Future changes in drought characteristics over South Korea using multi regional climate models with the standardized precipitation index

2016 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeon-Woo Choi ◽  
Joong-Bae Ahn ◽  
Myoung-Seok Suh ◽  
Dong-Hyun Cha ◽  
Dong-Kyou Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

A statistical framework for evaluating EURO-CORDEX simulations and derived drought characteristics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Peres ◽  
Alfonso Senatore ◽  
Paola Nanni ◽  
Antonino Cancelliere ◽  
Giuseppe Mendicino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Monitoring Networks ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

<p>Regional climate models (RCMs) are commonly used for assessing, at proper spatial resolutions, future impacts of climate change on hydrological events. In this study, we propose a statistical methodological framework to assess the quality of the EURO-CORDEX RCMs concerning their ability to simulate historic observed climate (temperature and precipitation). We specifically focus on the models’ performance in reproducing drought characteristics (duration, accumulated deficit, intensity, and return period) determined by the theory of runs at seasonal and annual timescales, by comparison with high-density and high-quality ground-based observational datasets. In particular, the proposed methodology is applied to the Sicily and Calabria regions (Southern Italy), where long historical precipitation and temperature series were recorded by the ground-based monitoring networks operated by the former Regional Hydrographic Offices. The density of the measurements is considerably greater than observational gridded datasets available at the European level, such as E-OBS or CRU-TS. Results show that among the models based on the combination of the HadGEM2 global circulation model (GCM) with the CLM-Community RCMs are the most skillful in reproducing precipitation and temperature variability as well as drought characteristics. Nevertheless, the ranking of the models may slightly change depending on the specific variable analysed, as well as the temporal and spatial scale of interest. From this point of view, the proposed methodology highlights the skills and weaknesses of the different configurations, aiding on the selection of the most suitable climate model for assessing climate change impacts on drought processes and the underlying variables.</p>

Evaluation of summer precipitation over Far East Asia and South Korea simulated by multiple regional climate models

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 2270-2284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changyong Park ◽  
Dong‐Hyun Cha ◽  
Gayoung Kim ◽  
Gil Lee ◽  
Dong‐Kyou Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Far East ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Regional Climate Models

scholarly journals Assessing the Added Value of Dynamical Downscaling Using the Standardized Precipitation Index

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared H. Bowden ◽  
Kevin D. Talgo ◽  
Tanya L. Spero ◽  
Christopher G. Nolte
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Tropical Storms ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Resources Planning

In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to ascertain the added value of dynamical downscaling over the contiguous United States. WRF is used as a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale reanalysis fields to compare values of SPI over drought timescales that have implications for agriculture and water resources planning. The regional climate generated by WRF has the largest improvement over reanalysis for SPI correlation with observations as the drought timescale increases. This suggests that dynamically downscaled fields may be more reliable than larger-scale fields for water resource applications (e.g., water storage within reservoirs). WRF improves the timing and intensity of moderate to extreme wet and dry periods, even in regions with homogenous terrain. This study also examines changes in SPI from the extreme drought of 1988 and three “drought busting” tropical storms. Each of those events illustrates the importance of using downscaling to resolve the spatial extent of droughts. The analysis of the “drought busting” tropical storms demonstrates that while the impact of these storms on ending prolonged droughts is improved by the RCM relative to the reanalysis, it remains underestimated. These results illustrate the importance and some limitations of using RCMs to project drought.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal drought analysis by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in Sichuan Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Changhong Liu ◽  
Cuiping Yang ◽  
Qi Yang ◽  
Jiao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Sichuan Province ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

