scholarly journals Uncertainty in Building Inspection and Diagnosis: A Probabilistic Model Quantification

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (9) ◽  
pp. 124
Author(s):  
Clara Pereira ◽  
Ana Silva ◽  
Cláudia Ferreira ◽  
Jorge de Brito ◽  
Inês Flores-Colen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Building Materials ◽  
Visual Observation ◽  
Influence Diagram ◽  
A Posteriori ◽  
Conditional Probabilities ◽  
Building Maintenance ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Study Results

In the field of building inspection and diagnosis, uncertainty is common and surveyors are aware of it, although it is not easily measured. This research proposes a model to quantify uncertainty based on the inspection of rendered façades. A Bayesian network is developed, considering three levels of variables: characteristics of the building, façade and exposure conditions; causes of defects; and defects. To compute conditional probabilities, the results of an inspection campaign from the literature are used. Then, the proposed model is validated and verified using inspection results from another sample, the combination of a strength-of-influence diagram and sensitivity analysis and the application of the model to a case study. Results show that the probabilities computed by the model are a reasonable representation of the hesitancy in decision making during the diagnosis process based only on visual observation. For instance, design and execution errors show lower probabilities due to not being verifiable a posteriori without detailed documentation. The proposed model may be extended and replicated for other building materials in the future, as it may be a useful tool to improve the perception of uncertainty in a key stage of building maintenance or rehabilitation.

Learning from failures: Design improvements using a multiple criteria decision-making process

2003 ◽  
Vol 217 (4) ◽  
pp. 207-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
G G Davidson ◽  
A W Labib
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Multiple Criteria ◽  
Mathematical Representation ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Invaluable Tool ◽  
History Of

This paper proposes a new concept of decision analysis based on a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) process. This is achieved through the provision of a systematic and generic methodology for the implementation of design improvements based on experience of past failures. This is illustrated in the form of a case study identifying the changes made to Concorde after the 2000 accident. The proposed model uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) mathematical model as a backbone and integrates elements of a modified failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). The AHP has proven to be an invaluable tool for decision support since it allows a fully documented and transparent decision to be made with full accountability. In addition, it facilitates the task of justifying improvement decisions. The paper is divided as follows: the first section presents an outline of the background to the Concorde accident and its history of related (non-catastrophic) malfunctions. The AHP methodology and its mathematical representation are then presented with the integrated FMEA applied to the Concorde accident. The case study arrives at the same conclusion as engineers working on Concorde after the accident: that the aircraft may fly again if the lining of the fuel tanks are modified.

scholarly journals A fuzzy-TOPSIS model for maintenance outsourcing considering the quality of submitted tender documents

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 443-453
Author(s):  
Maysa Alshraideh ◽  
Shereen Ababneh ◽  
Elif Elcin Gunay ◽  
Omar Al-Araidah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Selection Criteria ◽  
Fuzzy Topsis ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Maintenance Outsourcing ◽  
Multiple Experts ◽  
Decision Making Model

The paper provides a multiple-experts Fuzzy-TOPSIS decision-making model for the selection among maintenance contractors based on the quality of tendering documents. The study introduces a set of selection criteria utilizing benefit and cost criteria from literature. The proposed model aggregates subjective linguistic assessments of multiple experts that express their opinions on the degree of importance of criteria and allows multiple decisionmakers to evaluate the compliance of contractors’ documents. For a case study, the model is applied to select among contractors tendering to maintain the heavy-duty cranes of an international steel company from literature. Several decision-making scenarios are investigated, and major changes in the final decision are observed. The changes in obtained results illustrate the need to better address uncertainties in rating and tendering an overqualified contractor at a higher cost.

scholarly journals Multiple Attribute Decision Making (MADM) in Proportional-Stop-Loss Reinsurance

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiexuan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Multiple Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Multiple Attribute ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Stop Loss

