in November–December (January–March). This response resembles the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in February only. Comparison with the fully coupled model reveals that Arctic sea ice loss accounts for most of the seasonal, spatial, and vertical structure of the high-latitude warming response to greenhouse gas forcing at the end of the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals The melt pond fraction and spectral sea ice albedo retrieval from MERIS data: validation and trends of sea ice albedo and melt pond fraction in the Arctic for years 2002–2011

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 5227-5292 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Istomina ◽  
G. Heygster ◽  
M. Huntemann ◽  
P. Schwarz ◽  
G. Birnbaum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Imaging Spectrometer ◽  
Melt Pond ◽  
Result Show ◽  
Area North ◽  
Ice Floes ◽  
Multiyear Ice

Abstract. The presence of melt ponds on the Arctic sea ice strongly affects the energy balance of the Arctic Ocean in summer. It affects albedo as well as transmittance through the sea ice, which has consequences on the heat balance and mass balance of sea ice. An algorithm to retrieve melt pond fraction and sea ice albedo (Zege et al., 2014) from the MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) data is validated against aerial, ship borne and in situ campaign data. The result show the best correlation for landfast and multiyear ice of high ice concentrations (albedo: R = 0.92, RMS = 0.068, melt pond fraction: R = 0.6, RMS = 0.065). The correlation for lower ice concentrations, subpixel ice floes, blue ice and wet ice is lower due to complicated surface conditions and ice drift. Combining all aerial observations gives a mean albedo RMS equal to 0.089 and a mean melt pond fraction RMS equal to 0.22. The in situ melt pond fraction correlation is R = 0.72 with an RMS = 0.14. Ship cruise data might be affected by documentation of varying accuracy within the ASPeCT protocol, which is the reason for discrepancy between the satellite value and observed value: mean R = 0.21, mean RMS = 0.16. An additional dynamic spatial cloud filter for MERIS over snow and ice has been developed to assist with the validation on swath data. The case studies and trend analysis for the whole MERIS period (2002–2011) show pronounced and reasonable spatial features of melt pond fractions and sea ice albedo. The most prominent feature is the melt onset shifting towards spring (starting already in weeks 3 and 4 of June) within the multiyear ice area, north to the Queen Elizabeth Islands and North Greenland.

The impact of denying sea ice information on the predictability of atmospheric processes over the Arctic and at mid-latitude regions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leandro Ponsoni ◽  
Daniela Flocco ◽  
François Massonnet ◽  
Steve Delhaye ◽  
Ed Hawkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atmospheric Processes ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
The Impact

<p>In this work, we make use of an inter-model comparison and of a perfect model approach, in which model outputs are used as true reference states, to assess the impact that denying sea ice information has on the prediction of atmospheric processes, both over the Arctic and at mid-latitude regions. To do so, two long-term control runs (longer than 250 years) were generated with two state-of-the-art General Circulation Models (GCM), namely EC-Earth and HadGEM. From these two reference states, we have identified three different years in which the Arctic sea ice volume (SIV) was (i) maximum, (ii) minimum and (iii) a representative case for the mean state. By departing from each of these three dates (not necessarily the same for the two models), we generated a set of experiments in which the control runs are restarted both from original and climatological sea ice conditions. Here, climatological sea ice conditions are estimated as the time-average of sea ice parameters from the respective long-term control runs. The experiments are 1-year long and all of them start in January when ice is still thin, snow depth is small, air-ocean temperatures contrast the most and, therefore, the heat conductive flux in sea ice (at the surface) is nearly maximum. To robustly separate the response to degrading the initial sea ice state from background internal variability, each of the two counterfactual experiments (reference and climatological) consists of 50 ensembles members. Threstatedese ensembles are generated by adding small random perturbations to the sea surface temperature (EC-Earth) or to the air temperature (HadGEM) fields. Preliminary results reinforce the importance of having the right sea ice state for improving the (sub-)seasonal prediction of atmospheric parameters (e.g., 2m-temperature and geopotential) and circulation (e.g., Westerlies and Jet Stream) not only over the Arctic, but also at mid-latitude regions.</p>

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