Forecasting Facing Economic Shifts, Climate Change and Evolving Pandemics

By its emissions of greenhouse gases, economic activity is the source of climate change which affects pandemics that in turn can impact badly on economies. Across the three highly interacting disciplines in our title, time-series observations are measured at vastly different data frequencies: very low frequency at 1000-year intervals for paleoclimate, through annual, monthly to intra-daily for current climate; weekly and daily for pandemic data; annual, quarterly and monthly for economic data, and seconds or nano-seconds in finance. Nevertheless, there are important commonalities to economic, climate and pandemic time series. First, time series in all three disciplines are subject to non-stationarities from evolving stochastic trends and sudden distributional shifts, as well as data revisions and changes to data measurement systems. Next, all three have imperfect and incomplete knowledge of their data generating processes from changing human behaviour, so must search for reasonable empirical modeling approximations. Finally, all three need forecasts of likely future outcomes to plan and adapt as events unfold, albeit again over very different horizons. We consider how these features shape the formulation and selection of forecasting models to tackle their common data features yet distinct problems.

How is the distribution of psychological distress changing over time? Who is driving these changes? Analysis of the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts

Aims The main objective of this study was to investigate distributional shifts underlying observed age and cohort differences in mean levels of psychological distress in the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts. Methods This study used data from the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts (n = 24,707). Psychological distress was measured by the Malaise Inventory at ages 23, 33, 42 and 50 in the 1958 cohort and 26, 34, 42 and 46–48 in the 1970 cohort. Results The shifts in the distribution across age appear to be mainly due to changing proportion of those with moderate symptoms, except for midlife (age 42–50) when we observed polarisation in distress— an increase in proportions of people with no symptoms and multiple symptoms. The elevated levels of distress in the 1970 cohort, compared with the 1958 cohort, appeared to be due to an increase in the proportion of individuals with both moderate and high symptoms. For instance, at age 33/34 42.3% endorsed at least two symptoms in the 1970 cohort vs 24.7% in 1958, resulting in a shift in the entire distribution of distress towards the more severe end of the spectrum. Conclusions Our study demonstrates the importance of studying not only mean levels of distress over time, but also the underlying shifts in its distribution. Due to the large dispersion of distress scores at any given measurement occasion, understanding the underlying distribution provides a more complete picture of population trends.

Overfishing and Climate Change Elevate Extinction Risk of Endemic Sharks and Rays in the Southwest Indian Ocean Hotspot

The southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) is a hotspot of endemic and evolutionarily distinct sharks and rays. We summarise the extinction risk of the sharks and rays endemic to coastal, shelf, and slope waters of the SWIO (Namibia to Kenya, including SWIO islands). Thirteen of 70 species (19%) are threatened: one is Critically Endangered, five are Endangered, and seven are Vulnerable. A further seven (10%) are Near Threatened, 33 (47.1%) are Least Concern, and 17 (24.2%) are Data Deficient. While the primary threat is overfishing, there are the first signs that climate change is contributing to elevated extinction risk through habitat reduction and inshore distributional shifts. By backcasting their status, few species were threatened in 1980, but this changed soon after the emergence of targeted shark and ray fisheries. South Africa has the highest national conservation responsibility, followed by Mozambique and Madagascar. Yet, while fisheries management and enforcement have improved in South Africa over recent decades, drastic improvements are urgently needed elsewhere. To avoid extinction and ensure robust populations and future food security, there is an urgent need for the strict protection of Critically Endangered and Endangered species and sustainable management of all species, underpinned by species-level data collection and bycatch reduction.

Trait-mediated shifts and climate velocity decouple an endothermic marine predator and its ectothermic prey

Climate change is redistributing biodiversity globally and distributional shifts have been found to follow local climate velocities. It is largely assumed that marine endotherms such as cetaceans might shift more slowly than ectotherms in response to warming and would primarily follow changes in prey, but distributional shifts in cetaceans are difficult to quantify. Here we use data from fisheries bycatch and strandings to examine changes in the distribution of long-finned pilot whales (Globicephala melas), and assess shifts in pilot whales and their prey relative to climate velocity in a rapidly warming region of the Northwest Atlantic. We found a poleward shift in pilot whale distribution that exceeded climate velocity and occurred at more than three times the rate of fish and invertebrate prey species. Fish and invertebrates shifted at rates equal to or slower than expected based on climate velocity, with more slowly shifting species moving to deeper waters. We suggest that traits such as mobility, diet specialization, and thermoregulatory strategy are central to understanding and anticipating range shifts. Our findings highlight the potential for trait-mediated climate shifts to decouple relationships between endothermic cetaceans and their ectothermic prey, which has important implications for marine food web dynamics and ecosystem stability.

