HOUSE PRICES, RENTAL COSTS, AND MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES

Studies have typically adopted the price-rent ratio to determine whether housing exuberance exists and the periods of imbalance between house prices and rental costs. Using the price-rent ratio to conduct tests without considering the effects of mortgage interest rates on user costs may overestimate episodes of exuberance. This study uses data of the overall housing market and those of 10 major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States from 1979Q1 to 2018Q1 to evaluate whether housing exuberance exists in the markets; the results indicate that all the MSAs experienced episodes of exuberance at different times and the overall housing U.S. market was overheated from 1998Q2 to 2007Q3. By considering mortgage rates and using the user-cost-rent ratio, we further determine that short-term housing exuberance emerged in only two MSAs, Los Angeles and Miami, in 2006Q2, which was followed by immediate corrections. Thus, the research results of this study signify that only use the price-rent ratio to determine whether or not rational housing tenure choice made by traders exists is not sufficient. This study provides evidence showing that the method incorporating mortgage interest rates tends to obtain an equilibrium relationship between the rental and housing markets, indicating interest rates play an important role in housing tenure choice.

The Effect of Household Debt and Wealth on Subsequent Housing Tenure Choice

The purchase of a home is the largest investment made by most American families, and home equity is the largest component of family wealth. Scholars have long documented the social and economic merits of homeownership and explored the factors that influence access to it. However, despite the abundance of literature on homeownership and housing tenure choice, we lack a study that focuses on whether and how debt and wealth influence a household’s decision to own or rent a home. Using 2004 and 2008 panel data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), this study attempts to identify the causal effect of household debt and wealth on a household’s decision to change tenure choice by examining what factors influence transition from homeowner to renter or from renter to homeowner. Data analysis shows that household secured debt, household wealth, and household income play a significant role in household’s change in tenure choice. While race is not a significant factor influencing the likelihood of a homeowner transitioning to a renter, it was a significant factor for a renter transitioning to a homeowner. Minority renters are significantly less likely to become homeowners compared with white renters, even when controlling for wealth and debt.

Housing Tenure Choice and Housing Affordability in Nigeria: A Comparative Analysis of Owners and Renters of Organized Private Sector Housing

Housing tenure choice is one key decision that a household must make. This decision has been established to have direct implications for household housing affordability. This research assessed and compared the housing affordability of owners and renters of organized Private Sector Housing delivery in Nigeria. Data were collected from eleven (11) states and the Federal Capital Territory across the six (6) geo-political zones of Nigeria. A cross-sectional survey design was adopted with multi-stage sampling technique employed to select estates residents for interview. Structured questionnaire were administered on 10% (1,950) heads of households randomly selected from all the occupied houses. The study revealed that 48% of the residents were owners and 52% renters. It was discovered that more owners than renters are under severe housing affordability stress/burden. While 29% of owners enjoy “normal housing affordability” (housing expenditure of 1% - 30%), 41% of renters enjoyed such. Also, while 36% of owners enjoyed “tolerable housing affordability” (30.1% - 50% housing expenditure), 41% of the renters fall within that range. Furthermore, while 35% of owners are theoretically under severe housing affordability stress/burden (with >50% housing expenditure), only 18% of the renters are. The study confirmed that renters enjoyed better housing affordability than the owners. Major policy implications include the need for housing policy and delivery in Nigeria to recognize and facilitate rental housing while steps should be taken to relieve the burden of home ownership by working on mortgage penetration, cost of building materials and other incidental expenses of ownership so as to enhance housing affordability of Nigerians.

Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession

Using a quantitative heterogeneous agents macro-housing model and detailed microdata, this paper studies the drivers of the 2006–2011 housing bust, its spillovers to consumption and the credit market, and the ability of mortgage rate interventions to accelerate the recovery. The model features tenure choice between owning and renting, rich portfolio choice, long-term defaultable mortgages, and endogenously illiquid housing from search frictions. The equilibrium analysis and empirical evidence suggest that the deterioration in house prices and liquidity, transmitted to consumption via balance sheets that vary in composition and depth, is central to explaining the observed aggregate and cross-sectional patterns. (JEL E23, E32, E44, G21, R31)

¿Incide la forma de tenencia de la vivienda habitual sobre la situación de empleo en España?

The objective of this study is to provide more empirical evidence on the possible existence in Spain of causal relationships between housing tenure choice (ownership/rental) and the employment status of household head (employed/unemployed), separating this effect from the one generated by other covariates and unobservables which might affect, as well as from the reverse causal effect that might exist. With this aim, based on micro data from the Survey of Living Conditions for 2010 and the approach of the literature of treatment effects, we estimate switching probit models that relate these variables at the microeconomic level. The results obtained allow us to assert that owning the main residence, whether it is mortgaged or not, increases the probability of employment around 10%.