scholarly journals Complexity Economics in a Time of Crisis: Heterogeneous Agents, Interconnections, and Contagion

Systems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Michael S. Harré ◽  
Aleksey Eremenko ◽  
Kirill Glavatskiy ◽  
Michael Hopmere ◽  
Leonardo Pinheiro ◽  
...  

In this article, we consider a variety of different mechanisms through which crises such as COVID-19 can propagate from the micro-economic behaviour of individual agents through to an economy’s aggregate dynamics and subsequently spill over into the global economy. Our central theme is one of changes in the behaviour of heterogeneous agents, agents who differ in terms of some measure of size, wealth, connectivity, or behaviour, in different parts of an economy. These are illustrated through a variety of case studies, from individuals and households with budgetary constraints, to financial markets, to companies composed of thousands of small projects, to companies that implement single multi-billion dollar projects. In each case, we emphasise the role of data or theoretical models and place them in the context of measuring their inter-connectivity and emergent dynamics. Some of these are simple models that need to be `dressed’ in socio-economic data to be used for policy-making, and we give an example of how to do this with housing markets, while others are more similar to archaeological evidence; they provide hints about the bigger picture but have yet to be unified with other results. The result is only an outline of what is possible but it shows that we are drawing closer to an integrated set of concepts, principles, and models. In the final section, we emphasise the potential as well as the limitations and what the future of these methods hold for economics.

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dr. Kamlesh Kumar Shukla

FIIs are companies registered outside India. In the past four years there has been more than $41 trillion worth of FII funds invested in India. This has been one of the major reasons on the bull market witnessing unprecedented growth with the BSE Sensex rising 221% in absolute terms in this span. The present downfall of the market too is influenced as these FIIs are taking out some of their invested money. Though there is a lot of value in this market and fundamentally there is a lot of upside in it. For long-term value investors, there’s little because for worry but short term traders are adversely getting affected by the role of FIIs are playing at the present. Investors should not panic and should remain invested in sectors where underlying earnings growth has little to do with financial markets or global economy.


FEDS Notes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2998) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carol Bertaut ◽  
◽  
Bastian von Beschwitz ◽  
Stephanie Curcuru ◽  
◽  
...  

For most of the last century, the preeminent role of the U.S. dollar in the global economy has been supported by the size and strength of the U.S. economy, its stability and openness to trade and capital flows, and strong property rights and the rule of law. As a result, the depth and liquidity of U.S. financial markets is unmatched, and there is a large supply of extremely safe dollar-denominated assets.


2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 2074-2088
Author(s):  
Vladimir K. BURLACHKOV

Subject. The article analyzes the competition of the world leading currencies in the global economy, specifics of the current stage, trends in the role of particular currencies in the global market. Objectives. The purpose is to review the current positions of the U.S. Dollar, Euro and Yuan in the global financial markets, assess prospects for maintaining the leading role of the U.S. Dollar, development trends in the position of Euro and Yuan. Methods. I applied the content analysis of available sources, provide a historical overview of issues under consideration, scrutinized the estimates of financial analysts. Results. The paper unveils reasons for increased competition of the leading currencies (U.S. Dollar, Euro, Yuan) in the global foreign exchange market, which include an increase in the scale of payment transactions in the global financial and commodity markets. It also reveals trends in the use of particular currencies in foreign trade and financial transactions, evaluates prospects for the use of specific world currencies in the global economy. Conclusions. At present, U.S. Dollar maintains its leading positions. However, in the future, an increase in the use of Euro- and Yuan-denominated transactions should be expected in the commodity and financial markets due to enlarged presence of Chinese companies in the global economy. Further development of European integration can ensure the expansion of the single European currency in the global financial market. The share of Yuan in foreign exchange reserves of central banks tends to increase. Private investors' demand for Yuan is also expected to grow.


