Confidence in action: Differences between perceived accuracy of decision and motor response

Each of our decisions is associated with a degree of confidence. This confidence can change once we have acted because we might start doubting our choice or even become convinced that we have made a mistake. In this study, we explore the relations between action and our confidence that our decision was correct or erroneous. Fifty-four volunteers took part in a perceptual decision task in which their decisions could either lead to action or not. At the end of each trial, participants rated their confidence that their decision was correct, or they reported that they had made an error. The main results showed that when given after a response, confidence ratings were higher and more strongly related to decision accuracy, and post-response reports of errors more often indicated actual errors. The results support the view that error awareness and confidence might be partially based on postaction processing.

Real-Time Object Tracking via Adaptive Correlation Filters

Although correlation filter-based trackers (CFTs) have made great achievements on both robustness and accuracy, the performance of trackers can still be improved, because most of the existing trackers use either a sole filter template or fixed features fusion weight to represent a target. Herein, a real-time dual-template CFT for various challenge scenarios is proposed in this work. First, the color histograms, histogram of oriented gradient (HOG), and color naming (CN) features are extracted from the target image patch. Then, the dual-template is utilized based on the target response confidence. Meanwhile, in order to solve the various appearance variations in complicated challenge scenarios, the schemes of discriminative appearance model, multi-peaks target re-detection, and scale adaptive are integrated into the proposed tracker. Furthermore, the problem that the filter model may drift or even corrupt is solved by using high confidence template updating technique. In the experiment, 27 existing competitors, including 16 handcrafted features-based trackers (HFTs) and 11 deep features-based trackers (DFTs), are introduced for the comprehensive contrastive analysis on four benchmark databases. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed tracker performs favorably against state-of-the-art HFTs and is comparable with the DFTs.

Confidence in action: differences between perceived accuracy of decision and motor response

Each of our decisions is associated with a degree of confidence. This confidence can change once we have acted as we might start doubting our choice or even become convinced that we made a mistake. In this study, we explore the relations between action and our confidence that our decision was correct or erroneous. Fifty-six volunteers took part in a perceptual decision task in which their decisions could either lead to action or not. At the end of each trial, participants rated their confidence that their decision was correct, or they reported that they had made an error. The main results showed that when given after a response, confidence ratings were higher and more strongly related to decision accuracy, and post-response reports of errors more often indicated actual errors. The results support the view that error awareness and confidence might be partially based on post-action processing.

Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models

A two-stage simulation-based framework is proposed to derive Identification Robust confidence sets by applying Indirect Inference, in the context of Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) processes for finite samples. Resulting objective functions are treated as test statistics, which are inverted rather than optimized, via the Monte Carlo test method. Simulation studies illustrate accurate size and good power. Projected impulse-response confidence bands are simultaneous by construction and exhibit robustness to parameter identification problems. The persistence of shocks on oil prices and returns is analyzed via impulse-response confidence bands. Our findings support the usefulness of impulse-responses as an empirically relevant transformation of the confidence set.

Similar history biases for distinct prospective decisions of self-performance

Metacognition can be deployed retrospectively -to reflect on the correctness of our behavior- or prospectively -to make predictions of success in one’s future behavior or make decisions about strategies to solve future problems. We investigated the factors that determine prospective decision making. Human participants performed a visual discrimination task followed by ratings of visibility and response confidence. Prior to each trial, participants made prospective judgments. In Experiment 1, they rated their belief of future success. In Experiment 2, they rated their decision to adopt a focused attention state. Prospective beliefs of success were associated with no performance changes while prospective decisions to engage attention were followed by better self-evaluation of the correctness of behavioral responses. Using standard machine learning classifiers we found that the current prospective decision could be predicted from information concerning task-correctness, stimulus visibility and response confidence from previous trials. In both Experiments, awareness and confidence were more diagnostic of the prospective decision than task correctness. Notably, classifiers trained with prospective beliefs of success in Experiment 1 predicted decisions to engage in Experiment 2 and vice-versa. These results indicate that the formation of these seemingly different prospective decisions share a common, dynamic representational structure.

Pupillary dilations of mice performing a vibrotactile discrimination task reflect task engagement and response confidence

Pupillometry, the measure of pupil size and reactivity, has been widely used to assess cognitive processes. As such, changes in pupil size have been shown to correlate with arousal, locomotion, cortical state and decision-making processes. In addition, pupillary responses have been linked to the activity of neuromodulatory systems that modulate attention and perception as the noradrenergic and cholinergic systems. Due to the extent of processes reflected by the pupil, we aimed at resolving pupillary responses in context of behavioral state and task performance while recording pupillary transients of mice performing a vibrotactile two-alternative forced choice task (2-AFC). We show that pre-stimulus pupil size differentiates between states of disengagement from task performance versus active engagement. In addition, when actively engaged, post-stimulus, pupillary dilations for correct responses are larger than for error responses with this difference reflecting response confidence. Importantly, in a delayed 2-AFC task version, we show that even though pupillary transients mainly reflect motor output or reward anticipation following the response of the animal, they also reflect animal decision confidence prior to its response. Finally, in a condition of passive engagement, when stimulus has no task relevance with reward provided automatically, pupillary dilations reflect stimulation and reward being reduced relative to a state of active engagement explained by shifts of attention from task variables. Our results provide further evidence for how pupillary dilations reflect cognitive processes in a task relevant context, showing that the pupil reflects response confidence and baseline pupil size encodes attentiveness rather than general arousal.Significance StatementFor the last 60 years, pupillometry has been used to study various cognitive processes. Among which are mental load, arousal and various decision related components, linking pupil dilations to underlying neuromodulatory systems. Our results provide extensive evidence that in addition to reflecting attentiveness under task performance, pupil dilations also reflect the confidence of the subject in his ensuing response. This confidence coding is overlaid within a more pronounced pupil dilation that reflects motor output or other post-decision components such that are related to the response itself but not to the decision. Our results also provide evidence how different behavioral states, imposed by task demands, modulate what the pupil is reflecting, presumably showing what the underlying cognitive network is coding for.

Two case studies from a virtual reality intervention for delusions: feasibility and preliminary evidence

The use of virtual reality (VR) interventions for psychosis is on the rise. As information-processing biases such as overconfidence in memory are likely to be involved in the formation and maintenance of delusions, VR could also be used to correct cognitive distortions and in turn ameliorate delusions. The present study illustrates two case studies in which a VR intervention was employed to reduce delusions by means of correcting experiences. Participants navigated four virtual environments via a head-mounted display (HMD) and computer and were asked to recollect previously seen faces and objects and to rate their response confidence. The scenarios were created to elicit false memories. Immediately after each response, they received feedback to correct possible overconfidence in false memories. We present two case studies to illustrate individual differences. Both participants benefited from the intervention: delusions were reduced from pre- to post-assessment (after 3 weeks) as measured with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale and Psychotic Symptom Scale. This was corroborated by results on the Paranoia Checklist and the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences collected immediately after the session. Immediate effects also showed a reduction in delusion conviction rate. The present study provides preliminary evidence that delusions may be ameliorated by a VR paradigm designed to correct memory overconfidence. Cybersickness emerged as a problem in one of the patients.