Can we use anti-predator behavior theory to predict wildlife responses to high-speed vehicles?

Animals seem to rely on antipredator behavior to avoid vehicle collisions. There is an extensive body of antipredator behavior theory that have been used to predict the distance/time animals should escape from predators. These models have also been used to guide empirical research on escape behavior from vehicles. However, little is known as to whether antipredator behavior models are appropriate to apply to an approaching high-speed vehicle. We addressed this gap by (a) providing an overview of the main hypothesis and predictions of different antipredator behavior models via a literature review, (b) exploring whether these models can generate quantitative predictions on escape distance when parameterized with empirical data from the literature, and (c) evaluating their sensitivity to vehicle approach speed via a simulation approach where we assessed model performance based on changes in effect size with variations in the slope of the flight initiation distance (FID) vs. approach speed relationship. We used literature on birds for goals (b) and (c). We considered the following eight models: the economic escape model, Blumstein's economic escape model, the optimal escape model, the perceptual limit hypothesis, the visual cue model, the flush early and avoid the rush (FEAR) hypothesis, the looming stimulus hypothesis, and the Bayesian model of escape behavior. We were able to generate quantitative predictions about escape distances with the last five models. However, we were only able to assess sensitivity to vehicle approach speed for the last three models. The FEAR hypothesis is most sensitive to high-speed vehicles when the species follows the spatial (FID remains constant as speed increases) and the temporal margin of safety (FID increases with an increase in speed) rules of escape. The looming stimulus effect hypothesis reached small to intermediate levels of sensitivity to high-speed vehicles when a species follows the delayed margin of safety (FID decreases with an increase in speed). The Bayesian optimal escape model reached intermediate levels of sensitivity to approach speed across all escape rules (spatial, temporal, delayed margins of safety) but only for larger (> 1 kg) species, but was not sensitive to speed for smaller species. Overall, no single antipredator behavior model could characterize all different types of escape responses relative to vehicle approach speed but some models showed some levels of sensitivity for certain rules of escape. We derive some applied applications of our finding by suggesting the estimation of critical vehicle approach speeds for managing populations that are especially susceptible to road mortality. Overall, we recommend that new escape behavior models specifically tailored to high-speeds vehicles should be developed to better predict quantitatively the responses of animals to an increase in the frequency of cars, airplanes, drones, etc. they will be facing in the next decade.

Eurasian lynx populations in Western Europe: What prospects for the next 50 years?

Persistence of viable populations may be uncertain for large carnivore species, especially for those established in human-dominated landscapes. Here, we studied the Eurasian lynx in Western Europe established in the Upper Rhine metapopulation (i.e., Jura, Vosges-Palatinian and Black Forest populations) and in the Alpine population. These populations are currently considered as endangered or critically endangered due to high anthropogenic mortality and isolation. We assessed lynx persistence over a 50-year time horizon by implementing a spatially-explicit individual-based model while accounting for road mortality and habitat selection. For the Alpine and Jura populations, forecasts showed a steady growth rapidly reaching a stabilization phase with high resident female occupancy, and a positive growth for the newly re-established Vosges-Palatinian population. Moreover, this population showed a difference in female occupancy between the northern part, where a recent reintroduction program was conducted in the Palatinate Forest, and the southern part. Only the group of individuals in the Black Forest had an irregular growth probably due to the small number of only male lynx at start of the simulation and poor connectivity to surrounding populations. Exchanges of individuals between populations were limited, and the Jura population played the role of a crossroad. Persistence of lynx in Western Europe seems likely on a large scale over the next 50 years. However, lynx persistence in the southern part of the Vosges-Palatinian population and in the Black Forest appears challenging without long-term conservation management.

Landscape transformation and wildlife: road mortality in Rawa Aopa Watumohai National Park, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia

The development of high way that crosses wildlife habitat will inevitably cause wildlife casualties. The purpose of this study was to identify wildlife road mortality in Rawa Aopa Watumohai National Park, Southeast Sulawesi (mostly consisted of savanna). Road kill data was collected by driving along the 22.4 km highway in February and March 2020 (n=28). Traffic volumes were recorded by taking traffic samples in 5 different times of the day, an hour duration each (totaling 70 h). There were 37 species being killed (totaling 529 individuals, of which 49.3% happened along km 0-10), consisted of 19 bird species, 3 small mammal species, 10 reptile species, and 5 amphibian species. Based on taxa, the highest number of road mortality was amphibians (dominated by Ingerophrynus biporcatus), followed by birds (mostly Lonchura malacca), mammals (dominated by Rattus argentiventer), and reptiles (dominated by Varanus salvator). Among mammals, no big mammal (booted macaque Macaca ochreata, wild boar Sus scrofa) was killed. Landscape transformation clearly has impacted wildlife in the study area. To reduce the occurrence of road kills, it is recommended to create corridors for wildlife crossings, limiting vehicle speed in the hot spots locations, create speed bumps, as well as adding more signage and road signs along the highway.

The System Dynamic and Compram Methodologies for Modelling, Simulation and Forecasting of Road Safety of Uzbekistan

In Uzbekistan, about 2,000 people die every year as a result of a traffic accident. At the same time, according to the Pulitzer Centre on Crisis Reporting, the Republic has the lowest rate in road mortality among the countries in the Central Asian region - for every 100,000 people, it is 11.32 people. Losses from road accidents in Uzbekistan equivalent up to 2.8% of GDP that is also one of the lowest indicators. But according to traffic safety experts, the losses from accidents are greater than reported data. Nowadays there are a lot of methods to analyse and ensure road safety and traffic management on the roads. The authors believe that road safety is a complex societal problem not only in Uzbekistan but all over the world. One of these methods is System Dynamic (SD) and COMplex PRoblem hAndling Methodology (COMPRAM). In this work, the Vensim PLE SD software tool (it is one SD tool amongst many others) has been used to perform the SD modelling of the case study at hand. In the methods of system dynamics, a computer model is created using a graphical technique for constructing flow diagrams and causal relationships of the system under study and then simulated on a computer. COMPRAM allows us to figure out the way to handle complex societal problems while involving a System Dynamics (SD) simulation option. There are similarities between COMPRAM and the traditional way of analysing road safety. In traditional ways, each element or factor is studied as a separate phenomenon. These indicators are studied in the stages of COMPRAM. This article has been studied a different aspect of how road accidents happen. The developed a comparison (according to six criteria) of the different modelling paradigms which have been historically used to assess road safety. Also, the authors made a comparison of the COMPRAM methodology with the traditional road safety assessment approach to highlight similarities and differences.

Repeated use of high risk nesting areas in the European whip snake, Hierophis viridiflavus

Oviparous snakes deposit their egg clutches in sites sheltered from predation and from strong thermal and hydric fluctuations. Appropriate laying sites with optimum thermal and hydric conditions are generally scarce and are not necessarily localised in the home range. Thus, many gravid females undertake extensive trips for oviposition, and many may converge at the best egg laying sites. Dispersal mortality of neonates post-hatchling is also a critical factor. Assessing the parameters involved in this intergenerational trade-off is difficult however, and no study has succeeded in embracing all of them. Here we report data indicating that gravid females of the highly mobile European whip snake, Hierophis viridiflavus exhibit nest site fidelity whereby they repeatedly deposit their eggs in cavities under sealed roads over many decades. These anthropogenic structures provide benefits of relative safety and suitable incubation conditions (due to the protective asphalted layer?), but they expose both females and neonates to high risk of road mortality. Artificial laying sites constructed at appropriate distances from busy roads, along with artificial continuous well protected pathways (e.g. dense hedges) that connect risky laying sites to safer areas, should be constructed.