This article addresses reinsurance decision making process, which involves the insurance company and the reinsurance company, and is negotiated through reinsurance intermediaries. The article proposes a decision flow to model the reinsurance design and selection process. In contrast to existing literature on pure proportional reinsurance or stop-loss reinsurance, this article focuses on the combination into Proportional-Stop-loss reinsurance design which better addresses interest of both parties. In terms of methodology, the significant contribution of the study is to incorporate Multiple Attribute Decision Making (MADM) into modelling the reinsurance selection. The Multi-Objective Decision Making (MODM) model is applied in designing reinsurance alternatives. Then MADM is applied to aid insurance companies in choosing the most appropriate reinsurance contract. To illustrate the feasibility of incorporating intelligent decision supporting system in reinsurance market, the study includes a numerical case study using simulation software @Risk in modeling insurance claims, and programming in MATLAB to realize MADM. Managerial implications could be drawn from the case study results. More specifically, when choosing the most appropriate reinsurance, insurance companies should base their decision on multiple measurements instead of single-criteria decision making models for their decisions to be more robust.

A novel model for risk management of outsourced construction projects using decision-making methods: a case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amin Mahmoudi ◽  
Mehdi Abbasi ◽  
Xiaopeng Deng ◽  
Muhammad Ikram ◽  
Salman Yeganeh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Suitable Alternative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Cost ◽  
First Time

PurposeSelecting a suitable contract to outsource construction projects is an ongoing concern for project managers and organizational directors. This study aims to propose a comprehensive model to manage the risks of outsourced construction project contracts.Design/methodology/approachTo employ the proposed model, firstly, the types of contracts and risks in the organization should be identified, then, to prioritize the contracts, the identified risks are considered as criteria. After receiving the experts' opinions, the best–worst method (BWM) integrated with grey relation analysis (GRA) method was used to prioritize the contracts. BWM and GRA are multi-criteria decision-making methods with different approaches and applications. In the current study, BWM has been employed to calculate the weights of criteria because it has better performance than other methods such as the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). After calculating the weights of criteria, the GRA method has been utilized for ranking the alternatives.FindingsAccording to the results obtained from the case study, the cost plus award fee contract is the most suitable alternative for outsourcing construction projects. The proposed methodology can be practically applied through different types of the projects such as construction or “engineering, procurement and construction”.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first time a conceptual model has been proposed to select an appropriate contract for construction projects. Also, for the first time, the BWM integrated with GRA method has been used to prioritize project contracts based on the potential risks. The proposed model can contribute to project managers for selecting a suitable contract with the least risk in construction projects.

Strategic Decision Making for Outsourcing Information Systems with a Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision-Making Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Modiri ◽  
Mohammad Dashti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Analytic Network Process ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Service Support ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Network Process ◽  
Selection Of

Today, IS supplier selection is one of the most critical steps in the outsourcing process; the success of outsourcing is highly dependent on the selection of IS suppliers. This paper proposes a new hybrid fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model, which uses decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) technique, analytic network process (ANP), and Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje(VIKOR) to evaluate four potential suppliers using seven factors and five decision makers using a realistic case study. the results showed that Service support is importance for outsourcing. The proposed model can help practitioners improve their decision making process.

A fuzzy-logic model for benchmarking concrete roof maintenance

Facilities ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (7/8) ◽  
pp. 568-583
Author(s):  
Sanduni Peiris ◽  
Nayanthara De Silva
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Concrete Structures ◽  
Logic Model ◽  
Maintenance Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Decision Making Tool

