Abstract
The recorded number of epidemics from emerging diseases is increasing at alarming rates, posing new threats on human societies. Despite the consensus on the existence of a nexus between emerging diseases and human pressure on the environment, the link to global and regional trends in food demand and agricultural production remains poorly understood. The ongoing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic (COVID-19) is no difference. SARS-related coronaviruses are mostly discovered in Asian horseshoe bat species. It is unclear to what extent the transmission to humans is facilitated by ongoing land use and animal husbandry trends underlying recent shifts in the food system. Forest fragmentation, human encroachment into wildlife habitats as a result of expanding urbanization, cropland, and concentrated animal farming are hypothesized to favor the emergence of zoonotic diseases. In the regions of the world populated by Asian horseshoe bats (>28.5 million km2), we analyze comprehensive high-resolution (30m-1000m) datasets on forest cover, cropland distribution, livestock density, human population, human settlements, bat species’ distribution, and land-use changes to explain why China was and remains at risk for SARS-coronavirus outbreaks. We show that in China areas populated by horseshoe bats exhibit statistically significant higher forest fragmentation and concentrations of livestock (e.g. poultry and pigs) and humans than other countries. Moreover, regions of China populated by horseshoe bats are hotspots of forest fragmentation, livestock density, and human settlements. These results are consistent with the notion that population growth and increasing meat consumption associated with urbanization and economic growth have expanded the footprint of agriculture, leading to human encroachment in wildlife habitat and increased livestock density in areas adjacent to fragmented forest patches. These results indicate that conditions in China put it at high risk for SARS-related coronavirus transmission to humans because land use patterns reduce the distance between wildlife reservoir species and humans.