scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of Financial Sector Development and Savings Mobilization in Nigeria: ECM Analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Ikubor Ofili Jude
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
The Other ◽  
Domestic Saving ◽  
Financial Sector Development ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Short Run

This study employs Error Correction Model (ECM) and Co-integration analysis to study the relationship between financial sector development and savings mobilization in Nigeria 1986 to 2017. As expected from a developing country like Nigeria, a short-run positive relationship is observed between the Nigerian stock market and crude oil prices and the direction is from crude oil prices to the Nigerian stock market but not the other way round. The short run, interest rate earning has a positive and significant impact on domestic savings while the other variables have no significant impact domestic savings in Nigeria. Government should therefore consolidate on past financial sector reforms to improve domestic saving mobilization to reduce the dependence of Nigeria on foreign savings to finance domestic investment.

Analyzing the Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Vietnam Stock Market

2018 ◽  
pp. 229-245
Author(s):  
Huynh Viet Khai ◽  
Le Minh Sang ◽  
Phan Thi Anh Nguyet
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This chapter covers a study that was conducted to find out the impact of crude oil prices on the Vietnam stock market in the period from March 2006 to June 2015 by using the autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) model with dummy variables of the economic crisis. The results revealed that the crude oil prices had positive impacts on VN-Index and HNX-Index in short-run, but negatively in long-run. In addition, the study also found that the economic crisis has affected the relationship between the crude oil prices and the stock market index in the short-run. During the crisis period, the crude oil prices related to the VN-Index and HNX-index more closely than the other stages. However, in the long-run the relationship between oil prices and stock market index was not affected by the economic crisis.

Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: A VECM Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 26-50
Author(s):  
Ngoc Tran Thi Bich ◽  
Huong Pham Hoang Cam
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.

scholarly journals The Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil Prices and Stock Market Price Volatility in Nigeria: A Cointegrated VAR-GARCH Model

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
David Adugh Kuhe
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and stock market price volatility in Nigeria using cointegrated Vector Generalized Autoregressive conditional Heteroskedasticity (VAR-GARCH) model. The study utilizes monthly data on the study variables from January 2006 to April 2017 and employs Dickey-Fuller Generalized least squares unit root test, simple linear regression model, unrestricted vector autoregressive model, Granger causality test and standard GARCH model as methods of analysis. Results shows that the study variables are integrated of order one, no long-run stable relationship was found to exist between crude oil prices and stock market prices in Nigeria. Both crude oil prices and stock market prices were found to have positive and significant impact on each other indicating that an increase in crude oil prices will increase stock market prices and vice versa. Both crude oil prices and stock market prices were found to have predictive information on one another in the long-run. A one-way causality ran from crude oil prices to stock market prices suggesting that crude oil prices determine stock prices and are a driven force in Nigerian stock market. Results of GARCH (1,1) models show high persistence of shocks in the conditional variance of both returns. The conditional volatility of stock market price log return was found to be stable and predictable while that of crude oil price log return was found to be unstable and unpredictable, although a dependable and dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and stock market prices was found to exist. The study provides some policy recommendations.

The optimal thermal causal path analysis on the relationship between international crude oil price and stock market

Kybernetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 1242-1261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Can Zhong Yao ◽  
Peng Cheng Kuang ◽  
Ji Nan Lin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Causal Path

Purpose The purpose of this study is to reveal the lead–lag structure between international crude oil price and stock markets. Design/methodology/approach The methods used for this study are as follows: empirical mode decomposition; shift-window-based Pearson coefficient and thermal causal path method. Findings The fluctuation characteristic of Chinese stock market before 2010 is very similar to international crude oil prices. After 2010, their fluctuation patterns are significantly different from each other. The two stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices, revealing varying lead–lag orders among stock markets. During 2000 and 2004, the stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices but they are less distinct from the lead–lag orders. After 2004, the effects changed so that the leading effect of Shanghai composite index remains no longer significant, and after 2012, S&P index just significantly lagged behind the international crude oil prices. Originality/value China and the US stock markets develop different pattens to handle the crude oil prices fluctuation after finance crisis in 1998.

scholarly journals Volatility in Crude Oil Prices and its Impact on Indian Stock Market Evidence from BSE Sensex#

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
S. Sathyanarayana ◽  
S.N. Harish ◽  
Sudhindra Gargesha ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Effects of Crude Oil and Gold Prices on US Stock Market: Evidence for USA from ARDL Bounds Testing

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
AKM Matiur Rahman ◽  
Muhammad Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Run

<p>This paper explores the effects of changes in crude oil and gold prices on US Stock market movement. Daily data are used from the first business day of January, 1986 through December30, 2016. Efficient unit root tests (DF-GLS and Ng-Perron) are applied to examine the time series property of the variables in terms of stationarity or non-stationarity.  ARDL Bounds Testing is applied for co-integration. Both DF-GLS and Ng-Perron tests confirm non-stationarity of each variable and depict I (1) behavior of all the variables in log-levels, included in this study. The ARDL-Bounds testing confirm co-integration among the variables. There is evidence of long-run convergence among all these variables with very tepid adjustment toward the equilibrium. Short-run negative effects of changes in gold and crude oil prices on US stock market returns are observed. The effect is statistically significant from gold price changes, but insignificant from crude oil price changes.</p>

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