scholarly journals Identifying Expressway Accident Black Spots Based on the Secondary Division of Road Units

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 731-743
Author(s):  
Guohua Liang ◽  
Xujiao Sun ◽  
Yidan Zhang ◽  
Mingli Chen ◽  
Wanting Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Bayes Method ◽  
Accident Prediction ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Black Spots ◽  
Empirical Bayes Method ◽  
Safety Estimation

For the purpose of reducing the harm of expressway traffic accidents and improving the accuracy of traffic accident black spots identification, this paper proposes a method for black spots identification of expressway accidents based on road unit secondary division and empirical Bayes method. Based on the modelling ideas of expressway accident prediction models in HSM (Highway Safety Manual), an expressway accident prediction model is established as a prior distribution and combined with empirical Bayes method safety estimation to obtain a Bayes posterior estimate. The posterior estimated value is substituted into the quality control method to obtain the black spots identification threshold. Finally, combining the Xi'an-Baoji expressway related data and using the method proposed in this paper, a case study of Xibao Expressway is carried out, and sections 9, 19, and 25 of Xibao Expressway are identified as black spots. The results show that the method of secondary segmentation based on dynamic clustering can objectively describe the concentration and dispersion of accident spots on the expressway, and the proposed black point recognition method based on empirical Bayes method can accurately identify accident black spots. The research results of this paper can provide a basis for decision-making of expressway management departments, take targeted safety improvement measures.

Estimating Safety by the Empirical Bayes Method: A Tutorial

2002 ◽  
Vol 1784 (1) ◽  
pp. 126-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ezra Hauer ◽  
Douglas W. Harwood ◽  
Forrest M. Council ◽  
Michael S. Griffith
Keyword(s):  
Professional Practice ◽  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Highway Safety ◽  
Design Model ◽  
Bayes Method ◽  
Safety Improvement ◽  
Safety Design ◽  
Empirical Bayes Method ◽  
History Of ◽  
Safety Estimation

The empirical Bayes (EB) method addresses two problems of safety estimation: it increases the precision of estimates beyond what is possible when one is limited to the use of a 2- to 3-year accident history, and it corrects for the regression-to-mean bias. The increase in precision is important when the usual estimate is too imprecise to be useful. The elimination of the regression-to-mean bias is important whenever the accident history of the entity is in some way connected with the reason why its safety is estimated. The theory of the EB method is well developed. It is now used in the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model and will be used in the Comprehensive Highway Safety Improvement Model. The time has come for the EB method to be the standard and staple of professional practice. The study’s goal is to facilitate the transition from theory into practice.

scholarly journals Integration of Probability and Clustering Based Approaches in the Field of Black Spot Identification

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maen Ghadi ◽  
Árpád Török ◽  
Katalin Tánczos
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Black Spot ◽  
Segment Length ◽  
Bayes Method ◽  
The Road ◽  
Traffic Conditions ◽  
Black Spots ◽  
Empirical Bayes Method ◽  
Infrastructure Network ◽  
Clustering Approach

The objective of the paper is to define a complex methodology to analyze black spot locations of road infrastructure network combining the benefit of both; Empirical Bayes method and K-mean clustering approach. In the first step, K-mean algorithm is used to define homogeneous accident clusters. The homogeneity is described in three terms: traffic conditions, geometric design of the road and accident characteristics. Then, Empirical Bayes method is applied to define black spots based on the determined clusters. Due to the combination of the introduced methods, a powerful technique is provided that is able to identify high-risk locations and cluster dependent segment length as the output of the model.

Development of a Procedure for Estimating Expected Safety Effects of a Contemplated Traffic Signal Installation

2003 ◽  
Vol 1840 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhagwant Persaud ◽  
Hugh McGee ◽  
Craig Lyon ◽  
Dominique Lord
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Traffic Control ◽  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Traffic Signal ◽  
Accident Prediction ◽  
Engineering Study ◽  
Control Devices ◽  
Safety Estimation

The Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices contains warrants for traffic signal installation but cautions that satisfying a warrant does not in itself justify the decision to install a signal and that one should not be installed unless an engineering study indicates that this will improve the overall safety or operation of the intersection. The development of an easily implementable procedure, which is intended to be part of an engineering study, for estimation of the expected safety effects of a contemplated signal installation is reported. These effects can then be considered in conjunction with other impacts in a conventional economic evaluation. The development of the procedure by use of a multijurisdiction database is described, and a detailed illustration is presented. Use is made of the empirical Bayes methodology that of late has been recognized as the state of the art in safety estimation and of the most recent advances in that methodology. Substantial focus is placed on the application of that methodology and on the development of the accident prediction models required to support that application. The development of the procedure is part of an NCHRP project (NCHRP 17-16) that aims to improve the safety warrant for signal installation and, more generally, to determine how safety is considered in the decision to install or not install a signal.

scholarly journals Safety Effects of Freeway Hard Shoulder Running

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (17) ◽  
pp. 3614
Author(s):  
Jaisung Choi ◽  
Richard Tay ◽  
Sangyoup Kim ◽  
Seungwon Jeong ◽  
Jeongmin Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Crash Severity ◽  
Bayes Method ◽  
Road Capacity ◽  
Empirical Bayes Method ◽  
Safety Effect

Hard shoulder running (HSR) has been increasingly used as a sustainable and viable way to increase road capacity. This study investigated the safety effect of HSR on freeways in South Korea using the empirical Bayes method. This study found an increase in the total number of crashes. In terms of crash severity, a higher proportion of crashes (25.3%) on 2(3)-lane sections were found to be serious (involving injuries and/or fatalities) compared to those on 4(5)-lane sections (3.6%). Also, a positive relationship was found between the length of the hard shoulder running and changes in crash frequencies. Thus, hard shoulder running on lengthy 2(3)-lane freeways should be avoided.

AN EMPIRICAL BAYES METHOD FOR STUDYING VARIATION IN KNEE REPLACEMENT RATES

1996 ◽  
Vol 15 (17) ◽  
pp. 1875-1884 ◽  
Author(s):  
XIAO-HUA ZHOU ◽  
B. P. KATZ ◽  
E. HOLLEMAN ◽  
C. A. MELFI ◽  
R. DITTUS
Keyword(s):  
Knee Replacement ◽  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Bayes Method ◽  
Empirical Bayes Method
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