Disruptive Innovations for Well-Functioning Food Systems: The Data-Driven “Food and Nutrition Security Under Climate Evolution” Framework

The current climate crisis poses new uncertainties, risks, and vulnerabilities, and is leading to losses for millions of people depending on fragile food systems. Food systems are, however, vastly different across landscapes and communities, and their capacities to respond to climate impacts evolves and changes through time. Humanitarian and development organizations are struggling to keep pace with these changes. Monitoring a large number of diverse food systems during an evolving climate crisis can be expensive and time-consuming. This paper introduces a monitoring approach that uses a combination of open-source earth observations along with national data sources to produce highly contextualized metrics for monitoring Food And Nutrition Security under Climate Evolution (FANSCE). Entirely data-driven, the FANSCE approach has been designed to produce policy recommendations to help monitor, assess, and mitigate climatic impacts on food systems. We developed and tested this approach in Vietnam, where climate variability has become a growing threat to food systems. Our results show that predictors of food and nutrition security differ drastically with the intensity of climate variability. More specifically, our analyses suggest that in areas of high climate variability, levels of food and nutrition security can be significantly predicted based on economic activities, ethnicity, education, health of mothers, and the level of readiness and preparedness to climate impacts of villages and communities. On the other hand, in areas of low climate variability, food and nutrition security are mostly predictable based on the ability of households to access essential services (such as education, health) and communal resources (water, storage, etc.). To support the resilience of food systems, policymakers must regularly monitor how these dimensions react to the changing climate. Addition critical actions to increase food system sustainability in Vietnam include 1) enhanced coordination of institutional responses and capacities across governmental and non-governmental agencies, and 2) better integration of scientific knowledge into national and sub-national decision-making processes.

Assessing uncertainty in past ice and climate evolution: overview, stepping-stones, and challenges

In the geosciences, complex computational models have become a common tool for making statements about past earth system evolution. However, the relationship between model output and the actual earth system (or component thereof) is generally poorly specified and even more poorly assessed. This is especially challenging for the paleo sciences for which data constraints are sparse and have large uncertainties. Bayesian inference offers a self-consistent and rigorous framework for assessing this relationship as well as a coherent approach to combining data constraints with computational modelling. Though “Bayesian” is becoming more common in paleoclimate and paleo ice sheet publications, our impression is that most scientists in these fields have little understanding of what this actually means nor are they able to evaluate the quality of such inference. This is especially unfortunate given the correspondence between Bayesian inference and the classical concept of the scientific method. Herein, we examine the relationship between a complex model and a system of interest, or in equivalent words (from a statistical perspective), how uncertainties describing this relationship can be assessed and accounted for in a principled and coherent manner. By way of a simple example, we show how inference can be severely broken if uncertainties are erroneously assessed. We explain and decompose Bayes Rule (more commonly known as Bayes Theorem), examine key components of Bayesian inference, offer some more robust and easier to attain stepping stones, and provide suggestions on implementation and how the community can move forward. This overview is intended for all interested in making and/or evaluating inferences about the past evolution of the Earth system (or any of its components), with a nominal focus on past ice sheet and climate evolution during the Quaternary.

Faunal composition and paleoenvironmental reconstruction of a Middle–Late Triassic boundary assemblage in the Pyrenean basin (Catalonia, NE Spain)

The Ladinian–Carnian transition in the Tethys domain was accompanied by an important environmental change representing a milestone in the climate evolution of the Triassic. However, estimations on paleodiversity composition and paleoenvironmental conditions across this interval are scarce in marine settings due to the lack of fossil-bearing successions. In this work, a refined paleontological and sedimentological study has allowed us to better characterize a well-preserved marine ?Ladinian–Carnian carbonate succession in the South Central Pyrenees (Odèn site, Catalonia, NE Spain). Vertebrate faunas include numerous actinopterygian specimens, forming an assemblage composed of at least four taxa: Peltopleurus cf. P. nuptialis Lombardo, 1999, Saurichthys sp., Colobodus giganteus (Beltan, 1972), and an indeterminate halecomorph. Specimens belonging to the genus Peltopleurus are dominant; the long-snouted Saurichthys, the halecomorph, and the large-bodied Colobodus giganteus are less abundant. Tetrapod remains are scarcely present and are assigned to sauropterygians. Invertebrate faunas include bivalves (Pseudocorbula gregaria [Münster in Goldfuss, 1838]) and brachiopods (Lingula sp.). The fossil assemblage was recovered from organic-rich laminated silty mudstone layers. Sedimentological and textural analyses suggest that fossil biotas were deposited below the fair-weather wave base in shallow subtidal coastal settings. These environments were sporadically sourced by silt/clay. The age of the Odèn site, on the basis of the recovered fauna, is assigned to the ?late Ladinian–middle Carnian (Middle–Late Triassic), which is in agreement with previously published ages based on palynomorph data. The refined integration of paleontological, sedimentological, and biostratigraphic data from the Odèn site and other vertebrate-bearing localities in the Tethys domain can help better constrain the paleoenvironmental conditions and paleogeographical configuration impacting ecosystem diversity during the late Ladinian–Carnian interval.

Polyphony of Short-Term Climatic Variations

It is widely accepted to believe that humanity is mainly responsible for the worldwide temperature growth during the period of instrumental meteorological observations. This paper aims to demonstrate that it is not so simple. Using a wavelet analysis on the example of the time series of the global mean near-surface air temperature created at the American National Climate Data Center (NCDC), some complex structures of inter-annual to multidecadal global mean temperature variations were discovered. The origin of which seems to be better attributable to the Chandler wobble in the Earth’s Pole motion, the Luni-Solar nutation, and the solar activity cycles. Each of these external forces is individually known to climatologists. However, it is demonstrated for the first time that responses of the climate system to these external forces in their integrity form a kind of polyphony superimposed on a general warming trend. Certainly, the general warming trend as such remains to be unconsidered. However, its role is not very essential in the timescale of a few decades. Therefore, it is this polyphony that will determine climate evolution in the nearest future, i.e., during the time most important for humanity currently.

Incomplete similarity of the ice-climate system

Reconstruction and explanation of past climate evolution using proxy records is the essence of paleoclimatology. In this study, we use dimensional analysis and concepts of similarity to recognize theoretical limits of such forensic inquiries. Specifically, we demonstrate that incomplete similarity in the dynamical ice-climate system implies the absence of physical similarity in conglomerate similarity parameters. It means that major events of the past such as, for example, the middle-Pleistocene transition could have been produced by different physical processes, and, therefore, the task of disambiguation of the historical paleo-records may be fundamentally difficult, if not impossible. It also means that any future scenario may not have a unique cause and, in this sense, the orbital time-scale future may be to some extent insensitive to specific physical circumstances.

Human Responses and Adaptation in a Changing Climate: A Framework Integrating Biological, Psychological, and Behavioural Aspects

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of our times. Its impact on human populations is not yet completely understood. Many studies have focused on single aspects with contradictory observations. However, climate change is a complex phenomenon that cannot be adequately addressed from a single discipline’s perspective. Hence, we propose a comprehensive conceptual framework on the relationships between climate change and human responses. This framework includes biological, psychological, and behavioural aspects and provides a multidisciplinary overview and critical information for focused interventions. The role of tipping points and regime shifts is explored, and a historical perspective is presented to describe the relationship between climate evolution and socio-cultural crisis. Vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation are analysed from an individual and a community point of view. Finally, emergent behaviours and mass effect phenomena are examined that account for mental maladjustment and conflicts.