Analysis of safety impact of paved shoulder width on Czech secondary roads

Traffic safety is influenced, among other factors, by characteristics of the roads, which include the width of the shoulder. Shoulder width was noted to have a large effect on crash frequency, as well as on traffic speed. In this paper, we focused on paved shoulders. Previous studies confirmed that increasing the width of the paved shoulder is associated with a decrease in crash frequency. However, wider shoulders may encourage higher driving speed, which is related to an increase of impact speed and crash severity – this issue was hypothesized, but not statistically investigated. Thus, conclusions based on crashes and speeds contradict each other, and there is no simple answer to the question of the safety impact of wide shoulders. To address this gap, we analyzed a sample of two most typical categories of Czech secondary roads, which differ only in the paved shoulder width (S9.5 roads with 0.75m-wide shoulder, and S11.5 roads with 1.75m-wide shoulder) and thus present a suitable example for studying the safety impact of paved shoulder width. We used generalized linear models of crash frequency, and multinomial logistic models of crash severity (separately for single-vehicle and multi-vehicle crashes), as well as a statistical test of differences in speed for the two road categories. The results showed that: Firstly, there were fewer crashes on S11.5 roads compared to S9.5 roads; this was true for both single-vehicle and multi-vehicle crashes. Secondly, single-vehicle crashes on S11.5 roads were more severe compared to S9.5 roads; the change of severity in multi-vehicle crashes was not statistically significant. Thirdly, driving speeds on S11.5 roads were approx. by 7 km/h higher compared to S9.5 roads. These findings support the hypothesis of an association between wider shoulders, higher speeds, and increased crash severity, especially in the case of single-vehicle crashes. As a practical solution, various speed management measures, including widening to a 2+1 road, may be recommended.

A Bibliometric Analysis and Benchmark of Machine Learning and AutoML in Crash Severity Prediction: The Case Study of Three Colombian Cities

Traffic accidents are of worldwide concern, as they are one of the leading causes of death globally. One policy designed to cope with them is the design and deployment of road safety systems. These aim to predict crashes based on historical records, provided by new Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, to enhance traffic flow management and promote safer roads. Increasing data availability has helped machine learning (ML) to address the prediction of crashes and their severity. The literature reports numerous contributions regarding survey papers, experimental comparisons of various techniques, and the design of new methods at the point where crash severity prediction (CSP) and ML converge. Despite such progress, and as far as we know, there are no comprehensive research articles that theoretically and practically approach the model selection problem (MSP) in CSP. Thus, this paper introduces a bibliometric analysis and experimental benchmark of ML and automated machine learning (AutoML) as a suitable approach to automatically address the MSP in CSP. Firstly, 2318 bibliographic references were consulted to identify relevant authors, trending topics, keywords evolution, and the most common ML methods used in related-case studies, which revealed an opportunity for the use AutoML in the transportation field. Then, we compared AutoML (AutoGluon, Auto-sklearn, TPOT) and ML (CatBoost, Decision Tree, Extra Trees, Gradient Boosting, Gaussian Naive Bayes, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Random Forest) methods in three case studies using open data portals belonging to the cities of Medellín, Bogotá, and Bucaramanga in Colombia. Our experimentation reveals that AutoGluon and CatBoost are competitive and robust ML approaches to deal with various CSP problems. In addition, we concluded that general-purpose AutoML effectively supports the MSP in CSP without developing domain-focused AutoML methods for this supervised learning problem. Finally, based on the results obtained, we introduce challenges and research opportunities that the community should explore to enhance the contributions that ML and AutoML can bring to CSP and other transportation areas.

Exploring Implicit Relationships between Pavement Surface Friction and Vehicle Crash Severity Using Interpretable Extreme Gradient Boosting Method

Pavement friction has been identified as crucial in traffic safety. Since the Highway Safety Manual prediction algorithm is often based on crash frequency, the crash severity distribution might be assumed unchanged before and after the countermeasure. However, pavement surface treatments can improve the friction to different levels, by which crash severity outcomes may vary greatly. To explore the implicit effects of pavement friction on vehicle crash severity, this paper first validates the extreme gradient boosting model performance and then the Shapley additive explanations interaction values are employed to interpret individual features and the nonlinear interactions among predictors. Under various scenarios, the XGBoost output probability is utilized to convert into dynamic crash severity distributions. Results also indicate that friction becomes more significant when the friction number is less than 38, and immediate corrective actions are needed when the friction number is below 20.

Investigating the severity of expressway crash based on the random parameter logit model accounting for unobserved heterogeneity

The present study utilized a random parameter logit (RPL) model to explore the nonlinear relationship between explanatory variables and the likelihood of expressway crash severity. The potential unobserved heterogeneity of data brought by China’s road traffic characteristics was fully considered. A total of 1154 crashes happened on Hang-Jin-Qu Expressway from 2013 to 2018 were analyzed. In addition to the conventional impact factors considered in the past, variables related to road geometry were also introduced, which contributed to expressway accidents significantly. The overall stability of the model estimation was examined by likelihood ratio test. Then, the average elastic coefficient of the significant factors at each severity level was also calculated. Several factors that significantly increase the fatal crash probability were highlighted: rainy/snowy/cloudy weather condition, low visibility (100– m), night without light, wet-skid road surface, being female, aged 41+ years, collision with a rigid barrier and some other obstacles, radius and length of horizontal curve, and longitudinal gradient. The parameters of four factors were random and obeyed normal distribution: night without light, being female, driving experience with 10 + years and with large vehicle responsible. These findings provide insights for better understanding of expressway crash severity. Some countermeasures were proposed about driver education, traffic law enforcement, vehicle and road design, environmental improvement, and so on.