AbstractDrought refers to a meteorological disaster that causes insufficient soil moisture and damage to crop water balance due to long-term lack of precipitation. With the increasing shortage of water resources, drought has become one of the hot issues of global concern. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) can effectively reflect the changes in drought characteristics of different geomorphologies in Sichuan on time and space scales, to explore the difference in drought characteristics between different physiognomy types in Sichuan Province, We calculated the SPI and SPEI values based on the data of 44 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2019 and used Mann–Kendall trend test and multivariable linear regression method (MLR) to quantify the significance of the drought characteristic trends at different time and space scales. The results as follow: (1) The SPEI drought trend in plain and hilly regions was greater than that in plateau and mountain regions on all time scales (− 0.039 year−1 for 1-month in hilly, − 0.035 year−1 for 1-month in plain, − 0.14 year−1 for 1-month in plateau, − 0.026 year−1 for 1-month in mountain) and the magnitude of trend of eastern (− 4.4 to 0.1 year−1) was lager than western (− 2.1 to 2.7 year−1), means that the drought trends transfer from northwest to east. (2) The drought intensity in the western region gradually increased (0.54–1.05) and drought events mainly occurred in the southwest plateau and central mountainous regions (24–47 times), means that drought meteorological hotspots were mainly concentrated in the Sichuan basin. (3) The MLR indicated altitude (H) is not the main influencing factor that causes the spatial unevenness of precipitation in Sichuan Province, but altitude (H), temperature (T), longitude (Lo) and latitude (La) can co-determined the precipitation. The results of this study are instructive and practical for drought assessment, risk management and application decision-making in Sichuan Province, and have guiding significance for agricultural disaster prevention, mitigation and agricultural irrigation in Sichuan Province.

scholarly journals FUTURE DROUGHT PROJECTION FOR THE GREEK REGION

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 1038
Author(s):  
C. Anagnostopoulou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Spi Index ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Greek Region

Drought is one of the most important factors of change. The epi-drops drought in one area are complex because they simultaneously affect many areas, such as climate, agriculture, the economy and in general the structure of society. This study deals only with the meteorological drought, particularly considering the phenomenon of drought through the index Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Greece is characterized by frequent drought episodes that often exceed 10 consecutive days of drought (dry spells). Also, in recent years the area probably climate models have been used in a wide study of the impact of climate change in different regions on the planet. Rainfall data from five regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to calculate the SPI index in the Greek area, the reporting period and two subsequent periods by the end of the 21st century. All models show a decreasing trend of the SPI median during the period studied. For the first future period 2021-2050, there is a clear signal for a dry decade towards the end of the period that is most apparent in southern and island regions. On the other hand, in the second future period 2071-2100, there is an increasing trend resulting to normal or wetter years.

scholarly journals Analysis of Long-Term Variations of Drought Characteristics Using Standardized Precipitation Index over Zambia

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1268
Author(s):  
Bathsheba Musonda ◽  
Yuanshu Jing ◽  
Vedaste Iyakaremye ◽  
Moses Ojara
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
Seasonal Time Scale ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

This study examines long-term spatial and temporal trends of drought characteristics based on the Standardized Precipitation Index at three different time scales (3, 6, and 12 months) over Zambia from 1981 to 2017. Drought characteristic conditions such as duration, severity, and intensity at monthly, seasonal, and annual levels were analyzed to investigate the drought patterns over Zambia. The results show a significant increase in drought events over the southwestern regions and a decrease over the northeastern regions. It is in this regard that two stations from different locations (southwest and northeast) were analyzed. The results show increasing trends of drought over Sesheke (southwest) and decreasing trends over Kasama (northeast). More drought impacts are felt over southern compared to northern areas, which poses a serious concern to both agriculture and hydrological industries over the drought-prone areas of Southern Zambia. However, the analysis further shows that droughts were more intense, persistent, and severe over the southwest, while moderate droughts were found in some few areas of Northeast Zambia. The Mann–Kendall test trend and slope indicated that both annual and seasonal drought have increased. However, drought increment at an annual level shows a low magnitude as compared to the seasonal level. This suggested the importance of evaluating drought at an interannual and seasonal time scale over Zambia. Specifically, the drought increased determinedly before 2010 and became erratic between 2010 and 2017 with considerable regional variation. Zambia experienced moderate to severe droughts during 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2006–2005, and 2015–2016, which resulted in serious damages to the environment and society. According to the findings of this study, it is suggested that the implications of drought can be managed by creating strategies and adaptation measures.

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