On Approximate Pricing of Spread Options via Conditional Value-at-Risk

It is widely accepted to use conditional value-at-risk for risk management needs and option pricing. As a rule, there are difficulties in exact calculations of conditional value-at-risk. In the paper, we use the conditional value-at-risk methodology to price spread options, extending some approximation approaches for these needs. Our results we illustrate by numerical calculations which demonstrate their effectiveness. We also show how conditional value-at-risk pricing can help with regulatory needs inspired by the Basel Accords.

Real estate risk, yield modelling and market sentiment: the impact on pricing in European office markets

PurposeThe financial and economic turmoil that resulted from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), included a marked increase in the volatility in real estate markets. Property asset prices were impacted by the real economy and market sentiment, particularly concerning the determination of risk. In an economic downturn, the perception of investment risk becomes increasingly important relative to overall total returns, and thus impacts on yields and performance of assets. In a recovery phase, and particularly within an environment of historically low government bonds, risk and return compete for importance. The aim of this paper is to assess the interrelationships and impacts on pricing between real estate risk, yield modelling outcomes and market sentiment in selective European city office markets.Design/methodology/approachThis paper specifically considers the modelling of commercial property pricing in relation to the appetite for risk in the financial markets. The paper expands on previous work by determining a specific measure of risk pricing in relationship to changing financial market sentiment. The methodology underpinning the research specifically examines the scope for using national and international risk pricing within specific real estate markets in Europe.FindingsThis paper addresses whether there is a difference between the impact of risk on the pricing of real estate in international versus regional cities in Europe. The analysis, therefore, determines which city centre office markets in Europe have been most impacted by globalisation including the magnitude on real estate prices and market volatility. The outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continues to drive yield movements under different market conditions.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper considers the driving forces which have led to the volatile movements of yields, emanating from the GFC.Practical implicationsThis paper considers the property market effects on pricing of commercial real estate and the drivers in selected European cities.Originality/valueThe outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continue to drive the yield movements in different real estate markets in Europe.

Correction to: Carry Trade Returns and Segmented Risk Pricing

A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-021-09708-3

Regime Switching in High-Tech ETFs: Idiosyncratic Volatility and Return

The volatility of asset returns can be classified into market and firm-specific volatility, otherwise known as idiosyncratic volatility. Idiosyncratic volatility is increasing over time with some literature attributing this to the IT revolution. An understanding of the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and return is indeed relevant for idiosyncratic risk pricing and asset allocation, in a context of emerging technologies. The case of high-tech exchange traded funds (ETFs) is especially interesting, since ETFs introduce new noise to the market due to arbitrage activities and high frequency trading. This article examines the relevance of idiosyncratic risk in explaining the return of nine high-tech ETFs. The Markov regime-switching (MRS) methodology for heteroscedastic regimes has been applied. We found that high-tech ETF returns are negatively related to idiosyncratic risk during the high volatility regime and positively related to idiosyncratic risk during the low volatility regime. These results suggest that idiosyncratic volatility matters in high-tech ETF pricing, and that the effects are driven by volatility regimes, leading to changes across them.

Carry-Trade Returns and Segmented Risk Pricing

The returns to carry-trades are controversially discussed. There seems to be no unifying risk-based explanation of currency returns and stock returns, while the countries’ interest rate differential plays a leading part in the carry-trade performance. Therefore, this paper addresses carry-trade returns from a risk-pricing perspective and examines if these returns can be connected to cross-country differences in risk pricing in the interest-rate market compared to the stock market. Data from Thomson Reuters Datastream and Federal Reserve Economic Data covering Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Switzerland and the United States were analyzed based on GMM estimation. The results indicate significant and persistent cross-country differences in risk aversion in the interest-rate market compared to the implied risk aversion in the stock market. This may offer opportunities for risk arbitrage and, therefore, a risk pricing-related explanation of carry-trade returns.