Financial viability for milk production of Dutch and Jersey breeds: An analysis through Monte Carlo simulation and Sensitivity Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 130
Author(s):  
Evelin Gonçalves Suchla ◽  
Anderson Catapan ◽  
Edilson Antonio Catapan ◽  
Rafael Klüppel Smijtink
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Milk Production ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Financial Viability ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Variable Parameters

Due to the favorable characteristics such as climate and topography, the Agribusiness represents much of the generation of wealth in Brazil. Considering this importance, the objective of this research was to identify how many cows of the Dutch and Jersey breeds are required for a small milk producer get profit with its production of Brazilian. For this, the cash flows and the NPV were calculated. The NPV was calculated under deterministic and probabilistic aspects, performing a Monte Carlo simulation and afterwards a Sensitivity Analysis, illustrating the variable parameters that more influence in the outcome of the NPV. It was noticed that the selling price of a liter of milk and the amount of liters of milk produced per cow are the parameters which most affect the NPV. The results showed that there is a need for at least 33 cows of Dutch breed or 43 cows of Jersey breed for the project to generate wealth to the producer

scholarly journals Analisis Risiko Finansial Dengan Metode Simulasi Monte Carlo (Studi Kasus: Pt. Phase Delta Control)

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 62
Author(s):  
Atikah Aghdhi Pratiwi ◽  
Rosa Rilantiana
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Uncertain Variable ◽  
Random Numbers ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Sales Volume ◽  
Simulation Research ◽  
Cost Of Production ◽  
A Company

AbstractBasically, the purpose of a company is make a profit and enrich the owners of the company. This is manifested by development and achievement of good performance, both in financial and operational perspective. But in reality, not all of companies can achieve good performance. One of them is because exposure of risk. This could threaten achievement of the objectives and existence of the company. Therefore, companies need to have an idea related to possible condition and financial projection in future periods that are affected by risk. One of the possible method is Monte Carlo Simulation. Research will be conducted at PT. Phase Delta Control with historical data related to production/sales volume, cost of production and selling price. Historical data will be used as Monte Carlo Simulation with random numbers that describe probability of each risk variables describing reality. The main result is estimated profitability of PT. Phase Delta Control in given period. Profit estimation will be uncertain variable due to some uncertainty

Risk Management of Construction Schedule by PERT with Monte Carlo Simulation

2014 ◽  
Vol 548-549 ◽  
pp. 1646-1650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Yan Li
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Control Points ◽  
Schedule Management ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Critical Paths ◽  
Construction Schedule

It has been proved that the construction schedule management was an uncertain problem. Traditional CPM method was a good way to define the total duration and critical paths but can not solve uncertainty. The paper use CPM to define the duration and critical path firstly, then defined the parameters with Delphi and make Monte Carlo simulation. Through simulation results, it is found that the probability to finish the work on time was only 35.3%. The following step is to make sensitivity analysis, through the calculation, the work which has large influence was found and treat as key control points. It is proved that Monte Carlo simulation is useful to solve the problem of construction schedule management.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document