scholarly journals Credit Portfolios, Credibility Theory, and Dynamic Empirical Bayes

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tze Leung Lai

We begin with a review of (a) the pricing theory of multiname credit derivatives to hedge the credit risk of a portfolio of corporate bonds and (b) current approaches to modeling correlated default intensities. We then consider pricing of insurance contracts using credibility theory in actuarial science. After a brief discussion of the similarities and differences of both pricing theories, we propose a new unified approach, which uses recent advances in dynamic empirical Bayes modeling, to evolutionary credibility in insurance rate-making and default modeling of credit portfolios.

Author(s):  
Jürgen Franke ◽  
Wolfgang Karl Härdle ◽  
Christian Matthias Hafner

1966 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcel Derron

It is often found even today in Europe that for certain statistical investigations the conclusion is drawn that the extent of the available statistical data is not sufficient. Going to the root of this pretention, however, we notice that there is a want of clear conception about the extent that is in fact necessary in order that a valid conclusion may with greater probability be arrived at. This, for instance, is the case when obvious tariff reductions are shirked from by entrenching oneself behind the law of large numbers, which by its very nature can in actual practice be never accomplished in its inherent sense.Apart from a proper understanding of the limits within which a set of statistical data may subject to certain assumptions be ascribed full measure of credence, there is further a lack of the necessary tools that would permit, on the basis of ascertainable values alone, far-reaching conclusions to be drawn or a maximum of useful information to be gathered from an investigation of which the scope is evidently not sufficient.Credibility Theory, of which Prof. Mowbray [4] may be regarded as the initiator, was evolved in the U.S.A. about 50 years ago to fill this lacunae. The development of Credibility Theory may be considered as one of the most significant contributions of American actuarial science, and it is frankly astonishing that apart from certain specific realisations in the collective risk theory which are fairly closely related to Credibility Theory, it is only in recent years that this interesting topic has met with the required attention in Europe.


2006 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresia Theurl ◽  
Jan Pieter Krahnen ◽  
Thomas P. Gehrig

AbstractFrom Theresia Theurl’s point of view financial markets exhibit certain features that turn them inherently unstable. Therefore, economic policy measures were necessary and advisable, but they should not take the shape of isolated and selected interventions. Rather, these measures of financial market supervision and regulation had to be integrated into a comprehensive concept of micro- and macroeconomic policy in order to allow the creation of stabilizing trust.In his contribution, Jan Pieter Krahnen maintains, that the systemic risk of banks and financial institutions has changed and risen in recent years. According to his view, this is due to a more widespread use of credit derivatives. Although they may cause a more efficient distribution of credit risk in the banking sector, at the same time they could mean a higher vulnerability of the banking sector to system-wide contagion effects of credit risk. As such, financial market supervision as well as the Basel II rules on Capital Standards should take into account not only the credit risk exposure of individual financial institutions, but also correlation measures of their share prices.For Thomas Gehrig, empirical anomalies demonstrate the relevance of awareness and trust in financial markets. This note would argue in favor of social policies that enhance public awareness in financial markets as a basis for trust. And so naturally, these policies need to be complemented by a strong financial order that aims at minimizing behavioral risks. He says, trust requires a regulatory framework that reduces manipulation by private as well as public interests. A competitive order complemented by strong regulatory oversight may go a long way towards generating liquid financial markets and the creation of trust. Trust by individuals, however, would be most strongly encouraged when individuals are entrusted in managing their own financial market activities including their own pension arrangements.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 241
Author(s):  
RAIN FERNANDO BANGUN ◽  
I NYOMAN WIDANA ◽  
DESAK PUTU EKA NILAKUSMAWATI

Determination of insurance premiums is very important the calculation must be done carefully so that there is experience losses. The purpose of this research is to find out the application of empirical Bayes credibility theory Model 1 and estimate of the credibility premium on general insurance. A method that can help in overcoming these problems, that is empirical Bayes credibility theory Model 1, results of the estimated credibility premium credibility (in Euros) for insurance companies Alianz, Csob, Generali, Koop, Unisqa, and Wusten respectively as follows: 46.774811, 7.801307, 10.368991, 58.812250, 6.703035, and 5.091605.  These results, the average claim is greater than the credibility premium, so that insurance companies can reserve premiums for the future.


1976 ◽  
Vol 13 (01) ◽  
pp. 176-182
Author(s):  
Larry Lee ◽  
W. A. Thompson

Aging, of biological and mechanical systems, is well described as ‘deterioration of the power to withstand destruction.’ The failure-rate concept is the mathematical way of describing aging. Failure rates have been defined for discrete and continuous time and used extensively, particularly in actuarial science and reliability. This paper assumes an arbitrary scale on which an object encounters stress, and develops a theory of failure rate with respect to ‘stress-time’ in analogy with the discrete- and continuous-time cases.


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