2010 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Warwick J. McKibbin ◽  
Andrew Stoeckel

This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households, and international investors; and finds that the shocks observed in financial markets can generate in the in the G-Cubed model (an intertemporal global model) the severe economic contraction in global trade and production currently being experienced in 2009. Our investigation shows that the distinction between the production and trade of durable and non-durable goods plays a key role in explaining the much larger contraction in trade than GDP experienced by most economies; and that the future of the global economy depends critically on whether the shocks to risk are expected to be permanent or temporary.


2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Gail E. Farrelly

Financial reporting in global economy is the subject matter of this essay. The present system provides information that is objective past-oriented, technically precise, and quantitative. What is needed for worldwide information demands in financial markets, however, is a system which recognizes the importance of a qualitative dimension and leans toward relevance in the reliability-relevance tradeoff. Long-term profit projections and plans should be highlighted; professional judgment should take precedence over technical precision.


2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey H. Kahn ◽  
Daniel W. Cox ◽  
A. Myfanwy Bakker ◽  
Julia I. O’Loughlin ◽  
Agnieszka M. Kotlarczyk

Abstract. The benefits of talking with others about unpleasant emotions have been thoroughly investigated, but individual differences in distress disclosure tendencies have not been adequately integrated within theoretical models of emotion. The purpose of this laboratory research was to determine whether distress disclosure tendencies stem from differences in emotional reactivity or differences in emotion regulation. After completing measures of distress disclosure tendencies, social desirability, and positive and negative affect, 84 participants (74% women) were video recorded while viewing a sadness-inducing film clip. Participants completed post-film measures of affect and were then interviewed about their reactions to the film; these interviews were audio recorded for later coding and computerized text analysis. Distress disclosure tendencies were not predictive of the subjective experience of emotion, but they were positively related to facial expressions of sadness and happiness. Distress disclosure tendencies also predicted judges’ ratings of the verbal disclosure of emotion during the interview, but self-reported disclosure and use of positive and negative emotion words were not associated with distress disclosure tendencies. The authors present implications of this research for integrating individual differences in distress disclosure with models of emotion.


2013 ◽  
pp. 97-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Apokin

The author compares several quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecasting to find appropriate methods to incorporate technological change in long-range forecasts of the world economy. A?number of long-run forecasts (with horizons over 10 years) for the world economy and national economies is reviewed to outline advantages and drawbacks for different ways to account for technological change. Various approaches based on their sensitivity to data quality and robustness to model misspecifications are compared and recommendations are offered on the choice of appropriate technique in long-run forecasts of the world economy in the presence of technological change.


2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-144
Author(s):  
Dini Maulana Lestari ◽  
M Roif Muntaha ◽  
Immawan Azhar BA

Islamic banks are present in the community as financial institutions whose activities are based on the principles of Islamic law for the benefit of the people. This study aims to determine the strategic role of Islamic Banks as financial service institutions, the importance of the existence of Islamic Banks and Islamic-based markets and financial instruments in them. In its development, Islamic banks have a role as institutions that turn on public funds, channel funds to the public, transfer assets, liquidity, reallocation of income and transactions. In the Indonesian economic system, the existence of Islamic Banks is important as an alternative solution to the problem of conflict between bank interest and usury. Islamic financial markets and instruments provide a free society of interest and follow a different set of principles. Distribution of profit/ loss according to evidence of participation in the management fund. The division of rental income in the form of musharaka.


Author(s):  
Serhii Voitko ◽  
◽  
Yuliia Borodinova ◽  

The article examines the interaction of the national economy of Ukraine with international credit and financial organizations, evaluates the positive and negative consequences and identifies possible areas for further cooperation. The role of international credit and financial organizations in the development of the global economy is analyzed. Today, international financial institutions have taken a leading place among institutions that provide financial support and contribute to the implementation of necessary reforms aimed at developing enterprises in various sectors of the economy and strengthening the country's financial sector as a whole. The importance of cooperation between Ukraine and international financial institutions for the development of the country's economy has been determined. The problems and directions of development of cooperation with leading credit and financial organizations in modern conditions are identified. Despite the presence of certain shortcomings, cooperation between Ukraine and international credit and financial organizations will continue in the future.


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