scholarly journals Prediction of annual runoff using Artificial Neural Network and Regression approaches

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
N. VIVEKANANDAN

Prediction of runoff is often important for optimal design of water storage and drainage works andmanagement of extreme events like floods and droughts. Rainfall-runoff (RR) models are considered to be most effectiveand expedient tool for runoff prediction. Number of models like stochastic, conceptual, deterministic, black-box, etc. iscommonly available for RR modelling. This paper details a study involving the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN)and Regression (REG) approaches for prediction of runoff for Betwa and Chambal regions. Model performanceindicators such as model efficiency, correlation coefficient, root mean square error and root mean absolute error are usedto evaluate the performance of ANN and REG for runoff prediction. Statistical parameters are employed to find theaccuracy in prediction by ANN and REG for the data under study. The paper presents that ANN approach is found to besuitable for prediction of runoff for Betwa and Chambal regions.

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Khanmohammadi ◽  
N. Dallali ◽  
A. Bagheri Garmarudi ◽  
M. Zarnegar ◽  
K. Ghasemi

Partial Least Square (PLS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques were compared during development of an analytical method for quantitative determination of sulfamethoxazole (SMX) and trimethoprim (TMP) in Co-Trimoxazole®suspension. The procedure was based on Attenuated Total Reflectance Fourier Transform Infrared (ATR–FTIR) spectrometry. The 800–2500 cm−1spectral region was selected for quantitative analysis.R2and relative error of prediction (REP) in PLS technique were (0.989, 2.128) and (0.986, 1.381) for SMX and TMP, respectively. These statistical parameters were improved using the ANN models considering the complexity of the sample and the speediness and simplicity of the method.R2and RMSEC in modified method were (0.997, 1.064) and (0.997, 0.634) for SMX and TMP, respectively.


2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 2120-2130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suraj Kumar ◽  
Thendiyath Roshni ◽  
Dar Himayoun

Reliable method of rainfall-runoff modeling is a prerequisite for proper management and mitigation of extreme events such as floods. The objective of this paper is to contrasts the hydrological execution of Emotional Neural Network (ENN) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for modelling rainfall-runoff in the Sone Command, Bihar as this area experiences flood due to heavy rainfall. ENN is a modified version of ANN as it includes neural parameters which enhance the network learning process. Selection of inputs is a crucial task for rainfall-runoff model. This paper utilizes cross correlation analysis for the selection of potential predictors. Three sets of input data: Set 1, Set 2 and Set 3 have been prepared using weather and discharge data of 2 raingauge stations and 1 discharge station located in the command for the period 1986-2014.  Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has then been performed on the selected data sets for selection of data sets showing principal tendencies.  The data sets obtained after PCA have then been used in the model development of ENN and ANN models. Performance indices were performed for the developed model for three data sets. The results obtained from Set 2 showed that ENN with R= 0.933, R2 = 0.870, Nash Sutcliffe = 0.8689, RMSE = 276.1359 and Relative Peak Error = 0.00879 outperforms ANN in simulating the discharge. Therefore, ENN model is suggested as a better model for rainfall-runoff discharge in the Sone command, Bihar.


2022 ◽  
pp. 375-398
Author(s):  
Jillella Gopala Krishna ◽  
Probir Kumar Ojha

The authors have developed an artificial neural network model using odor threshold (OT) property data for diverse odorant components present in black tea (76 components) and coffee (46 components). The models were validated in terms of both internal and external validation criteria signifying acceptable results. The authors found the significant features controlling the OT property using Mean Absolute Error (MAE)-based criteria in a backward elimination of descriptors, one in each turn. The present results well-corroborated the previously published PLS-regression based chemometric model results.


2012 ◽  
Vol 170-173 ◽  
pp. 1013-1016
Author(s):  
Fu Qiang Gao ◽  
Xiao Qiang Wang

Prediction of peak particle velocity (PPV) is very complicated due to the number of influencing parameters affecting seism wave propagation. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) is implemented to develop a model to predict PPV in a blasting operation. Based on the measured parameters of maximum explosive charge used per delay and distance between blast face to monitoring point, a three-layer ANN was found to be optimum with architecture 2-5-1. Through the analysis of coefficient of determination (CoD) and mean absolute error (MAE) between monitored and predicted values of PPV, it indicates that the forecast data by the ANN model is close to the actua1 values.


