scholarly journals Forecasting Tourism Demand with Composite Indicator Approach for Fiji

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Ann-Ni Soh ◽  
Chin-Hong Puah ◽  
M. Affendy Arip
Keyword(s):  
Composite Indicator ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Seasonal Adjustment ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Indicator Approach ◽  
Market Outlook ◽  
Average Lead

This study attempts to scrutinize the fluctuations of the Fijian tourism market and forecast the early warning signals of tourism market vulnerability using the tourism composite indicator (TCI). The data employed on a monthly basis from 2000M01 to 2017M12 and the indicator construction steps were adopted from the ideology of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). A parsimonious macroeconomic and non-economic fundamental determinant are included for the construction of TCI. Subsequently, the procedure then employed the seasonal adjustment using Census X-12, Christiano-Fitzgerald filtering approach, and Bry-Boschan dating algorithm. Empirical evidence highlighted the signalling attributes against Fijian tourism demand with an average lead time of 2.75 months and around 54 percent of directional accuracy rate, which is significant at 5 percent significance level. Thus, the non-parametric technique can forecast the tourism market outlook and the constructed TCI can provide information content from a macroeconomic perspective for policymakers, tourism market players and investors.

scholarly journals Constructing a Composite Leading Indicator for the Global Crude Oil Price

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Mei-Teing Chong ◽  
Chin-Hong Puah ◽  
Shazali Abu Mansor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Indicator Approach ◽  
The World

Crude oil, as the most traded commodity in the world, exhibits prices with a clear influence on other commodities in the worldwide market. It also poses implications regarding the economic growth of oil-exporting and oil-importing nations. This study provides an unprecedented method of employing the indicator approach as proposed by the Conference Board, National Bureau of Economic Research, to construct a leading indicator for the global crude oil price. The results reveal that the constructed oil price indicator can predict the cyclical movement of the oil price by moving in advance of 3.5 months on average. This finding could provide better signaling to oil-related nations as well as other commodities that consider crude oil to be a leader in the market.

scholarly journals Assessment of Factors and Indicators Influencing the Cyclical Development of the Economy of Azerbaijan

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 100-121
Author(s):  
E. M. Ahmadova
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Scientific Methods ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Indicator Approach ◽  
Fundamental Research

We are proposing the results of economic development factors analysis, and there influence in forming and display of the economic cycles. The purpose of this article is to identify significant indicators of the cyclical development Azerbaijan economy for the capable of predicting and regulating phases of the onset of business cycle. Were checking 20 different indicators based by the annual data of the State Statistical Committee from 1998 to 2018. The relationship and influence of interest rates and the cyclical Azerbaijan economy development were examined. The methodological basis of this work became an analysis of such fundamental research data as papers IMF and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBEI) of the United States. Scientific methods of our research were an indicator approach, complemented by a qualitative analysis and a correlation-regression analysis. The calculations were performed by the freely distributed modern software - the statistical environment R, the most dynamically developing program in its class. So acyclic, countercyclical, and pro-cyclic indicators were identified by us. The features of the influence of these indicators on cyclic development in modern conditions were identified, their significance was determined. It was concluded that the possibility of economic cycles forecasting by the various phases indicators contributes to the modeling of economic activity. The results of the research can be applied both to monitor the development of the Azerbaijan economy and to predict the onset of the corresponding economic phases with the aim of adapting and reducing crises’ negative impact at the micro and macro levels.

scholarly journals Tourism Forecasting and Tackling Fluctuating Patterns: A Composite Leading Indicator Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-204
Author(s):  
Soh Ann-Ni ◽  
Puah Chin-Hong ◽  
Arip M. Affendy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Transition ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Markov Switching Model ◽  
Time Duration ◽  
Markov Switching Models ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Indicator Approach ◽  
Average Lead

AbstractA growing interest is surfacing toward the non-linearities in tourism demand forecasting. This paper aims to construct a tourism composite indicator to anticipate the cyclical movement for the tourism demand in Fiji. The time duration tackled in the current study is under the span of approximately two decades from 2000 to 2017. Apart from an indicator construction approach and turning point dating algorithm, we proposed a two regime Markov switching model to analyse the Fijian tourism cycle. The empirical results revealed the composite leading indicator accorded a signalling approach for Fijian tourism demand with an average lead time of 2.75 months. Furthermore, the prior-recognition of the tourism economic transition with adequate dating evaluation of the tourism cycle is obtained from the filtered probabilities through the Markov switching models.

Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: India. By Jagdish N. Bhagwati and T.N. Sirinivasan. New York Columbia University Press (Published by the National Bureau of Economic Research 1975) 261 pages.

1977 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-114
Author(s):  
Abdur Razzaq Shahid
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Columbia University ◽  
The Government ◽  
Exchange Control

This volume on India is one of a series of research projects on exchange control, liberalization, and economic development, undertaken for many less developed countries. The study deals with three major topics: exchange control, liberalization, and growth. First, under 'The Anatomy of Exchange Control', the methods of allocation and intervention in the foreign trade and payments practised by the government during the restrictive period 1956-66 and their economic impact are discussed. Then, a detailed analysis of the 'Liberalization Episode' which covers the policies in the period 1966-68, including the June 1966 devaluation, and the episode's effect on price level, economic activity, and exports is given. Finally, the overall growth effects of the foreign trade regime (broadly defined as exchange rate policy plus the frame-work of relevant domestic policies such as industrial licensing), and their possible contribution to India's rather unsatisfactory economic performance are examined.

Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: TURKEY. By Anne O. Kneger. New York : Columbia University Press 1975. (Published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., New York) xxiii + 339 pp. Price $ 17.50 for hard cover ; $ 5.00 for paperback.

1975 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 377-380
Author(s):  
Javed Ashraf
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
New York ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Columbia University ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Exchange Control

The book is the first of a series of studies on Exchange Control, Liberalization and Economic Development sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research, New York. The ten-country study, of which the book under review is a part, provides an in-depth analysis of three major areas : The anatomy of exchange control along with its implications, the episode of the liberalization of the payments regime, and the relationship of growth with the exchange control regime. The findings of the individual country-studies have been consolidated in an overall synthesis. However, each study is complete in itself in accordance with the needs of scholars having an interest in only some of the studies. The book under review seeks to analyse Turkey's trade and payments regime and the effect that the latter has had on the country's economic growth. Whereas quite a few other factors are instrumental in development (e.g. agricultural productivity, levels of education, political and social stability, etc.), the focus on foreign trade alone is justified by the author on the grounds of the tremendous amount of government influence in foreign trade. Moreover, the author believes that an intensive study of the trade-growth relationship is more rewarding than: a general survey of all factors related to economic growth.

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