Effectiveness of forbearance measures for Russian commercial banks in the current crisis

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, real GDP of Russia is expected to fall by 4-6%. The banking industry provides liquidity to Russian business in times of hardship. On the one hand, the Bank of Russia facilitates lending opportunities for the business and subsidizes the mortgage interest rate for banks and the public in order to prevent business bankruptcies. And on the other hand, it provides liquidity to banks via REPO (repurchase agreement) auctions. Currently, there is not enough demand for REPO transactions from banks, but it might increase after other measures of support begin to be canceled. The article studies the effectiveness of current forbearance measures for Russian banks and provides an insight into the future development of the banking industry after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mortgage volume and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from Turkey

This paper investigates the impacts of several macroeconomic variables on Turkey's volume of mortgage loans. Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model, Granger causality tests, variance decomposition, and impulse-response analysis is employed for the econometric analysis to show short and long-run relationships between the variables using time series monthly data from January 2010 to March 2020. Paper results demonstrate that growth of housing credit size negatively correlates with mortgage interest rates, US Dollar/Turkish Lira exchange rate and level of real estate supply. At the same time, there is a positive correlation with house prices. Causal relationships between mortgage volume and macroeconomic indicators are bidirectional for all variables, except for mortgage interest rates. There is a one-way causality relationship from mortgage rates to mortgage loan volume. Econometric analyses show that the recent steep depreciation in the Turkish Lira hurts the Turkish mortgage market. In conclusion, a stable economic environment is essential to build a robust mortgage market.

Prosperity or Real Estate Bubble? Exuberance Probability Index of Real Housing Prices in Chile

In this paper, we approached the concept of real estate bubble, analyzing the risk its bursting could generate for the Chilean financial market. Specifically, we analyzed the relationship between real housing prices, the economic activity index, and mortgage interest rates denominated in inflation-linked units from 1994 to 2020. The analysis was based on a second order Markov switching model with the predetermined variables mentioned later, whose parameters were obtained through the expectation–maximization algorithm. Then, we built a probability index as early warning indicator for potential imbalances in the real estate price that could put financial market stability at risk. The indicator is important to evaluate economic policy calibrations in time. A main finding was that the real housing price had a non-linear relationship with economic activity and the mortgage interest rate. Therefore, the evolution of the real estate price has been consistent with fundamental macroeconomic variables, even under a high growth regime, with increases above 12% per year. About 92% of housing price variability derived from changing macrofinancial conditions, suggesting a low margin of speculative behavior.

Policy-Driven Boom and Bust in the Housing Market: Evidence from Mongolia

This paper examines the effects of a mortgage interest rate subsidy on booms and busts in the housing market by analyzing the Housing Mortgage program in Mongolia. We find that the most recent housing boom in Mongolia occurred from the second quarter (Q2) of 2012 to first quarter (Q1) of 2014, and that the subsequent housing bust lasted 4 years. Both house-specific factors and macroeconomic variables had a significant influence on housing price dynamics. Mortgage interest rate semielasticity and real household income elasticity were estimated as −3 and 1.4, respectively. Dynamic analysis of the estimated vector error correction models suggests that the country’s policy intervention in the mortgage market—introducing an interest rate subsidy on mortgage loans for residential properties of up to 80 square meters—drove the recent housing boom in Mongolia.

DETERMINANTS OF HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY: EVIDENCE FROM SELECTED EU COUNTRIES

Household debt has been increasing in the last decades, and it poses a threat not only to the financial stability of households but is a precursor of the economic and financial crisis. A downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic is expected to deepening inequalities, mainly due to the inability of households to repay existing debts or finance basic living needs. Understanding the determinants of household indebtedness and financial vulnerability is crucial for policymakers who process measures to prevent increasing household indebtedness. This paper investigates the determinants of household financial vulnerability in euro area countries using the Household Finance and Consumption Survey micro-dataset collected by the European Central Bank. The quantitative approach was applied using ordinary least square and quantile estimation procedures. The difference between OLS and quantile estimations showed the appropriateness of using the quantile regression approach. Performance analysis proved that only the number of elderly and the value of wealth and existence of mortgage interest tax relief statistically significant affects the level of vulnerability in all three waves. While the increasing number of elderly and greater value of household wealth lowers the vulnerability, the effect of mortgage interest tax relief differs across individual waves. All other used factors are essential and statistically significant for the financial vulnerability of households as well, but the importance and significance could differ across the distribution and individual waves. The effect of financial assets, education, and employment were found to be negative in all observations of all waves. On the other hand, the number of children and the value of households’ real assets is associated with increased financial vulnerability indicators.

Implications of a Mortgage Interest Credit for the United States

The US mortgage interest deduction (MID) allows homeowners to deduct the interest paid on their mortgages from their federal tax returns, provided that they itemize deductions. Since the benefit depends on a taxpayer’s marginal tax rate, which increases with income, the MID is an “upside-down subsidy” that becomes more valuable for higher-income homeowners. I analyze the implications of converting the US MID to a mortgage interest credit (MIC) and evaluate the effects on federal revenue and the distribution of income. I argue that a MIC could be better targeted at low- and middle-income taxpayers on the margin of homeownership while also being more progressive and less expensive than the current MID.

HOUSE PRICES, RENTAL COSTS, AND MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES

Studies have typically adopted the price-rent ratio to determine whether housing exuberance exists and the periods of imbalance between house prices and rental costs. Using the price-rent ratio to conduct tests without considering the effects of mortgage interest rates on user costs may overestimate episodes of exuberance. This study uses data of the overall housing market and those of 10 major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States from 1979Q1 to 2018Q1 to evaluate whether housing exuberance exists in the markets; the results indicate that all the MSAs experienced episodes of exuberance at different times and the overall housing U.S. market was overheated from 1998Q2 to 2007Q3. By considering mortgage rates and using the user-cost-rent ratio, we further determine that short-term housing exuberance emerged in only two MSAs, Los Angeles and Miami, in 2006Q2, which was followed by immediate corrections. Thus, the research results of this study signify that only use the price-rent ratio to determine whether or not rational housing tenure choice made by traders exists is not sufficient. This study provides evidence showing that the method incorporating mortgage interest rates tends to obtain an equilibrium relationship between the rental and housing markets, indicating interest rates play an important role in housing tenure choice.

Do People Respond to the Mortgage Interest Deduction? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Denmark

Using a major reform that scaled back the mortgage interest deduction for middle- and high-income households in Denmark, we study how tax subsidies affect housing decisions. We present four main findings. First, the mortgage deduction has a precisely estimated zero effect on homeownership for high- and middle-income households. Second, the mortgage deduction has a clear effect on housing demand at the intensive margin, inducing homeowners to buy larger and more expensive houses. Third, the deduction has sizeable effects on household financial decisions, inducing them to increase indebtedness. Finally, the reduction of the tax subsidy lowered equilibrium house prices. (JEL G21, G51, H24, K34, R21, R31)

Housing Price, Mortgage Interest Rate and Immigration

Housing price in New Zealand has appreciated substantially after the Global Financial Crisis, resulting in an affordability problem for first home buyers. This paper studies whether changes in immigration activity and mortgage interest rate influence housing price. Empirical findings derived using VECM confirm the impact of immigration and mortgage interest rate on housing property price. Both variables explain 11.4 percent of the variation of Housing Index. An increase of 1 percent in mortgage interest rate would reduce the housing index movement by 1.44 percent whilst a 1 percent increase in immigrants would increase the housing index by 0.30 percent. In addition, about 2 percent of the short-run deviations of housing prices are adjusted towards the long-run equilibrium each month.