scholarly journals Gain-loss asymmetry in human experiential tasks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Rana Asgarova

<p>Prospect Theory models behaviour in one-off decisions where outcomes are described. Prospect Theory describes risk aversion when the choice is between gains and risk seeking when the choice is between losses. This asymmetry is known as the reflection effect. In choices about experienced outcomes, individuals show risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses. This change in the direction of gain-loss asymmetry is known as the description-experience gap. Across eight experiments, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in two experiential choice procedures. We compared the obtained results with predictions derived from Prospect Theory and the description-experience gap literature.  In Study 1, we evaluated the predictions of the reversed reflection effect in probability discounting. Probability discounting is loss in reinforcer value as a function of uncertainty. In typical tasks measuring discounting, participants choose between smaller, certain amounts and a larger amount at one of several probabilities. In choice from description, most participants show a gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of the reflection effect, discounting gains more steeply than losses. Across three experiments, we examined whether gain-loss asymmetry also occurred when participants experienced the outcomes they chose, when they chose between two uncertain options, and when these two contexts were combined. Across all of the above contexts, no consistent mean difference in discounting of gains and losses was observed. Rather, in most of the tasks that provided experienced outcomes, the participants showed steeper discounting in the first condition completed, whether it involved choices about gains or losses. Furthermore, subsequent conditions produced shallower discounting, but notably, not shallower than choice based on the expected value of the options. In Studies 2 and 3, we followed-up on this order effect by providing the participants with experience of probabilistic outcomes before the discounting tasks. Participants discounted losses more steeply than gains, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect.  In Study 2, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in a rapid-acquisition choice procedure using concurrent variable-interval schedules – the Auckland Card Task. Participants repeatedly chose between two decks of cards that varied in the frequency or magnitude of available gains or losses. Participants were more sensitive to changes in gain than loss frequency between the two decks, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect, while sensitivity to gain and loss magnitude did not show an asymmetry. We found a novel asymmetry in the local effects of gains and losses. In the frequency tasks, gains disrupted the general pattern of responding more than losses. In the magnitude tasks, varying the magnitude of losses had a bigger effect on local-level patterns following outcomes than varying the magnitude of gains.  Across the two tasks we observed patterns of gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect. We also observed several inconsistencies, particularly when comparing behaviour to choices that would maximize the expected returns. Our research suggested that sufficient exposure to chance outcomes and ensuring delivery of scheduled events are key challenges in further refinement of experiential choice in human operant tasks.</p>

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Rana Asgarova

<p>Prospect Theory models behaviour in one-off decisions where outcomes are described. Prospect Theory describes risk aversion when the choice is between gains and risk seeking when the choice is between losses. This asymmetry is known as the reflection effect. In choices about experienced outcomes, individuals show risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses. This change in the direction of gain-loss asymmetry is known as the description-experience gap. Across eight experiments, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in two experiential choice procedures. We compared the obtained results with predictions derived from Prospect Theory and the description-experience gap literature.  In Study 1, we evaluated the predictions of the reversed reflection effect in probability discounting. Probability discounting is loss in reinforcer value as a function of uncertainty. In typical tasks measuring discounting, participants choose between smaller, certain amounts and a larger amount at one of several probabilities. In choice from description, most participants show a gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of the reflection effect, discounting gains more steeply than losses. Across three experiments, we examined whether gain-loss asymmetry also occurred when participants experienced the outcomes they chose, when they chose between two uncertain options, and when these two contexts were combined. Across all of the above contexts, no consistent mean difference in discounting of gains and losses was observed. Rather, in most of the tasks that provided experienced outcomes, the participants showed steeper discounting in the first condition completed, whether it involved choices about gains or losses. Furthermore, subsequent conditions produced shallower discounting, but notably, not shallower than choice based on the expected value of the options. In Studies 2 and 3, we followed-up on this order effect by providing the participants with experience of probabilistic outcomes before the discounting tasks. Participants discounted losses more steeply than gains, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect.  In Study 2, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in a rapid-acquisition choice procedure using concurrent variable-interval schedules – the Auckland Card Task. Participants repeatedly chose between two decks of cards that varied in the frequency or magnitude of available gains or losses. Participants were more sensitive to changes in gain than loss frequency between the two decks, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect, while sensitivity to gain and loss magnitude did not show an asymmetry. We found a novel asymmetry in the local effects of gains and losses. In the frequency tasks, gains disrupted the general pattern of responding more than losses. In the magnitude tasks, varying the magnitude of losses had a bigger effect on local-level patterns following outcomes than varying the magnitude of gains.  Across the two tasks we observed patterns of gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect. We also observed several inconsistencies, particularly when comparing behaviour to choices that would maximize the expected returns. Our research suggested that sufficient exposure to chance outcomes and ensuring delivery of scheduled events are key challenges in further refinement of experiential choice in human operant tasks.</p>


