probability discounting
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Author(s):  
Mina Ličen ◽  
Sergeja Slapničar

AbstractThis paper examines the impact of process accountability on two biases causing myopic or short-sighted decision making. These biases are strong preferences for immediate and certain outcomes known as delay and risk aversion. We hypothesize that accountability alone is insufficient to undo the biases, but if coupled with a cue on subjective discount rates, it will attenuate biases. To analyze our research question, we used a within- and between-subjects experimental design (two accountability conditions compared with a non-accountability condition and with each other) with delay and probability discounting choice tasks involving 118 students of accounting, finance and management in an online experiment. In line with our hypotheses, we find that process accountability successfully reduces excessive delay and risk aversion only if it provides a cue about the subjective discount rate. We discuss the implications of our findings for management control.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Rana Asgarova

<p>Prospect Theory models behaviour in one-off decisions where outcomes are described. Prospect Theory describes risk aversion when the choice is between gains and risk seeking when the choice is between losses. This asymmetry is known as the reflection effect. In choices about experienced outcomes, individuals show risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses. This change in the direction of gain-loss asymmetry is known as the description-experience gap. Across eight experiments, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in two experiential choice procedures. We compared the obtained results with predictions derived from Prospect Theory and the description-experience gap literature.  In Study 1, we evaluated the predictions of the reversed reflection effect in probability discounting. Probability discounting is loss in reinforcer value as a function of uncertainty. In typical tasks measuring discounting, participants choose between smaller, certain amounts and a larger amount at one of several probabilities. In choice from description, most participants show a gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of the reflection effect, discounting gains more steeply than losses. Across three experiments, we examined whether gain-loss asymmetry also occurred when participants experienced the outcomes they chose, when they chose between two uncertain options, and when these two contexts were combined. Across all of the above contexts, no consistent mean difference in discounting of gains and losses was observed. Rather, in most of the tasks that provided experienced outcomes, the participants showed steeper discounting in the first condition completed, whether it involved choices about gains or losses. Furthermore, subsequent conditions produced shallower discounting, but notably, not shallower than choice based on the expected value of the options. In Studies 2 and 3, we followed-up on this order effect by providing the participants with experience of probabilistic outcomes before the discounting tasks. Participants discounted losses more steeply than gains, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect.  In Study 2, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in a rapid-acquisition choice procedure using concurrent variable-interval schedules – the Auckland Card Task. Participants repeatedly chose between two decks of cards that varied in the frequency or magnitude of available gains or losses. Participants were more sensitive to changes in gain than loss frequency between the two decks, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect, while sensitivity to gain and loss magnitude did not show an asymmetry. We found a novel asymmetry in the local effects of gains and losses. In the frequency tasks, gains disrupted the general pattern of responding more than losses. In the magnitude tasks, varying the magnitude of losses had a bigger effect on local-level patterns following outcomes than varying the magnitude of gains.  Across the two tasks we observed patterns of gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect. We also observed several inconsistencies, particularly when comparing behaviour to choices that would maximize the expected returns. Our research suggested that sufficient exposure to chance outcomes and ensuring delivery of scheduled events are key challenges in further refinement of experiential choice in human operant tasks.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Rana Asgarova

