scholarly journals Constructing a Financial Condition Index for a Small-Open Economy: The Case of Malta

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Borg Ian ◽  
Micallef Brian
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Condition Index ◽  
Predictive Capacity ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Financial Condition ◽  
Financial Conditions

This paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Malta for the period 1996-2017. This index provides a summary measure of financial conditions by combining several financial variables, both domestic and foreign, that influence economic activity. The indicators in the FCI are grouped in four categories: interest rates, bank balance sheet, asset prices and external variables. The weights are derived using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and cross-checked using simulations from STREAM, the Central Bank of Malta’s macro-econometric model. Financial conditions in Malta were relatively benign in the mid-to-late 90s, followed by a period of tightening in the early 2000s. Financial conditions improved again during the pre-crisis period but deteriorated during the financial crisis and remained tight until 2013. In recent years these have recovered and became broadly neutral by 2017. The proposed FCIs correlate the most with one to three quarters ahead real GDP growth, suggesting potential predictive capacity for short-term forecasting.

Estimating Financial Conditions Index for India

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam ◽  
Rajesh Kavediya ◽  
Jessica M. Anthony
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Financial Condition ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Condition Indices ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This article constructs financial condition indices (FCIs) for India and explores their predictive ability of business cycle. The estimated FCIs indicate substantial tightening in financial conditions in India since the global financial crisis barring a brief phase during 2010–11. Unlike in the literature, it shows the importance of standardising the financial variables by removing the influence of unit of measurement and not purging the influence of past economic activity as that improves the forecasting ability of FCI about business cycle. In predicting GDP growth, principal component analysis-based FCI outperforms vector autoregression-based FCI but both are better than OECD composite leading indicator, and indicate an upturn in business cycle in India in 2015–16. JEL Classification: E5, E17, E44

scholarly journals A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Fanelli ◽  
Ludwig Straub
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Pecuniary Externality ◽  
Optimal Intervention ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Intervention Policy

Abstract We study a real small open economy with two key ingredients (1) partial segmentation of home and foreign bond markets and (2) a pecuniary externality that makes the real exchange rate excessively volatile in response to capital flows. Partial segmentation implies that, by intervening in the bond markets, the central bank can affect the exchange rate and the spread between home- and foreign-bond yields. Such interventions allow the central bank to address the pecuniary externality, but they are also costly, as foreigners make carry trade profits. We analytically characterize the optimal intervention policy that solves this trade-off: (1) the optimal policy leans against the wind, stabilizing the exchange rate; (2) it involves smooth spreads but allows exchange rates to jump; (3) it partly relies on “forward guidance,” with non-zero interventions even after the shock has subsided; (4) it requires credibility, in that central banks do not intervene without commitment. Finally, we shed light on the global consequences of widespread interventions, using a multi-country extension of our model. We find that, left to themselves, countries over-accumulate reserves, reducing welfare and leading to inefficiently low world interest rates.

The Term Structure of Interest Rates In a Small Open Economy

1981 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Beenstock ◽  
J. Andrew Longbottom
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy

scholarly journals Interest Rates, Leverage, and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Financial Frictions

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 153-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrés Fernández ◽  
Adam Gulan
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Business Cycle Model

Countercyclical country interest rates have been shown to be an important characteristic of business cycles in emerging markets. In this paper we provide a microfounded rationale for this pattern by linking interest rate spreads to the dynamics of corporate leverage. For this purpose we embed a financial accelerator into a business cycle model of a small open economy and estimate it on a novel panel dataset for emerging economies that merges macroeconomic and financial data. The model accounts well for the empirically observed countercyclicality of interest rates and leverage, as well as for other stylized facts. (JEL E13, E32, E43, E44, F41, O11)

scholarly journals Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (6) ◽  
pp. 2530-2561 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde ◽  
Pablo Guerrón-Quintana ◽  
Juan F Rubio-Ramírez ◽  
Martin Uribe
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
The Real ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility ◽  
Business Cycle Model

We show how changes in the volatility of the real interest rate at which small open emerging economies borrow have an important effect on variables like output, consumption, investment, and hours. We start by documenting the strong evidence of time-varying volatility in the real interest rates faced by four emerging economies: Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, and Venezuela. We estimate a stochastic volatility process for real interest rates. Then, we feed this process in a standard small open economy business cycle model. We find that an increase in real interest rate volatility triggers a fall in output, consumption, investment, hours, and debt. (JEL E13, E20, E32, E43, F32, F43, 011)

scholarly journals Assessment of Financial Conditions of South African Municipalities: A Unique Model for KwaZulu-Natal

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewert P.J. Kleynhans ◽  
Clive Coetzee
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Condition Index ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Financial Position ◽  
Financial Condition ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Measurement Framework ◽  
Kwazulu Natal

Most South African municipalities experience significant financial problems. This study investigates the financial conditions of municipalities in the province of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). It was found that the most important factors which influence their financial position are unobservable municipally unique factors. The ratio of people of non-working age to the total population is also significant in influencing the financial position of municipalities. This article designed a unique financial conditions measurement framework to evaluate the financial status of local governments. Two independent instruments were developed, first to measure the financial quality of a municipality, and secondly, to identify and examine a number of socio-economic factors possibly affecting the financial condition of these municipalities. The study developed a composite financial condition index (CFCI) and a financial conditions management index (FCMI), and then tested the framework on 51 municipalities in the KZN province from 2009 to 2015. The study used a panel data approach with two financial condition indices as indicators. The findings suggest that, in the absence of individual effects, most of the selected socio-economic variables are relevant in terms of explaining some of the variations in municipal financial conditions. Cross-section fixed-effects do, however, significantly improve the overall performance of the model, suggesting that it is rather the unobservable municipally unique factors affecting municipal financial conditions. 

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