scholarly journals Characterization of Drought Evolution using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in Three Agro-Climatic Zones of Settat Province, Morocco

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 109-122
Author(s):  
El Mzouri M.A. ◽  
Samir K. ◽  
Chlaida M. ◽  
El Mzouri E.
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Distribution ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
Climate Change Issue ◽  
Low Degree ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Climatic Disturbances

Morocco has been experiencing significant climatic disturbances in recent decades. The climate change issue arises mainly in terms of water deficits induced by the decrease in rainfall received and the increase in temperature. The objective of this study is to characterize the drought temporal and spatial distribution and severity within local agro-climatic zones of Settat Province. The study area extends over a distance of 85 km from North to South and concerns three agro-climatic zones. The Standardized Precipitation Index was used for drought analysis and characterization in the three zones for 107 years of rainfall data. Results show that numbers of normal average years are declining, dry years are increasing and humid years are declining in three zones. However, the SPI changes over time are not similar for the three zones, that is, the rainfall deficit is taking place more in the “Favorable Rain-fed” zone and to a low degree in the “Intermediate Rain-fed” but not in the ‘Less Favorable” zone.

scholarly journals Multiscale evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index as a groundwater drought indicator

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 1117-1131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rohini Kumar ◽  
Jude L. Musuuza ◽  
Anne F. Van Loon ◽  
Adriaan J. Teuling ◽  
Roland Barthel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrogeological Characteristics ◽  
Groundwater Drought ◽  
Limited Applicability ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract. The lack of comprehensive groundwater observations at regional and global scales has promoted the use of alternative proxies and indices to quantify and predict groundwater droughts. Among them, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is commonly used to characterize droughts in different compartments of the hydro-meteorological system. In this study, we explore the suitability of the SPI to characterize local- and regional-scale groundwater droughts using observations at more than 2000 groundwater wells in geologically different areas in Germany and the Netherlands. A multiscale evaluation of the SPI is performed using the station data and their corresponding 0.5° gridded estimates to analyze the local and regional behavior of groundwater droughts, respectively. The standardized anomalies in the groundwater heads (SGI) were correlated against SPIs obtained using different accumulation periods. The accumulation periods to achieve maximum correlation exhibited high spatial variability (ranges 3–36 months) at both scales, leading to the conclusion that an a priori selection of the accumulation period (for computing the SPI) would result in inadequate characterization of groundwater droughts. The application of the uniform accumulation periods over the entire domain significantly reduced the correlation between the SPI and SGI (≈ 21–66 %), indicating the limited applicability of the SPI as a proxy for groundwater droughts even at long accumulation times. Furthermore, the low scores of the hit rate (0.3–0.6) and a high false alarm ratio (0.4–0.7) at the majority of the wells and grid cells demonstrated the low reliability of groundwater drought predictions using the SPI. The findings of this study highlight the pitfalls of using the SPI as a groundwater drought indicator at both local and regional scales, and stress the need for more groundwater observations and accounting for regional hydrogeological characteristics in groundwater drought monitoring.

scholarly journals Multiscale evaluation of the standardized precipitation index as a groundwater drought indicator

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 7405-7436 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Kumar ◽  
J. L. Musuuza ◽  
A. F. Van Loon ◽  
A. J. Teuling ◽  
R. Barthel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrogeological Characteristics ◽  
Groundwater Drought ◽  
Limited Applicability ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract. The lack of comprehensive groundwater observations at regional and global scales has promoted the use of alternative proxies and indices to quantify and predict groundwater droughts. Among them, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is commonly used to characterize droughts in different compartments of the hydro-meteorological system. In this study, we explore the suitability of the SPI to characterize local and regional scale groundwater droughts using observations at more than 2000 groundwater wells in geologically different areas in Germany and the Netherlands. A multiscale evaluation of the SPI is performed using the station data and their corresponding 0.5° gridded estimates to analyze the local and regional behavior of groundwater droughts, respectively. The standardized anomalies in the groundwater heads (SGI) were correlated against SPIs obtained using different accumulation periods. The accumulation periods to achieve maximum correlation exhibited high spatial variability (ranges 3 to 36 months) at both scales, leading to the conclusion that an a priori selection of the accumulation period (for computing the SPI) would result in inadequate characterization of groundwater droughts. The application of the uniform accumulation periods over the entire domain significantly reduced the correlation between SPI and SGI (≈ 21–66 %) indicating the limited applicability of SPI as a proxy for groundwater droughts even at long accumulation times. Furthermore, the low scores of the hit rate (0.3–0.6) and high false alarm ratio (0.4–0.7) at the majority of the wells and grid cells demonstrated the low reliability of groundwater drought predictions using the SPI. The findings of this study highlight the pitfalls of using the SPI as a groundwater drought indicator at both local and regional scales, and stress the need for more groundwater observations and accounting for regional hydrogeological characteristics in groundwater drought monitoring.