2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 94-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duc Van Le

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model along with Back Propagation Algorithm (BPA) has been applied in many fields, especially in hydrology and water resources management to simulate or forecast rainfall runoff process, discharge and water level - time series, and other hydrological variables. Several researches have recently been focusing to compare the applicability of ANN model with other theory-driven and data-driven approaches. The comparison of ANN with M5 model trees for rainfall-runoff forecasting, with ARMAX models for deriving flow series, with AR models and regression models for forecasting and estimating daily river flows have been carried out. The better results that were implemented by ANN model have been concluded. So, this research trend is continued for the comparison of ANN model with Tank, Harmonic, Thomas and Fiering models in simulation of the monthly runoffs at Dong Nai river basin, Viet Nam. The results proved ANN being the best choice among these models, if suitable and enough data sources were available.


2020 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-38
Author(s):  
Sandi Baressi Šegota ◽  
Daniel Štifanić ◽  
Kazuhiro Ohkura ◽  
Zlatan Car

An artificial neural network (ANN) approach is proposed to the problem of estimating the propeller torques of a frigate using combined diesel, electric and gas (CODLAG) propulsion system. The authors use a multilayer perceptron (MLP) feed-forward ANN trained with data from a dataset which describes the decay state coefficients as outputs and system parameters as inputs – with a goal of determining the propeller torques, removing the decay state coefficients and using the torque values of the starboard and port propellers as outputs. A total of 53760 ANNs are trained – 26880 for each of the propellers, with a total 8960 parameter combinations. The results are evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and coefficient of determination (R2). Best results for the starboard propeller are MAE of 2.68 [Nm], and MAE of 2.58 [Nm] for the port propeller with following ANN configurations respectively: 2 hidden layers with 32 neurons and identity activation and 3 hidden layers with 16, 32 and 16 neurons and identity activation function. Both configurations achieve R2 value higher than 0.99.


Nativa ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 527
Author(s):  
Aline Bernarda Debastiani ◽  
Sílvio Luís Rafaeli Neto ◽  
Ricardo Dalagnol da Silva

O objetivo deste estudo é investigar o desempenho da árvore modelo (M5P) e sua sensibilidade à poda e comparação com o desempenho de uma Rede Neural Artificial (RNA) para a simulação da vazão média diária mensal. A motivação para esta análise está na maior simplicidade e velocidade de processamento da M5P comparado às RNAs e a carência de estudos aplicando este método na modelagem hidrológica. O estudo foi desenvolvido na bacia hidrográfica do Alto Canoas, tendo um delineamento experimental composto por um período de treinamento, um de validação cruzada e dois períodos de testes. A RNA utilizada foi a Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP), implementada no software MATLAB, e a M5P (com e sem poda), disponível do software WEKA. O algoritmo M5P se mostrou sensível à poda em somente metade dos tratamentos. A M5P apresentou bom ajuste na modelagem, porém a RNA apresentou desempenho superior em todos os tratamentos.Palavras-chave: rede neural artificial; árvore de regressão; Bacia do Alto Canoas. MODEL TREE IN COMPARISON TO ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK FOR RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING ABSTRACT: The aim of this study is to investigate the performance of the model tree (M5P) and its sensitivity to pruning and comparison to the performance of an Artificial Neural network (ANN) for the simulation of daily average discharge of the month. The motivation for this analysis is on simplicity and speed of processing M5P compared the RNAs. The study was developed in the Alto Canoas watershed, having an experiment consisting of a training period, a cross-validation and two testing periods. The ANN used was the Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP), implemented in MATLAB software, and M5P (with and without pruning), available from the WEKA software. M5P algorithm proved sensitive to pruning in half of the treatments. The M5P showed good fit in the modeling, but the RNA presented superior performance in all treatments.Keywords: artificial neural network; regression tree; Basin Alto Canoas.


In water resource management and planning the Rainfall-Runoff models play a crucial role and depends mainly on the data available for planning activities. The rainfall-runoff relationship comes under the nonlinear and complex hydrological Event. In the present study two data driven modeling approaches, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Gene Expression Programming (GEP) has been used for modeling of rainfall-runoff process as these methods does not consider the physical nature of the process, which is complex to understand. GEP and ANN are used to model rainfall-runoff relationship for Dindori catchment in upper Narmada River Basin. Daily hydro-meteorological data of Dindori gauging station and precipitation of the catchment for a period of eighteen years were used as input in the model design. Various combinations of input variables for training and testing of models were selected based on statistical parameters. The performance of model was evaluated in term of the root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination, RMSE to standard deviation ratio (RSR) and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency. The results obtained after applying the two techniques were compared. Which indicates that GEP performed better in all performance evaluation parameters (R2 is 0.92) then ANN (R2 0.90) and is able to give mathematical relationship for rainfallrunoff modeling.


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