A Randomized Trial of Ways To Describe Test Accuracy: The Effect on Physicians' Post-Test Probability Estimates

2005 ◽  
Vol 143 (3) ◽  
pp. 184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milo A. Puhan ◽  
Johann Steurer ◽  
Lucas M. Bachmann ◽  
Gerben ter Riet
2010 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 373-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Agoritsas ◽  
Delphine S. Courvoisier ◽  
Christophe Combescure ◽  
Marie Deom ◽  
Thomas V. Perneger

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. e71-e77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sen Phang ◽  
Pietro Ravani ◽  
Jeffrey Schaefer ◽  
Bruce Wright ◽  
Kevin Mclaughlin

Background: Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition.Method: We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition.Results:  When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025).Conclusions: Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing.


Diagnostics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Giannella ◽  
Giovanni Delli Carpini ◽  
Francesco Sopracordevole ◽  
Maria Papiccio ◽  
Matteo Serri ◽  
...  

Background: Up to 40% of women with atypical endometrial hyperplasia (AEH) can reveal endometrial cancer (EC) at hysterectomy. The pre-operative endometrial sampling method (ESM) and some independent cancer predictors may affect this outcome. The present study aimed to compare the rate of EC at hysterectomy in women with AEH undergoing dilation and curettage (D&C), hysteroscopically-guided biopsy (HSC-bio), or hysteroscopic endometrial resection (HSC-res). The secondary outcome was to compare the reliability of ESMs in women showing independent variables associated with EC. Methods: Two-hundred-and-eight consecutive women with AEH and undergoing hysterectomy between January 2000 and December 2017 were analyzed retrospectively. Based on pre- and post-test probability analysis for EC, three ESMs were compared: D&C, HSC-bio, and HSC-res. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to assess risk factors predicting cancer on final histology. Finally, the patient’s characteristics were compared between the three ESM groups. Results: D&C and HSC-bio included 75 women in each group, while HSC-res included 58 women. Forty-nine women (23.6%) revealed cancer at hysterectomy (pre-test probability). Post-test probability analysis showed that HSC-res had the lowest percentage of EC underestimation: HSC-res = 11.6%; HSC-bio = 19.5%; D&C = 35.3%. Patient characteristics showed no significant differences between the three ESMs. Multivariate analysis showed that body mass index ≥40 (Odds Ratio (OR) = 19.75; Confidence Intervals (CI) 2.193–177.829), and age (criterion > 60 years) (OR = 1.055, CI 1.002–1.111) associated significantly with EC. In women with one or both risk factors, post-test probability analysis showed that HSC-res was the only method with a lower EC rate at hysterectomy compared to a pre-test probability of 44.2%: HSC-res = 19.96%; HSC-bio = 53.81%; D&C = 63.12%. Conclusions: HSC-res provided the lowest rate of EC underestimation in AEH, also in women showing EC predictors. These data may be considered for better diagnostic and therapeutic planning of AEH.


2014 ◽  
Vol 125 (1) ◽  
pp. 263-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer J. Shin ◽  
Diana Caragacianu ◽  
Gregory W. Randolph

Ultrasound ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 153-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jackie A. Ross ◽  
Alina Unipan ◽  
Jackie Clarke ◽  
Catherine Magee ◽  
Jemma Johns

Introduction The primary aims of this study were to establish what proportion of ultrasonically suspected molar pregnancies were proven on histological examination and what proportion of histologically diagnosed molar pregnancies were identified by ultrasound pre-operatively. The secondary aim was to review the features of these scans to help identify criteria that may improve ultrasound diagnosis. Methods This was a retrospective observational study conducted in the Early Pregnancy Unit at King’s College Hospital London over an 11-year period. Cases of ultrasonically suspected molar pregnancy or other gestational trophoblastic disease were identified and compared with the final histopathological diagnosis. In addition, cases which were diagnosed on histopathology that were not suspected on ultrasound were also examined. In discrepant cases, the images were reviewed unblinded by two senior sonographers. Statistical analysis for likelihood ratio and post-test probabilities was performed. Results One hundred eighty-two women had gestational trophoblastic disease suspected on ultrasound examination (1:360, 0.3%); 106/182 (58.2%, 95% CI 51.0 to 65.2%) had histologically confirmed gestational trophoblastic disease. The likelihood ratio for gestational trophoblastic disease after a positive ultrasound was 607.27, with a post-test probability of 0.628.The sensitivity of ultrasound for gestational trophoblastic disease was 70.7% (95% CI 62.9% to 77.4%) with an estimated specificity of 99.88% (95% CI 99.85% to 99.91%); 102/143 (71.3%, 95% CI 63.4 to 78.1%) molar pregnancies were suspected on pre-op ultrasound; 60/68 (88.2%, 95% CI 78.2 to 94.2%) of complete moles were suspected on pre-op ultrasound, compared with 42/75 (56.0%, 95% CI 44.7 to 66.7%) of partial moles. On retrospective review of the pre-op ultrasound images, there were cases that could have been suspected prior to surgery. Conclusion Detecting molar pregnancy by ultrasound remains a diagnostic challenge, particularly for partial moles. These data suggest that there has been an increase in both the predictive value and the sensitivity of ultrasound over time, with a high LR and post-test probability; however, the diagnostic criteria remain ill-defined and could be improved.


