scholarly journals Are African Stock Markets Inefficient or Adaptive? Empirical Literature

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adefemi A. Obalade ◽  
Paul-Francois Muzindutsi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Recent Theory ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Best Fit ◽  
Weak Form Efficiency

This chapter reviews empirical studies on weak form of efficiency with the aim of establishing whether the African market is inefficient or adaptive. The reviewed studies are categorised based on their methodological approaches to compare the power of linear and non-linear models in testing for weak-form efficiency. The studies on calendar anomalies, an indication of weak-form inefficiency, are reviewed to assess whether these anomalies are adaptive as portrayed by the relatively recent theory of adaptive market hypothesis (AMH). The scope of reviewed studies is also extended to developed and emerging markets to gain a broad comparison of the findings. This review revealed that non-linear dependence has been revealed in stock returns suggesting that non-linear models are best fit to test for the stock market efficiency. Reviewed studies produced contradictory findings with some supporting and others rejecting weak-form efficiency. Thus, most studies support the AMH, which suggests that market efficiencies and anomalies are time changing. This chapter concludes that most of the existing studies on AMH have been carried out in markets other than Africa, and hence, further empirical studies on the evolving and changing nature of efficiency in African stock markets are recommended.

The complex relationship between inflation and equity returns

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinan Liu ◽  
Apostolos Serletis
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Complex Relationship ◽  
Inflation Uncertainty ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeTo investigate the complex relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses a bivariate VARMA, GARCH-in-mean, asymmetric BEKK model to investigate the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns.FindingsUsing monthly inflation and equity returns data for the G7 and EM7 economies, we find that the effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty on equity returns vary across countries.Research limitations/implicationsThe mixed evidence we find potentially reflects the changing dynamics, policy regimes, economic shocks and country-specific factors (such as differences in the financing patterns of enterprises and the legal and financial environments) across the G7 and EM7 countries.Practical implicationsWe contribute to the empirical literature in the following ways. First, we rely on a wide sample of countries, including both developed and emerging economies. Second, we extend previous research by estimating a GARCH-in-mean model of monthly equity returns in which both realized returns and their conditional volatility are allowed to vary with inflation. Previous articles that studied the relationship between inflation and stock market returns generally sought time-invariant effects of inflation on stock returns.Social implicationsThe paper helps to reconcile the divergent results of previous empirical studies and distinguish between alternative explanations of the relationship between inflation and equity returns.Originality/valueOur study provides an improved comprehension of the ambiguous relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns under various central bank mandates and different levels of central bank independence. The mixed empirical evidence across countries we present provides insights for the macroeconomic models that consider the relationship between uncertainty and macroeconomic performance as a fundamental building block. Therefore, our empirical study calls for further work on the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns.

scholarly journals The Evolving Efficiency Of The South African Stock Exchange

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
South African ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The South ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Nested Models ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Weak Form Efficiency

This paper tests the weak-form efficiency in the South African stock exchange - the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) - under the hypothesis that emerging markets efficiency evolves through time as these markets constantly enhance their regulatory environment. The paper makes use of the time varying GARCH model in testing this hypothesis. In addition, the paper compares the out-of-sample forecast performance of the time varying and fixed parameter GARCH models in predicting stock returns in the JSE making use of MSE-F statistics for nested models proposed (McCracken, 1999). The findings of the paper show that the two models provide the same conclusion in showing that the JSE has been efficient during the period of the analysis. In addition, the time varying model outperforms the fixed coefficient model in predicting the JSE stock returns. This finding indicates that the time-varying parameter model adds a benefit in testing the weak-form efficiency or modelling stock return in the JSE.

scholarly journals Weak form market efficiency test of Bangladesh Stock Exchange: an empirical evidence from Dhaka Stock Exchange and Chittagong Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 285
Author(s):  
Shafir Zaman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficiency Test ◽  
Non Parametric ◽  
Weak Form Efficiency

Investors need to have an idea about stock market before making investment whether the stock markets are efficient or not to take investment decision in stock market. For that reason, measurement of market efficiency of stock market bears significance to investors. Bearing it in mind, the study is undertaken to find out the existence of weak form efficiency prevails in largest stock market of Bangladesh. In order to get perfect result Parametric and Non Parametric tests were conducted of DSE & CSE for 2013 to 2017. It was found from all tests that Dhaka and Chittagong Stock exchange are not weak form efficient. Therefore, the result of the study will act as a helping hand to researchers to find out the reason of Bangladesh stock market not being weak form efficient as well as providing measurement to make the stock market weak form efficient.

scholarly journals Seasonality in the Indian Stock Markets: A Study of Calendar Effects

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Harish Kumar ◽  
Mridul Dawar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Calendar Effects ◽  
Year Effect

Theoretical and technological advances in Behavioural Finance over the last decades seem to have shifted the paradigm away from the Efficient Market Hypothesis proposed by Fama in 1970s. The hypothesis implied that securities are always priced efficiently since all the relevant information is fully reflected in their prices. However, this normative statement comes under heavy scrutiny with the existence of seasonality in stock returns. This paper investigates seasonality in the Indian stock markets through the existence of calendar effects. Employing time series analysis on data from January 1999 to December 2015, the presence of calendar effects is studied in three BSE indices-Sensex, BSE200 and BSE 500 using a dummy variable regression model in both the daily returns (using EGARCH modelling process) and monthly returns (using OLS estimation procedure). It is found that the while the SENSEX index does not show any significant calendar effect, seasonality does manifest in the larger BSE 200 and BSE 500 indices in form of both days-of-the-week effect and month-of-the-year effect, thereby suggesting that Indian stock markets do not show informational efficiency even in the weak form. The study concludes that the observed patterns are useful in timing the deals by exploiting the observed irregularities in the Indian stock market returns.

Identifikasi Hubungan Linier dan Non-Linier antara Rasio-Rasio Keuangan dan Return Saham

Akuntabilitas ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-92
Author(s):  
I Made Pande Dwiana Putra ◽  
I Dewa Nyoman Badera
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Multivariate Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Financial Ratios ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Profitability Ratios

Researches on relevance of financial ratios on stock returns mostly adopt linearity assumptions. This research aims to show the relevance of financial ratios on stock return and to compare the accuracy of linear and  non linear models. Linear and non  linear multivariate regression models are constructed from several financial ratios towards stock return to identify ratios with significant influences and subsequently compared in regard of their determinations. The samples consist of manufacturing companies listed on IDX  from 2009 through 2016 totaling 97 companies. Results of bivariate regressions show consistent relationships exist in form of positive-quadratic relationships for profitability ratios (ROA and ROE) and negative-logarithmic relationships for liquidity and solvability ratios (CR, QR and DER). In general, profitability ratios remain the dominant ratios affecting stock returns

Design Equations for Bod Removal in Facultative Ponds

1987 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 187-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Joe Middlebrooks
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Protection Agency ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Plug Flow ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
The Us ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Removal Model ◽  
Best Fit

Facultative pond performance data collected for the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) at four locations throughout the USA and data collected by others were used to evaluate the most frequently used design equations and to develop non-linear design equations. Empirical models were evaluated as well as the classical plug flow and complete mix models. The first order plug flow model gave the best fit of all the rational models. The empirical non-linear models did not fit the data, nor did the other empirical models with the exception being the areal loading and removal model. Attempts to verify the models developed with the USEPA data using data collected by others were not successful with the exception of the areal loading and removal model.

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