<p>Prospect Theory models behaviour in one-off decisions where outcomes are described. Prospect Theory describes risk aversion when the choice is between gains and risk seeking when the choice is between losses. This asymmetry is known as the reflection effect. In choices about experienced outcomes, individuals show risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses. This change in the direction of gain-loss asymmetry is known as the description-experience gap. Across eight experiments, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in two experiential choice procedures. We compared the obtained results with predictions derived from Prospect Theory and the description-experience gap literature.  In Study 1, we evaluated the predictions of the reversed reflection effect in probability discounting. Probability discounting is loss in reinforcer value as a function of uncertainty. In typical tasks measuring discounting, participants choose between smaller, certain amounts and a larger amount at one of several probabilities. In choice from description, most participants show a gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of the reflection effect, discounting gains more steeply than losses. Across three experiments, we examined whether gain-loss asymmetry also occurred when participants experienced the outcomes they chose, when they chose between two uncertain options, and when these two contexts were combined. Across all of the above contexts, no consistent mean difference in discounting of gains and losses was observed. Rather, in most of the tasks that provided experienced outcomes, the participants showed steeper discounting in the first condition completed, whether it involved choices about gains or losses. Furthermore, subsequent conditions produced shallower discounting, but notably, not shallower than choice based on the expected value of the options. In Studies 2 and 3, we followed-up on this order effect by providing the participants with experience of probabilistic outcomes before the discounting tasks. Participants discounted losses more steeply than gains, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect.  In Study 2, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in a rapid-acquisition choice procedure using concurrent variable-interval schedules – the Auckland Card Task. Participants repeatedly chose between two decks of cards that varied in the frequency or magnitude of available gains or losses. Participants were more sensitive to changes in gain than loss frequency between the two decks, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect, while sensitivity to gain and loss magnitude did not show an asymmetry. We found a novel asymmetry in the local effects of gains and losses. In the frequency tasks, gains disrupted the general pattern of responding more than losses. In the magnitude tasks, varying the magnitude of losses had a bigger effect on local-level patterns following outcomes than varying the magnitude of gains.  Across the two tasks we observed patterns of gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect. We also observed several inconsistencies, particularly when comparing behaviour to choices that would maximize the expected returns. Our research suggested that sufficient exposure to chance outcomes and ensuring delivery of scheduled events are key challenges in further refinement of experiential choice in human operant tasks.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Anna Karin Greenhow

<p>Temporal and probability discounting refer to the decrease in subjective value of rewards that are either delayed or uncertain. Comparatively high degrees of discounting have been linked to other indices of impulsivity in both animals and humans, but the study of human discounting has primarily relied on participant reports of preferences between hypothetical outcomes. A number studies to date have illustrated not only how sensitive these preferences are to manipulations within such hypothetical procedures, but also that tasks where each consequence is actually experienced are able to capture changes in behaviour that hypothetical tasks may not. The current thesis examined temporal and probability discounting using a novel experiential discounting task in the form of a computer game-based discounting task in which the delays or probabilities of the preferred outcomes were experienced following each choice. The game had participants collect points by skiing over jumps, and discounting choices between either immediate and delayed or certain and uncertain point outcomes provided additional opportunities for point gain. Discounting was examined across four samples primarily composed of university students. Experiment 1, a test of the newly created task in two parts, assessed the most appropriate descriptive model of both temporal and probability discounting, as well as examined the relation between the two, hypothetical discounting and self-report measures of impulsivity and risk taking. Experiment 2 examined the effect of magnitude manipulations on both temporal and probability discounting. Experiment 3 examined the effect on degree of temporal discounting of manipulations to post-reward delays and access to alternative reinforcement during this period. Lastly, Experiment 4 attempted to manipulate the association between delay and risk and examined the impact of this on discounting of delayed outcomes. Participants across all studies showed systematic decreases in subjective value of both delayed and uncertain point outcomes. However, the shape of this decrease in value differed across the two types of outcomes, as did the effect of the magnitude manipulations. Furthermore, neither post-reinforcement duration, access to alternative reinforcement, nor experience with risk influenced degree of temporal discounting. The results are discussed in terms of single process accounts of discounting, the implications for individual trait interpretations of discounting and the relevance of experiential and hypothetical discounting to the construct of impulsivity.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Anna Karin Greenhow