Common Eider Wintering Trends in Nova Scotia, 1970–2019

Common eiders Somateria mollissima have been a focus of conservation and management efforts in eastern North American for over a century; however, the complex population structure and multiple subspecies make assessing the status of populations challenging. The coastlines of Nova Scotia, Canada, are an important wintering area for common eiders, and significant harvests of common eiders occur in the province. We analyzed trends in the number of wintering common eiders using the coasts of Nova Scotia from dedicated waterfowl surveys flown since 1970, and every year since 1992. We used Generalized Additive Models to assess the apparent non-linear trends in the counts of common eiders over the past 50 y. We found that numbers of common eiders wintering in Nova Scotia increased from 1970 to the early 2010s, with strong growth in the 2000s (peaking at 7% growth/y). Since the early 2010s, the growth has stopped, and the numbers are now declining. Recent declines in the population wintering in Nova Scotia corroborate other evidence that common eiders are declining in the region, and may also indicate distributional shifts of common eiders in eastern North America.

How is the distribution of psychological distress changing over time? Who is driving these changes? Analysis of the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts.

Aims Despite the large variance in distress, most research investigating lifecourse development and cross-cohort trends have focused on its mean levels at the population level. The main objective of this study is to investigate distributional shifts underlying observed age and cohort differences in mean levels of psychological distress in the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts. Further, we examine whether observed distributional shifts are driven by specific socio-demographic subgroups, according to gender, parental social class at birth, and highest achieved qualification by age 30/33. Finally, we compare cohort and age differences in the distribution of individual symptoms of psychological distress. Methods This study used data from the 1958 National Child Development Study and 1970 British birth cohort. Our analytical sample (n=24,707) included those who had at least one measure of distress, were still alive and were not permanent emigrants from Britain by age 50 in the 1958 birth cohort (n=13,250) and by age 46-48 in the 1970 birth cohort (n=11,457). Psychological distress was measured by the Malaise Inventory at ages 23, 33, 42 and 50 in the 1958 cohort and 26, 34, 42 and 46-48 in the 1970 cohort. Results The shifts in the distribution across age appear to be mainly due to changing proportion of those with moderate symptoms, except for midlife (age 42-50) when we observed polarisation in distress, with increased proportions of people with no or multiple symptoms. The elevated levels of distress in the 1970 cohort, compared with the 1958 cohort, appeared to be due to an increase in the proportion of individuals with both moderate and high symptoms. For instance, at age 33/34 34.2% experienced no symptoms in 1970 compared with 54.0% in the 1958 cohort, whereas 42.3% endorsed at least two symptoms in the 1970 cohort vs 24.7% in 1958. These observed shifts were driven to some extent by a larger proportion of men and individuals with high qualification in the moderate and high distress groups in the more recent cohort. Fatigue, nervousness, and tension were particularly prevalent in this life phase and all examined symptoms were more prevalent in the younger cohort. Conclusions Our study demonstrates the importance of studying not only mean levels of distress over time, but also the underlying shifts in its distribution. Due to the large dispersion of distress scores at any given measurement occasion, understanding the underlying distribution provides a more complete picture of population trends.

Improvements in reports of species redistribution under climate change are required

Studies have documented climate change–induced shifts in species distributions but uncertainties associated with data and methods are typically unexplored. We reviewed 240 reports of climate-related species-range shifts and classified them based on three criteria. We ask whether observed distributional shifts are compared against random expectations, whether multicausal factors are examined on equal footing, and whether studies provide sufficient documentation to enable replication. We found that only ~12.1% of studies compare distributional shifts across multiple directions, ~1.6% distinguish observed patterns from random expectations, and ~19.66% examine multicausal factors. Last, ~75.5% of studies report sufficient data and results to allow replication. We show that despite gradual improvements over time, there is scope for raising standards in data and methods within reports of climate-change induced shifts in species distribution. Accurate reporting is important because policy responses depend on them. Flawed assessments can fuel criticism and divert scarce resources for biodiversity to competing priorities.