Purpose Concrete structures undergo early and fast deterioration, which causes defects such as cracks, water leaks and delamination, resulting from a lack of or inefficient maintenance practices. To improve this behaviour, this paper aims to develop a maintenance strategy benchmarking model for concrete structures. Design/methodology/approach Fuzzy logic toolbox on MATLAB R2018a was used to develop the proposed model and it was applied to two cases. A comprehensive literature search was done to review common concrete defects, their impact on the performance and functionality of the structure, effectiveness of maintenance strategies and previous maintenance benchmarking models. The literature findings were further validated through expert interviews which have been incorporated in the model. Findings Case study results show that preventive maintenance (PM), predictive maintenance (PdM) and corrective maintenance (CM) strategies are required more or less in similar combinations for maintenance of concrete roof structures. The best combination for case 1 is 36.42% PM, 35.40% PdM and 28.18% CM, and for case 2 is 35.93% PM, 35.08% PdM and 28.99% CM. According to suitability, they can be ranked as PM > PdM > CM. Originality/value This model will contribute as a comprehensive decision-making tool for building/facility managers. The findings further carry a strong message to those who practice only CM in their buildings.

scholarly journals Decision-Making Tool for Enhancing the Sustainable Management of Cultural Institutions: Season Content Programming at Palau De La Música Catalana

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 5785
Author(s):  
Maria del Mar Casanovas-Rubio ◽  
Carolina Christen ◽  
Luz María Valarezo ◽  
Jaume Bofill ◽  
Nela Filimon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Qualitative Interviews ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Cultural Institutions ◽  
Cultural Institution ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Cultural Sector

There has been an increasing relevance of the cultural sector in the economic and social development of different countries. However, this sector continues without much input from multi-criteria decision-making (MDCM) techniques and sustainability analysis, which are widely used in other sectors. This paper proposes an MCDM model to assess the sustainability of a musical institution’s program. To define the parameters of the proposed model, qualitative interviews with relevant representatives of Catalan cultural institutions and highly recognized professionals in the sector were performed. The content of the 2015–2016 season of the ‘Palau de la Música Catalana’, a relevant Catalan musical institution located in Barcelona, was used as a case study to empirically test the method. The method allows the calculation of a season value index (SVI), which serves to make more sustainable decisions on musical season programs according to the established criteria. The sensitivity analysis carried out for different scenarios shows the robustness of the method. The research suggests that more complex decision settings, such as MCDM methods that are widely used in other sectors, can be easily applied to the sustainable management of any type of cultural institution. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this method was never applied to a cultural institution and with real data.

scholarly journals Comparing best-worst method and full consistency method in a fuzzy environment

2022 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-192
Author(s):  
Arash Haqbin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real World ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Environment ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Mcdm Method ◽  
Consistency Method ◽  
Best Worst Method

Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) is one the most important branches of decision theory. Due to the fact that MCDM methods have the utmost significance in management, scholars try to develop more MCDM methods. Since calculating the weights of criteria is an important step in any MCDM method, increasing the accuracy of weight calculating methods can highly affect these methods. This accuracy can be improved by less pairwise comparison between criteria. To this end, the present study seeks to make a comparison between two new weight calculating techniques, namely BWM and FUCOM in a fuzzy environment using a real-world case study Results of this study shows that FUCOM-F provides more reliable results compared to FBWM since its consistency is less than FBWM by a great amount.

scholarly journals Safe-economical route model of a ship to avoid tropical cyclones using dynamic forecast environment

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (8) ◽  
pp. 4907-4945
Author(s):  
L. Wu ◽  
Y. Wen ◽  
D. Wu ◽  
J. Zhang ◽  
C. Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Capsizing Probability ◽  
Dynamic Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Errors

Abstract. In heavy sea conditions related to tropical cyclones (TCs), losses to shipping caused by capsizing are greater than other kinds of accidents. Therefore, it is important to consider capsizing risk in the algorithms used to generate safe-economic routes that avoid tropical cyclones (RATC). A safe-economic routing and assessment model for RATC, based on a dynamic forecasting environment, is presented in this paper. In the proposed model, a ship's risk is quantified using its capsizing probability caused by heavy wave conditions. Forecasting errors in the numerical models are considered in the ship risk assessment according to their distribution characteristics. A case study shows that: the economic cost of RATCs is associated not only to the ship's speed, but also to the acceptable capsizing probability which is related with the ship's characteristic and the cargo loading condition. Case study results demonstrate that the optimal routes obtained from the model proposed in this paper are superior to those produced by traditional methods.

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