2003 ◽  
Vol 93 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1077-1079 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Mancini ◽  
Amelia Gangemi

We hypothesize that individuals' choices (risk-seeking/risk-aversion) depend on moral values and, in particular, on how subjects evaluate themselves as guilty or as victims of a wrong rather than on the descriptions of the outcomes as given in the options and evaluated accordingly as gains or losses (framing effect). People who evaluate themselves as victims are expected to show a risk-seeking preference (context of innocence). People who evaluate themselves as guilty are expected to show a risk-averse preference (context of guilt). Responses of 232 participants to a decision problem were compared in four different conditions involving two-story formats (innocence/guilt) and two-question-options formats (gain/loss). Regardless of the format of the question options, the story format appears to be an important determinant of individuals' preferences.


1988 ◽  
Vol 82 (3) ◽  
pp. 719-736 ◽  
Author(s):  
George A. Quattrone ◽  
Amos Tversky

We contrast the rational theory of choice in the form of expected utility theory with descriptive psychological analysis in the form of prospect theory, using problems involving the choice between political candidates and public referendum issues. The results showed that the assumptions underlying the classical theory of risky choice are systematically violated in the manner predicted by prospect theory. In particular, our respondents exhibited risk aversion in the domain of gains, risk seeking in the domain of losses, and a greater sensitivity to losses than to gains. This is consistent with the advantage of the incumbent under normal conditions and the potential advantage of the challenger in bad times. The results further show how a shift in the reference point could lead to reversals of preferences in the evaluation of political and economic options, contrary to the assumption of invariance. Finally, we contrast the normative and descriptive analyses of uncertainty in choice and address the rationality of voting.


2011 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 289-300
Author(s):  
Robert R. Mowrer ◽  
William B. Davidson

Two studies are reported that investigate the applicability of prospect theory to college students' academic decision making. Exp. 1 failed to provide support for the risk-seeking portion of the fourfold pattern predicted by prospect theory but did find the greater weighting of losses over gains. Using a more sensitive dependent measure, in Exp. 2 the results of the first experiment were replicated in terms of the gain-loss effect and also found some support for the fourfold pattern in the interaction between probabilities and gain versus loss. The greatest risk-seeking was found in the high probability loss condition.


2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 1047-1073 ◽  
Author(s):  
Botond Kőszegi ◽  
Matthew Rabin

We use Kőszegi and Rabin's (2006) model of reference-dependent utility, and an extension of it that applies to decisions with delayed consequences, to study preferences over monetary risk. Because our theory equates the reference point with recent probabilistic beliefs about outcomes, it predicts specific ways in which the environment influences attitudes toward modest-scale risk. It replicates “classical” prospect theory—including the prediction of distaste for insuring losses—when exposure to risk is a surprise, but implies first-order risk aversion when a risk, and the possibility of insuring it, are anticipated. A prior expectation to take on risk decreases aversion to both the anticipated and additional risk. For large-scale risk, the model allows for standard “consumption utility” to dominate reference-dependent “gain-loss utility,” generating nearly identical risk aversion across situations. (JEL D81)


2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 81-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahabeddin Shams ◽  
Fatemeh Rezvani

This study measures the portfolio performance of listed investment companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) based on prospect theory. The criterion is measured by the ratio of gain to loss, to reflect risk-aversion in gains and risk-seeking in losses. The sample consists of 15 listed investment companies registered in TSE during 2003-2013. Research variables consist of portfolio return, market return, risk-free return, systematic risk, Treynor and Loss Aversion index. Hypotheses have been tested with Spearman correlation coefficient. The results show that Loss Aversion can be used as a new index for measuring portfolio performance.


