Peer Review #1 of "Extinction risk of narrowly distributed species of seed plants in Brazil due to habitat loss and climate change (v0.1)"

In a world where changes in land cover and climate happen faster than ever due to the expansion of human activities, narrowly distributed species are predicted to be the first to go extinct. Studies projecting species extinction in tropical regions consider either habitat loss or climate change as drivers of biodiversity loss but rarely evaluate them together. Here, the contribution of these two factors to the extinction risk of narrowly distributed species (with ranges smaller than 10,000 km2) of seed plants endemic to a fifth-order watershed in Brazil (microendemics) is assessed. We estimated the Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) of these watersheds (areas with microendemics) and projected three scenarios of land use up to the year 2100 based on the average annual rates of habitat loss in these watersheds from 2000 to 2014. These scenarios correspond to immediate conservation action (scenario 1), long-term conservation action (scenario 2), and no conservation action (scenario 3). In each scenario, areas with microendemics were classified into four classes: (1) areas with low risk, (2) areas threatened by habitat loss, (3) areas threatened by climate change, and (4) areas threatened by climate change and habitat loss. We found 2,354 microendemic species of seed plants in 776 areas that altogether cover 17.5% of Brazil. Almost 70% (1,597) of these species are projected to be under high extinction risk by the end of the century due to habitat loss, climate change, or both, assuming that these areas will not lose habitat in the future due to land use. However, if habitat loss in these areas continues at the prevailing annual rates, the number of threatened species is projected to increase to more than 85% (2,054). The importance of climate change and habitat loss as drivers of species extinction varies across phytogeographic domains, and this variation requires the adoption of retrospective and prospective conservation strategies that are context specific. We suggest that tropical countries, such as Brazil, should integrate biodiversity conservation and climate change policies (both mitigation and adaptation) to achieve win-win social and environmental gains while halting species extinction.

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Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Diversity and Distributions ◽

10.1111/ddi.12064 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 19 (5-6) ◽

pp. 518-529 ◽

Cited By ~ 36

Author(s):

Rocio Ponce-Reyes ◽

Emily Nicholson ◽

Peter W. J. Baxter ◽

Richard A. Fuller ◽

Hugh Possingham

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Habitat Loss ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

Cloud Forest ◽

Forest Fragments

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Faculty Opinions recommendation of Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change.

Faculty Opinions – Post-Publication Peer Review of the Biomedical Literature ◽

10.3410/f.1004751.370797 ◽

2006 ◽

Author(s):

Kai Chan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Extinction Risk

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The Biology of Mediterranean-Type Ecosystems

10.1093/oso/9780198739135.001.0001 ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Karen J. Esler ◽

Anna L. Jacobsen ◽

R. Brandon Pratt

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South Africa ◽

Invasive Species ◽

Habitat Loss ◽

Endemic Species ◽

Geographic Area ◽

Cutting Edge ◽

Wide Range ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Mediterranean Type Ecosystems

The world’s mediterranean-type climate regions (including areas within the Mediterranean, South Africa, Australia, California, and Chile) have long been of interest to biologists by virtue of their extraordinary biodiversity and the appearance of evolutionary convergence between these disparate regions. Comparisons between mediterranean-type climate regions have provided important insights into questions at the cutting edge of ecological, ecophysiological and evolutionary research. These regions, dominated by evergreen shrubland communities, contain many rare and endemic species. Their mild climate makes them appealing places to live and visit and this has resulted in numerous threats to the species and communities that occupy them. Threats include a wide range of factors such as habitat loss due to development and agriculture, disturbance, invasive species, and climate change. As a result, they continue to attract far more attention than their limited geographic area might suggest. This book provides a concise but comprehensive introduction to mediterranean-type ecosystems. As with other books in the Biology of Habitats Series, the emphasis in this book is on the organisms that dominate these regions although their management, conservation, and restoration are also considered.

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Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Biology ◽

10.3390/biology10010063 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 63

Author(s):

Mohammed A. Dakhil ◽

Marwa Waseem A. Halmy ◽

Walaa A. Hassan ◽

Ali El-Keblawy ◽

Kaiwen Pan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

In Situ Conservation ◽

Integrative Approach ◽

Conservation Assessment ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Area Of Occupancy ◽

Annual Range ◽

The Impact

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperuspingii var. pingii, J.tibetica, and J.komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.

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Implications of climate change for the distribution of the water opossum (Chironectes minimus): habitat loss and conservation opportunities

Mammalian Biology ◽

10.1007/s42991-021-00105-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Roniel Freitas-Oliveira ◽

Wellington Hannibal ◽

Matheus S. Lima-Ribeiro ◽

Levi Carina Terribile

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Habitat Loss

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Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

Communications Biology ◽

10.1038/s42003-021-01665-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Julián A. Velasco ◽

Francisco Estrada ◽

Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽

Didier Swingedouw ◽

Carolina Ureta ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Thermohaline Circulation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Amphibian Species ◽

Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

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