Equity Short Selling and the Cost of Debt

Empirical evidence suggests that short sales have pertinent information about firm fundamentals. If so, then information from short selling in liquid equity markets can be informative for infrequently traded corporate bonds. The adverse information conveyed by short interest should mean higher cost of debt. Using a large sample of corporate bonds, we examine whether lagged equity short interest affects credit spreads. Highly shorted firms do experience wider credit spreads in the subsequent months. Moreover, the increase in short interest leads to higher credit spreads. Short interest thus seems to contain adverse information about firm fundamentals that can prove useful to bond investors.

Informed short selling: evidence from economically linked firms

PurposeThis paper examines how sophisticated and better-informed investors, such as short sellers, trade on information along the supply chain. Given the economic linkages between suppliers and customers, one would expect short sellers to trade on such information and to capitalize on investors' inattention to such economic links.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses both multivariate regression analysis and portfolio analysis where the time series averages of equally weighted monthly portfolio returns are reported to explore the abnormal returns of long-short trading strategies.FindingsResults indicate that short interest predicts unexpected earnings news, consistent with short sellers extracting information from economic relationships. There is a strong negative relationship between short interest in the supplier firm and the one-month future stock return of the customer firm. This negative relation significantly persists for at least 12 months. One plausible channel explaining the information content of supplier (customer) firm's short interest for the customer (supplier) firms is the short sale constraints on the customer (supplier) firms.Originality/valueThe paper addresses a gap in the literature by examining whether short selling in a firm in the months leading up to a customer's (supplier's) negative shock is negatively correlated to the customer's (supplier's) future performance. Overall, the findings suggest that short sellers play an important role in the price discovery of related firms in the supply chain, which is beyond the direct effects documented in prior literature.

Innovation and Informed Trading: Evidence from Industry ETFs

We empirically examine the impact of industry exchange-traded funds (IETFs) on informed trading and market efficiency. We find that IETF short interest spikes simultaneously with hedge fund holdings on the member stock before positive earnings surprises, reflecting long-the-stock/short-the-ETF activity. This pattern is stronger among stocks with high industry risk exposure. A difference-in-difference analysis on the ETF inception event shows that IETFs reduce post-earnings-announcement drift more among stocks with high industry risk exposure, suggesting that IETFs improve market efficiency. We also find that the short interest ratio of IETFs positively predicts IETF returns, consistent with the hedging role of IETFs.

Short selling and dark pool volume

PurposePrior research posits that traders with short-lived information favor lit exchanges over dark pools due to execution certainty. This paper aims to focus on the relation between informed trading based on firm fundamentals and dark pool volume because the preferred venue for traders with longer-lived information is less certain.Design/methodology/approachThe authors examine the effect of short interest, a proxy for informed traders with long-lived information, on dark pool volume using fixed effects, first difference and instrumental variable approaches. They examine the effect of dark pools on the profitability of long-lived information using market- and characteristic-adjusted returns.FindingsThe proportion of trading volume executed in dark pools is positively correlated with short interest. This result is stronger for stocks that suffer from greater uncertainty and stocks targeted by transient institutional investors. Short sellers profit substantially from their information as subsequent returns are lower for heavily shorted stocks with greater dark pool volume.Research limitations/implicationsIn 2014, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority began making trading data available for dark pools. Before that, only limited information was publicly available. The authors use that data to shed more light on dark pools activity.Practical implicationsThe evidence presented in the paper helps inform the current discussion about the role and regulation of dark pools.Originality/valueThis is the first study to show that informed traders with long-lived information favor dark pools due to their opacity and the possibility of price improvement.

Pricing Catastrophe Equity Put Options in a Mixed Fractional Brownian Motion Environment

This paper considers the pricing of the CatEPut option (catastrophe equity put option) in a mixed fractional model in which the stock price is governed by a mixed fractional Brownian motion (mfBM model), which manifests long-range correlation and fluctuations from the financial market. Using the conditional expectation and the change of measure technique, we obtain an analytical pricing formula for the CatEPut option when the short interest rate is a deterministic and time-dependent function. Furthermore, we also derive analytical pricing formulas for the catastrophe put option and the influence of the Hurst index when the short interest rate follows an extended Vasicek model governed by another mixed fractional Brownian motion so that the environment captures the long-range dependence of the short interest rate. Based on the numerical experiments, we analyze quantitatively the impacts of different parameters from the mfBM model on the option price and hedging parameters. Numerical results show that the mfBM model is more close to the realistic market environment, and the CatEPut option price is evaluated accurately.

Publicizing Arbitrage

How does greater public disclosure of arbitrage activity and informed trading affect price efficiency? To answer this, we exploit rule amendments in U.S. securities markets, which impose a higher frequency of public disclosure of short positions. Higher public disclosure can hurt the production of information and deteriorate efficiency, or it can be beneficial by mitigating the limits to arbitrage and diffusing arbitrageurs’ information faster. With more frequent disclosure, information encapsulated within short interest is incorporated into prices faster, improving price efficiency. We find important reductions in short sellers’ horizon risk and increases in short sales with the rule amendments.