Blood ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 118 (21) ◽  
pp. 4729-4729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aikaterini Dilmoula ◽  
Zaina Kassengera ◽  
Hulyan Turkan ◽  
Dyanne Dalcomune ◽  
Dmitry Sukhachev ◽  
...  

Abstract Abstract 4729 Sepsis and its sequelae remain leading causes of death in critically ill patients. Early identification and subsequently prompt treatment of sepsis can have a major impact on the outcome of septic patients. White Blood Cell (WBC) count, neutrophils count or percentage and percentage of band and immature neutrophils have been included in the diagnostic criteria of sepsis d. Previous studies have shown that morphological changes of leukocytes during sepsis can be quantified using Volume, Conductivity and Scatter (VCS) technology by some hematology analyzers. DxH800 (Beckman Coulter, Fullerton, CA) has the potential to report, in addition to Volume and Conductivity, five extra-laser diffraction angles for each cellular event. The aim of the study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of VCS parameters of leukocytes in detecting sepsis in critically ill adult patients. This prospective observational study involved all consecutive adult patients admitted to a 31-bed medico-surgical department of intensive care (ICU) for more than 4 hours in a 3.5-month period. Diagnosis of sepsis was based on standard definitions. Blood samples were run by DxH800. Complete blood count (CBC) and WBC differential, but not VCS parameters were reported to attending physicians. Of a total of 722 patients admitted during the observation period 422 had WBC differential (and thus VCS parameters) determined at admission, of whom 125 had sepsis Septic and non-septic patients had a median age (upper and lower quartile) of 60 (51-71) and 58 (45-72) years and APACHE II scores of 19 (14-25) and 11 (7-16). VCS parameters had higher Areas Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) than WBC or percentage of neutrophils for diagnosis of sepsis at admission (Table 1.).Table 1.DxH800 VCS parameters. Results as median values (upper and lower quartile)VCS parametersSepsis N=125No Sepsis N=317p valueAUC95%CI of AUCMean Volume of Neutrophils (MNVNE)153 (146–163)144 (140–148)<0.0010.780.72–0.83SD of Volume of Neutrophils (SDVNE)20 (18–23)17 (16–18)<0.0010.810.77–0.86Mean Axial Light loss of Neutrophils (MNAL2NE)155 (150–160)148 (144–151)<0.0010.780.73–0.84SD of Axial Light loss of Neutrophils (SDAL2NE)13 (12–16)11 (10–12)<0.0010.800.75–0.84Mean Volume of Monocytes (MNVMO)179 (169–189)163 (159–167)<0.0010.880.84–0.91SD of Volume of Monocytes (SDVMO)24 (21–28)18 (16–20)<0.0010.880.84–0.91SD of Axial Light loss of Monocytes (SDAL2MO)16 (15–20)13 (12–14)<0.0010.850.81–0.89WBC, 103/ml10.9 (7.3–15.3)10.5 (7.8–14.2)NS0.510.44–0.57Percent of Neutrophils, %85 (76–91)80 (68–88)<0.0010.610.55–0.67 On ICU admission, MNVMO had the highest discriminant values in detecting sepsis with sensitivity (Se) of 84%, specificity (Sp) 76%, positive predictive value (PPV)58%, negative predictive value (NPV) 92% and odds ratio (OR) 17 for a cutoff of 168. MNVMO<168 (59% of patients) gave reasonable evidence against sepsis (likelihood ratio (LR) of 0.21, pre- and post-test probability, 0.28 and 0.076,) and MNVMO≥175 (25% of patients) gave reasonable evidence for sepsis (LR of 6.85, pre- and post-test probability, 0.28 and 0.73, respectively). Only 16% of patients, in the intermediate range, had a rather uninformative test result (LR of 1.32). Combining monocyte or neutrophil VCS parameters with CRP slightly increases AUC to 0.91. During the ICU stay, VCS parameters were obtained in 316 initially non-septic patients, of whom 20 became septic. MNVMO < 174 excluded ICU-acquired infection with NPV of 99% and MNVMO > 174 predicted ICU-acquired infection 1.7 days earlier than clinical diagnosis (Se: 85%, Sp 68%, OR 12 and AUC=0.78, 95% CI: 66–90). CONCLUSIONS: This large prospective study in unselected critically ill adult patients demonstrates the diagnostic utility of VCS parameters, especially MNVMO, in detecting and, more importantly, excluding sepsis at admission and during ICU stay. VCS parameters are obtained automatically, routinely, within minutes, requiring neither additional sampling nor additional cost to that of complete blood count thus making their prospects very promising. Disclosures: Pradier: Beckman Coulter: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees.


