Ensemble-Based Forecast of Volcanic Clouds Using FALL3D-8.1

Operational forecasting of volcanic ash and SO2 clouds is challenging due to the large uncertainties that typically exist on the eruption source term and the mass removal mechanisms occurring downwind. Current operational forecast systems build on single-run deterministic scenarios that do not account for model input uncertainties and their propagation in time during transport. An ensemble-based forecast strategy has been implemented in the FALL3D-8.1 atmospheric dispersal model to configure, execute, and post-process an arbitrary number of ensemble members in a parallel workflow. In addition to intra-member model domain decomposition, a set of inter-member communicators defines a higher level of code parallelism to enable future incorporation of model data assimilation cycles. Two types of standard products are automatically generated by the ensemble post-process task. On one hand, deterministic forecast products result from some combination of the ensemble members (e.g., ensemble mean, ensemble median, etc.) with an associated quantification of forecast uncertainty given by the ensemble spread. On the other hand, probabilistic products can also be built based on the percentage of members that verify a certain threshold condition. The novel aspect of FALL3D-8.1 is the automatisation of the ensemble-based workflow, including an eventual model validation. To this purpose, novel categorical forecast diagnostic metrics, originally defined in deterministic forecast contexts, are generalised here to probabilistic forecasts in order to have a unique set of skill scores valid to both deterministic and probabilistic forecast contexts. Ensemble-based deterministic and probabilistic approaches are compared using different types of observation datasets (satellite cloud detection and retrieval and deposit thickness observations) for the July 2018 Ambae eruption in the Vanuatu archipelago and the April 2015 Calbuco eruption in Chile. Both ensemble-based approaches outperform single-run simulations in all categorical metrics but no clear conclusion can be extracted on which is the best option between these two.

A saliency model-oriented convolution neural network for cloud detection in remote sensing images

Remote sensing is an indispensable technical way for monitoring earth resources and environmental changes. However, optical remote sensing images often contain a large number of cloud, especially in tropical rain forest areas, make it difficult to obtain completely cloud-free remote sensing images. Therefore, accurate cloud detection is of great research value for optical remote sensing applications. In this paper, we propose a saliency model-oriented convolution neural network for cloud detection in remote sensing images. Firstly, we adopt Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KCPA) to unsupervised pre-training the network. Secondly, small labeled samples are used to fine-tune the network structure. And, remote sensing images are performed with super-pixel approach before cloud detection to eliminate the irrelevant backgrounds and non-clouds object. Thirdly, the image blocks are input into the trained convolutional neural network (CNN) for cloud detection. Meanwhile, the segmented image will be recovered. Fourth, we fuse the detected result with the saliency map of raw image to further improve the accuracy of detection result. Experiments show that the proposed method can accurately detect cloud. Compared to other state-of-the-art cloud detection method, the new method has better robustness.

Cloud detection methods for a stand-alone ground based microwave radiometer

<p>The project “Pilotstation” at DWD employs a test bed setup to assess data availability, quality, observation impact and operational sustainability for five different ground based remote sensing instruments. The instruments in question, also referred to as “profilers”, are designed to continuously measure vertical profiles of thermodynamic and cloud/aerosol related variables.</p> <p>A ground based microwave radiometer (MWR) is one of the instruments evaluated in the project “Pilotstation”. MWR primarily measure downwelling radiation in the K-band and V-band in the form of brightness temperatures (TB). All-sky temperature and low-resolution humidity profiles as well as high-accuracy liquid water path (LWP, ΔLWP: ± 10-20 gm<sup>-2</sup>) and integrated water vapour (IWV, ΔIWV: ~ ± 0.5 kgm<sup>-2</sup>) are secondary products, which can be derived from the TB.</p> <p>The adaptation of the fast radiative transfer model RTTOV for ground based instruments enabled weather services to go forward with directly assimilating MWR TB rather than secondary products. First assimilation experiments of MWR TB at DWD were successful. Alongside other quality checks, the data assimilation (DA) relies on a cloud detection beforehand. The most frequent reason for rejecting data from DA is the suspected presence of clouds, consequently reliably identifying clouds without excessively rejecting clear-sky data is especially important for a high availability of suitable data.</p> <p>The study presented focuses on the requirements of operational DA and a stand-alone setup of an MWR. The work compares the performance of cloud detection algorithms used in scientific publications based on MWR observations. The comparisons include methods using TB, LWP and their variability. For this the CloudNet classification time series at Lindenberg and observation minus model background statistics serve as references. The presentation will also include progress made on refining the cloud detection schemes at hand in order to achieve a higher precision and to better meet the requirements of DA.</p>

The MOPITT Version 9 CO Product: Sampling Enhancements and Validation

Characteristics of the Version 9 (V9) MOPITT ("Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere") satellite retrieval product for tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) are described. The new V9 product includes many CO retrievals over land which, in previous MOPITT product versions, would have been discarded by the cloud detection algorithm. Globally, the number of daytime MOPITT retrievals over land has increased by 30–40 % relative to the Version 8 product, although the increase in retrieval coverage exhibits significant geographical variability. Areas benefiting from the improved cloud detection performance include (but are not limited to) source regions often characterized by high aerosol concentrations. The V9 MOPITT product also incorporates a modified calibration strategy for the MOPITT near-infrared (NIR) CO channels, resulting in greater temporal consistency for the NIR-only and thermal infrared-near infrared (TIR-NIR) retrieval variants. Validation results based on in-situ CO profiles acquired from aircraft in a variety of contexts indicate that retrieval biases for V9 are typically within the range of ±5 % and are generally comparable to results for the V8 product.

Low Cloud Detection in Multilayer Scenes using Satellite Imagery with Machine Learning Methods

The detection of multilayer clouds in the atmosphere can be particularly challenging from passive visible and infrared imaging radiometers since cloud boundary information is limited primarily to the topmost cloud layer. Yet detection of low clouds in the atmosphere is important for a number of applications, including aviation nowcasting and general weather forecasting. In this work, we develop pixel-based machine learning-based methods of detecting low clouds, with a focus on improving detection in multilayer cloud situations and specific attention given to improving the Cloud Cover Layers (CCL) product, which assigns cloudiness in a scene into vertical bins. The Random Forest (RF) and Neural Network (NN) implementations use inputs from a variety of sources, including GOES Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) visible radiances, infrared brightness temperatures, auxiliary information about the underlying surface, and relative humidity (which holds some utility as a cloud proxy). Training and independent validation enlists near-global, actively-sensed cloud boundaries from the radar and lidar systems onboard the CloudSat and CALIPSO satellites. We find that the RF and NN models have similar performances. The probability of detection (PoD) of low cloud increases from 0.685 to 0.815 when using the RF technique instead of the CCL methodology, while the false alarm ratio decreases. The improved PoD of low cloud is particularly notable for scenes that appear to be cirrus from an ABI perspective, increasing from 0.183 to 0.686. Various extensions of the model are discussed, including a nighttime-only algorithm and expansion to other satellite sensors.