scholarly journals Hydrological response to different time scales of climatological drought: an evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index in a mountainous Mediterranean basin

2005 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 523-533 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. Vicente-Serrano ◽  
J. I. López-Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Different Time Scales

Abstract. At present, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is the most widely used drought index to provide good estimations about the intensity, magnitude and spatial extent of droughts. The main advantage of the SPI in comparison with other indices is the fact that the SPI enables both determination of drought conditions at different time scales and monitoring of different drought types. It is widely accepted that SPI time scales affect different sub-systems in the hydrological cycle due to the fact that the response of the different water usable sources to precipitation shortages can be very different. The long time scales of SPI are related to hydrological droughts (river flows and reservoir storages). Nevertheless, few analyses empirically verify these statements or the usefulness of the SPI time scales to monitor drought. In this paper, the SPI at different time scales is compared with surface hydrological variables in a big closed basin located in the central Spanish Pyrenees. We provide evidence about the way in which the longer (>12 months) SPI time scales may not be useful for drought quantification in this area. In general, the surface flows respond to short SPI time scales whereas the reservoir storages respond to longer time scales (7–10 months). Nevertheless, important seasonal differences can be identified in the SPI-usable water sources relationships. This suggests that it is necessary to test the drought indices and time scales in relation to their usefulness for monitoring different drought types under different environmental conditions and water demand situations.

scholarly journals Seasonal forecasts of droughts in African basins using the Standardized Precipitation Index

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 2359-2373 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Dutra ◽  
F. Di Giuseppe ◽  
F. Wetterhall ◽  
F. Pappenberger
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract. Vast parts of Africa rely on the rainy season for livestock and agriculture. Droughts can have a severe impact in these areas, which often have a very low resilience and limited capabilities to mitigate drought impacts. This paper assesses the predictive capabilities of an integrated drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting system (up to 5 months lead time) based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The system is constructed by extending near-real-time monthly precipitation fields (ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis and the Climate Anomaly Monitoring System–Outgoing Longwave Radiation Precipitation Index, CAMS-OPI) with monthly forecasted fields as provided by the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system. The forecasts were then evaluated over four basins in Africa: the Blue Nile, Limpopo, Upper Niger, and Upper Zambezi. There are significant differences in the quality of the precipitation between the datasets depending on the catchments, and a general statement regarding the best product is difficult to make. The generally low number of rain gauges and their decrease in the recent years limits the verification and monitoring of droughts in the different basins, reinforcing the need for a strong investment on climate monitoring. All the datasets show similar spatial and temporal patterns in southern and north-western Africa, while there is a low correlation in the equatorial area, which makes it difficult to define ground truth and choose an adequate product for monitoring. The seasonal forecasts have a higher reliability and skill in the Blue Nile, Limpopo and Upper Niger in comparison with the Zambezi. This skill and reliability depend strongly on the SPI timescale, and longer timescales have more skill. The ECMWF seasonal forecasts have predictive skill which is higher than using climatology for most regions. In regions where no reliable near-real-time data is available, the seasonal forecast can be used for monitoring (first month of forecast). Furthermore, poor-quality precipitation monitoring products can reduce the potential skill of SPI seasonal forecasts in 2 to 4 months lead time.

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