<p>Temporal and probability discounting refer to the decrease in subjective value of rewards that are either delayed or uncertain. Comparatively high degrees of discounting have been linked to other indices of impulsivity in both animals and humans, but the study of human discounting has primarily relied on participant reports of preferences between hypothetical outcomes. A number studies to date have illustrated not only how sensitive these preferences are to manipulations within such hypothetical procedures, but also that tasks where each consequence is actually experienced are able to capture changes in behaviour that hypothetical tasks may not. The current thesis examined temporal and probability discounting using a novel experiential discounting task in the form of a computer game-based discounting task in which the delays or probabilities of the preferred outcomes were experienced following each choice. The game had participants collect points by skiing over jumps, and discounting choices between either immediate and delayed or certain and uncertain point outcomes provided additional opportunities for point gain. Discounting was examined across four samples primarily composed of university students. Experiment 1, a test of the newly created task in two parts, assessed the most appropriate descriptive model of both temporal and probability discounting, as well as examined the relation between the two, hypothetical discounting and self-report measures of impulsivity and risk taking. Experiment 2 examined the effect of magnitude manipulations on both temporal and probability discounting. Experiment 3 examined the effect on degree of temporal discounting of manipulations to post-reward delays and access to alternative reinforcement during this period. Lastly, Experiment 4 attempted to manipulate the association between delay and risk and examined the impact of this on discounting of delayed outcomes. Participants across all studies showed systematic decreases in subjective value of both delayed and uncertain point outcomes. However, the shape of this decrease in value differed across the two types of outcomes, as did the effect of the magnitude manipulations. Furthermore, neither post-reinforcement duration, access to alternative reinforcement, nor experience with risk influenced degree of temporal discounting. The results are discussed in terms of single process accounts of discounting, the implications for individual trait interpretations of discounting and the relevance of experiential and hypothetical discounting to the construct of impulsivity.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1407
Author(s):  
Cinzia Calluso ◽  
Maria Giovanna Devetag ◽  
Carmela Donato

Temporal and probability discounting are considered two fundamental constructs in economic science, as they are associated with phenomena with major societal impact and a variety of sub-optimal behaviors and clinical conditions. Although it is well known that positive and negative affective states bear important cognitive/behavioral consequences, the effect of emotional experiences on decision-making remains unclear due to the existence of many conflicting results. Inspired by the need to understand if and to what extent the current COVID-19 pandemic has determined changes in our decision-making processes by means of the unusual, prolonged experience of negative feelings, in this study we investigate the effect of anger, fear, sadness, physical and moral disgust on intertemporal and risky choices. Results show that all emotions significantly increase subjects’ preferences for immediate rewards over delayed ones, and for risky rewards over certain ones, in comparison to a “neutral emotion” condition, although the magnitude of the effect differs across emotions. In particular, we observed a more pronounced effect in the case of sadness and moral disgust. These findings contribute to the literature on emotions and decision-making by offering an alternative explanation to the traditional motivational appraisal theories. Specifically, we propose that the increased preference for immediate gratification and risky outcomes serves as a mechanism of self-reward aimed at down-regulating negative feelings and restore the individual’s “emotional balance”.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerardo R Rojas ◽  
Lisa S Curry-Pochy ◽  
Cathy S Chen ◽  
Abigail T Heller ◽  
Nicola M Grissom

Delay discounting and probability discounting decision making tasks in rodent models have high translational potential. However, it is unclear whether the discounted value of the large reward option is the main contributor to variability in animals' choices in either task, which may limit translatability to human discounting data. Male and female mice underwent sessions of delay and probability discounting in sequence to assess how choice behavior adapts over experience with each task. To control for "anchoring" (persistent choices based on the initial delay or probability), mice experienced "Worsening" schedules where the large reward was offered under initially favorable delay or probability conditions that became less favorable during testing, followed by "Improving" schedules where the large reward was offered under initially unfavorable conditions that improved over a session. During delay discounting, both male and female mice showed elimination of anchoring effects over training. In probability discounting, both sexes of mice continued to show some anchoring even after months of training. One possibility is that noisy action selection could contribute to these anchoring effects, rather than persistent fluctuations in value discounting. We fit choice behavior in individual animals using models that included both a value-based discounting parameter and a decision noise parameter that captured variability in choices deviating from value maximization. Changes in anchoring behavior over time were tracked by changes in our decision noise parameter, not the value parameter. Thus, changes in discounting behavior in mice can result from changes in exploration of the environment rather than changes in reward valuation.


2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 219-228
Author(s):  
Sean B. Dolan ◽  
Matthew W. Johnson ◽  
Kelly E. Dunn ◽  
Andrew S. Huhn

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