Author(s):  
H.C. Woerden ◽  
A. Howard ◽  
M. Lyons ◽  
D. Westmoreland ◽  
M. Thomas

2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 424-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renata Báez-Saldaña ◽  
Uriel Rumbo-Nava ◽  
Araceli Escobar-Rojas ◽  
Patricia Castillo-González ◽  
Santiago León-Dueñas ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT Objective: Previous studies have demonstrated that closed pleural biopsy (CPB) has a sensitivity of less than 60% for diagnosing malignancy. Therefore, controversy has recently emerged regarding the value of CPB as a diagnostic test. Our objective was to assess the accuracy of CPB in diagnosing malignancy in patients with pleural effusion. Methods: This was a prospective 8-year study of individuals who underwent CPB to establish the etiology of pleural effusion. Information on each patient was obtained from anatomopathological reports and medical records. When CPB findings showed malignancy or tuberculosis, the biopsy was considered diagnostic, and that was the definitive diagnosis. In cases in which biopsy histopathological findings were nonspecific, a definitive diagnosis was established on the basis of other diagnostic procedures, such as thoracoscopy, thoracotomy, fiberoptic bronchoscopy, biochemical and cellular measurements in pleural fluid, and/or microbiological tests. The accuracy of CPB was determined with 2 × 2 contingency tables. Results: A total of 1034 biopsies from patients with pleural effusion were studied. Of those, 171 (16.54%) were excluded from the accuracy analysis either because of inadequate samples or insufficient information. The results of the accuracy analysis were as follows: sensitivity, 77%; specificity, 98%; positive predictive value, 99%; negative predictive value, 66%; positive likelihood ratio, 38.5; negative likelihood ratio, 0.23; pre-test probability, 2.13; and post-test probability, 82. Conclusions: CPB is useful in clinical practice as a diagnostic test, because there is an important change from pre-test to post-test probability.


2016 ◽  
Vol 36 (10) ◽  
pp. 1804-1812 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Buratti ◽  
Giovanna Viticchi ◽  
Lorenzo Falsetti ◽  
Clotilde Balucani ◽  
Claudia Altamura ◽  
...  

Subjects with asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS) may be at risk of cognitive impairment due to cerebral hypoperfusion. In this study, we aimed to detect a threshold of cerebral hemodynamics which is able to identify subjects at risk of cognitive deterioration. In subjects with ACS, cerebral vasomotor reactivity (CVR) was assessed with the breath-holding index (BHI) transcranial Doppler-based method. Cognitive deterioration was defined as a decrease in the MMSE score by ≥2 points after one year. In order to define the threshold of impaired BHI, a ROC curve analysis was performed adopting the binary difference of MMSE score as the outcome and continuous BHI as the testing variable. A total of 548 subjects completed the follow-up. Cognitive deterioration was observed in 119 patients (21.7%). The BHI value ipsilateral to the stenosis was the strongest predictor of cognitive deterioration among the variables tested. The best cut-point to discriminate between normal and abnormal BHI resulted ≤0.89. The post-test probability of cognitive deterioration for an abnormal BHI was 44%, while a normal BHI showed a post-test probability of 9% for the same outcome. The present investigation provides a threshold of reduced CVR that can be useful to identify subjects with ACS at risk of cognitive deterioration.


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