Uncertainty in Building Inspection and Diagnosis: A Probabilistic Model Quantification

In the field of building inspection and diagnosis, uncertainty is common and surveyors are aware of it, although it is not easily measured. This research proposes a model to quantify uncertainty based on the inspection of rendered façades. A Bayesian network is developed, considering three levels of variables: characteristics of the building, façade and exposure conditions; causes of defects; and defects. To compute conditional probabilities, the results of an inspection campaign from the literature are used. Then, the proposed model is validated and verified using inspection results from another sample, the combination of a strength-of-influence diagram and sensitivity analysis and the application of the model to a case study. Results show that the probabilities computed by the model are a reasonable representation of the hesitancy in decision making during the diagnosis process based only on visual observation. For instance, design and execution errors show lower probabilities due to not being verifiable a posteriori without detailed documentation. The proposed model may be extended and replicated for other building materials in the future, as it may be a useful tool to improve the perception of uncertainty in a key stage of building maintenance or rehabilitation.

Supply Chain Risk Prevention and Control Based on Fuzzy Influence Diagram and Discrete Hopfield Neural Network

Efficient and reasonable supply chain management helps enterprises improve their efficiency, reduce costs, shorten cash flow times, and reduce enterprise risks. Risk prevention and control is a safety symbol for supply chains. To explore different influence degrees of multirisk factors and multilinks on enterprises, we propose a supply chain risk prevention and control model based on a fuzzy influence diagram and Hopfield neural network. Using the model that both calculates the risk size and occurrence probability of the supply chain and allows identifying various risk prevention and control levels, the supply chain risk is evaluated both objectively and fairly. We analyzed the theoretical and practical properties of supply chain risk prevention and control models and used it in the H company to illustrate this model.

Probabilistic Model-Based Malaria Disease Recognition System

In this paper, we present a probabilistic-based method to predict malaria disease at an early stage. Malaria is a very dangerous disease that creates a lot of health problems. Therefore, there is a need for a system that helps us to recognize this disease at early stages through the visual symptoms and from the environmental data. In this paper, we proposed a Bayesian network (BN) model to predict the occurrences of malaria disease. The proposed BN model is built on different attributes of the patient’s symptoms and environmental data which are divided into training and testing parts. Our proposed BN model when evaluated on the collected dataset found promising results with an accuracy of 81%. One the other hand, F1 score is also a good evaluation of these probabilistic models because there is a huge variation in class data. The complexity of these models is very high due to the increase of parent nodes in the given influence diagram, and the conditional probability table (CPT) also becomes more complex.