2020 ◽  
pp. 1-45
Author(s):  
Han Bleichrodt ◽  
Paul van Bruggen

Higher order risk preferences are important determinants of economic behaviour. We apply insights from behavioural economics: we measure higher order risk preferences for pure gains and losses. We find a reflection effect not only for second order risk preferences, like Kahneman and Tversky (1979), but also for higher order risk preferences: we find risk aversion, prudence and intemperance for gains, and much more risk loving preferences, imprudence and temperance for losses. These findings are at odds with a universal preference for combining good with bad or good with good, which previous results suggest may underlie higher order risk preferences.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lili Tan ◽  
Siyuan Li ◽  
Xiaomin Zhang

Prospect theory predicts a four-fold risk attitude, which means that people are risk seeking for low-probability gain and high-probability loss and risk averse for low-probability loss and high-probability gain because they overweight probability when it is low. The four-fold pattern of risk attitude has been supported by several former studies with mainstream industrialized populations but has never previously been tested in a non-industrialized society. In this work, we examined the robustness of the four-fold risk attitude in the DuLong minority ethnicity in China, which is a small society with only 4,000 members that is isolated from modern civilization. We used simple lotteries for gain and loss with different probabilities to elicit the risk attitude of 37 DuLong villagers. Our results support prospect theory predictions in that DuLong people are risk seeking for low-probability gain and risk averse for low-probability loss. However, although they showed a tendency to decrease their degree of risk seeking (risk aversion) for gain (loss), their risk attitude did not reverse when the probability of the prospect increased to 50%. In summary, our results suggest a right-shifted weighting function in this non-industrialized small society. The deviation might be caused by the particular living situation of the DuLong people, their sensitivity to monetary payoffs, and the elicitation procedure.


2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 351-359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subimal Chatterjee ◽  
Gizem Atav ◽  
Junhong Min ◽  
David Taylor

Purpose – The paper aims to investigate the role of uncertainty avoidance (UA) as a moderator of Prospect Theory’s reflection effect (i.e. the simultaneous choice of a sure gain and a risky loss). We expect that higher-UA consumers, seeking certainty, will shun risk across both gains and losses such that their choices will be inconsistent with the reflection effect. Design/methodology/approach – We report three studies in which participants choose between risk and certainty. We use the stimuli from the original Prospect Theory paper, measure UA using an individual-level scale and conduct controlled experimental (laboratory) studies. Findings – We show that, compared to lower-UA consumers, higher-UA consumers demonstrate the reflection effect less frequently in a variety of settings (small/large stakes and within/between subjects comparisons). Mediation tests reveal that higher-UA consumers anchor on the sure loss and stay with their choice because they prefer the certainty of the sure (smaller) loss to the possibility of a possible (larger) loss (a dual-mediation mechanism). Research limitations/implications – The results have important implications for marketing practice. They show that quantifying uncertainty into a probability number is not enough to eliminate the uncertainty of the situation, and that UA is likely serve as a boundary condition to many of the traditional heuristics of judgment and decision-making. Originality/value – This is the first paper to demonstrate that UA can moderate the reflection effect (using the stimuli in the original Prospect Theory paper). Therefore, it sets an agenda for future researchers who may want to use these findings to calibrate price/uncertainty tradeoffs within higher-UA segments.


Revista CEA ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (11) ◽  
pp. 45-69
Author(s):  
Maria Teresa V. D. Alves

This study aims to question the assumptions of prospect theory using a sample of students enrolled in a master’s course on accounting and finance at a Portuguese polytechnic institution. Such theory has stood out among others developed in the field of Behavioural Finance due to the debate and investigation it has generated. To achieve this aim, we applied a questionnaire four consecutive years (2012–2015). The instrument included a set of alternative response questions that seek to unveil respondents’ preferences regarding the situations they were presented with. Bibliographic and descriptive research was carried out and the results were compared with those obtained by other authors but they were not always consistent. Thus, the isolation effect was confirmed; the reflection effect was almost always confirmed; and the certainty effect was not always confirmed. Regarding attitude toward risk, the assumptions of risk aversion, and importance given to changes in wealth (at the expense of wealth states), our results are in line with those obtained by said authors. Hence, this study contributes to support prospect theory with its results and the confirmation of the isolation effect.


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