Intelligent POIs Recommender System Based on Time Series Analysis with Seasonal Adjustment

Recommender systems have been applied on a variety of applications including movies, music, news, books, research articles, search queries, and travel information. Instead of searching travel information from the extremely huge amount of travel data, a personalized travel recommender system is desired. However, an inappropriate travel recommendation may result from a wrong season, even if it is already a correct location. The current recommender systems from time to time make an inappropriate commendation without considering the seasonal factor. In order to resolve the discrepancy, the seasonal factor should have been taken into consideration when making a good travel recommender system. Therefore, this study has taken the trend analysis, time series, and seasonal factor into considerations to cope with the above mentioned discrepancy and to make the travel recommender system renders a better fit.

Seasonal adjustment of the Spanish sales daily data

We present a procedure to perform seasonal adjustment over daily sales data. The model adjusts daily information from the Immediate Supply of Information System for Value Added Tax declaration forms compiled by the Spanish Tax Agency. The procedure performs signal extraction and forecasting at the daily frequency, by means of an unobserved components model. The daily information allows a permanently updated monitoring of the short-term economic conditions of the Spanish economy.

Recovering cointegration via wavelets in the presence of non-linear patterns

Johansen’s Cointegration Test (JCT) performs remarkably well in finding stable bivariate cointegration relationships. Nonetheless, the JCT is not necessarily designed to detect such relationships in presence of non-linear patterns such as structural breaks or cycles that fall in the low frequency portion of the spectrum. Seasonal adjustment procedures might not detect such non-linear patterns, and thus, we expose the difficulty in identifying cointegrating relations under the traditional use of JCT. Within several Monte Carlo experiments, we show that wavelets can empower more the JCT framework than the traditional seasonal adjustment methodologies, allowing for identification of hidden cointegrating relationships. Moreover, we confirm these results using seasonally adjusted time series as US consumption and income, gross national product (GNP) and money supply M1 and GNP and M2.

Seasonality in Tourism: Do Senior Programs Mitigate It?

Seasonality is a widely recognised and accredited phenomenon known to cause an imbalance in tourism activity throughout the year, prompting tourist destinations, both public and private, to consider how best to plan the use of their resources. One way of mitigating the economic imbalances that seasonality can cause is to find strategies for seasonal adjustment, such as travel programmes aimed at the elderly. This paper analyses the seasonality of tourism activity in some EU countries, and in particular in Spain. Different indicators are used to compare the results and carry out a sensitivity analysis. The study then focuses on tourism programmes for the elderly in Spain to see whether this type of programme helps to alleviate the seasonality of tourism activity. To corroborate this, an econometric model is specified and estimated, which enables the scope of these programmes to be compared.

Impact of COVID-19 on latent emissiveness of residents in China: Based on the X-12-ARIMA additive seasonal adjustment model

With Census X-12 model and ARIMA model, this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the latent emissiveness of Chinese residents which happened at the end of 2019. The results show that: First, during this epidemic period, the overall latent emissiveness index of Chinese residents decreased by 53.51%, and showed certain spatial difference, and it is not the area with the largest number of confirmed cases, and the area with the most serious epidemic situation, the greater the loss of latent emissiveness. Second, the residents’ willingness to travel has a strong fit with the development stage of the epidemic, but there is also a certain lag. In other words, the more severe the epidemic, the lower the willingness of residents to travel; When the epidemic is under control, people’s willingness to travel will rise again, but the rise time will be delayed. Third, compared with the period of SARS in 2003, the impact of COVID-19 on China residents’ latent emissiveness is greater and more profound, three times as much as that of the SARS period. In view of the serious impact of the epidemic on Chinese residents’ willingness to travel, finally, several development suggestions are put forward on how to re-enhance people’s travel information and revitalize the tourism industry in the process of normalizing the epidemic prevention and control.

Turismo religioso e sviluppo delle aree rurali. Considerazioni sul caso della Sardegna

Religious tourism is a very important sector in the sphere of cultural tourism and can be an authentic engine of development, especially for rural areas, which are the subject of various policies implemented at a regional and national level within specific European programmes aimed at improving territorial cohesion and increasing social and economic development. While it is true that the most iconic sanctuaries are the main attraction, it is equally true that if adequately exploited, minor religious sites can also represent a potential resource capable of attracting new and more consistent flows of visitors. The paths of faith could be a possible answer to these development needs given that, as established by the European Council, they are a useful instrument for increasing the competitiveness and the development of the traversed areas, also strengthening their identity. In Sardinia, an attempt in this direction can be identified in the actions implemented by the Region through the establishment of the Excursion Network of Sardinia, which has recognised the importance of the “itineraries” as a tool for seasonal adjustment and sustainable development: the setting up of a Regional Cadastre for Paths and Horse trails and an organised network, such as the Sardinia Trekking Portal, to be implemented with religious itineraries, can thus be interpreted as a marketing action aimed at promoting the paths and trails.

Wellness Tourism—New Challenges and Opportunities for Tourism in Salou

Following a long history of using various strategies and policies for diversification and seasonal adjustment in the face of the challenges of achieving economic, social, and environmental sustainability, sun and beach destinations should also consider targeting the wellness tourism market as a post pandemic opportunity and long-term solution. Salou is a mature sun and beach destination in the Mediterranean, but one which, for some time, has had an increasing commitment to family and sports tourism as a result of a strategic renewal process. Now, with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the destination management organization is considering the evolution of the model, the internalization of sustainability as a fundamental value, and the impact of different markets. In this study, we examined the challenges the Salou Tourist Board has faced during the development of a post pandemic model for sustainable tourism and what strategies it has adopted in response. We also considered the opportunities and competitive advantages that Salou has in the field of wellness tourism. The results obtained should encourage the continuation of work that promotes the environmental axis of sustainability and adds value to the natural resources on which it depends, including the sea and the landscape, while maintaining the environmental quality of the resources.