More than an offender location tool: Geographic profiling and body deposition

In homicide cases, it is difficult to provide resolution for the bereaved or to obtain a successful criminal conviction of the guilty party when no body is found. Since the mid-nineteenth century, geographic and environmental patterns have been used to better understand the relationship between crime and its environment. Now known as geographic profiling, practitioners in this field amalgamate criminological, psychological, and geographical knowledge, as well as aspects of mathematics, statistics, and physics to identify spatial patterns associated with criminal behaviour as a means of locating anchor points of an offender (where they live, or work). The same techniques can also be used to locate the covert body deposition sites of their victims. This paper aims to (1) provide a brief summary of criminal behaviour and the environment and how understanding their relationship can be helpful to geographic profiling, (2) amalgamate the available literature on the application of geographic profiling in locating clandestine graves (as most documented uses are to locate offender residences), and (3) include a geographic profile of Ivan Milat, an Australian serial killer (officially) active from 1989 to 1992, demonstrating how geographic profiling techniques can help to identify additional victims and potential body deposition sites. The information in this review will be helpful to law enforcement and practitioners to improve missing persons investigations and searches for clandestine graves.

Finding Needle in the Haystack: “Kasur’s Bogeyman” Brought to Justice by Geographic Profiling and Mass DNA Screening

This article describes the application of the concept of geographic profiling in hunting a serial child rapist in Kasur, Pakistan. It also discusses, how DNA became the prime witness against the serial rapist in the court of law. In January 2018, the blind rape and murder case of Zainab Amin hit the headlines. Following autopsy and the subsequent forensic examination, the only piece of evidence, the agencies had, was the DNA profile of the perpetrator and the information that the source of DNA profile is a serial child rapist, involved in at least seven more cases. The analysis of all crime sites and the distance between them strongly suggested that the offender most likely was a local resident. Mass DNA screening in the target region was conducted by CSI teams of Punjab forensic science agency. The DNA matched with suspect number 814 who later confessed all his crimes. In Polygraph examination, the offender revealed his modus operandi which was in line with the hypotheses made during the geographic profiling of the crime scenes. Thus, geographic profiling proved to be a very useful investigative tool in predicting the probable location of the criminal involved in a series of crimes.

Forensic Geoarchaeology in the Search for Missing Persons

Despite widespread concern over missing persons, there has always been little clarity on what the word “missing” means. Although the category of young runaways is, indeed, an important cluster, other popular concepts related to disappearances describe a portion of missing persons. Thus, the following question persists: What exactly does “missing” mean? In this brief communication, we would like to open a discussion about the social phenomenon of missing persons and the consequent deployment of people and techniques to find those persons. In particular, the benefits of some forensic geoarchaeological approaches that are not yet fully standardized will be highlighted, such as geographic profiling and the use of multispectral satellite images, in order to provide materials for future searching protocols.

The accuracy of geographic profiling methods based on the example of burglaries in Warsaw

In the current study different geographic profiling methods were tested on a sample of burglaries in Warsaw. Overall 38 crime series were included in study, accuracy was measured as hit score and error distance. Results show limited obtained accuracy, comparably lower than what can be seen in similar tests conducted in western cities, but each method also shows improvement with series length. This shows that it is possible to use geographic profiling in polish setting, but also that there are significant limitations that one has to consider.

Epidemiological geographic profiling for a meta-population network

Epidemiological geographic profiling is a statistical method for making inferences about likely areas of a source from the geographical distribution of patients. Epidemiological geographic profiling algorithms are developed to locate a source from the dataset on the number of new cases for a meta-population network model. It is found from the WHO dataset on the SARS outbreak that Hong Kong remains the most likely source throughout the period of observation. This reasoning is pertinent under the restricted circumstance that the number of reported probable cases in China was missing, unreliable, and incomprehensive. It may also imply that globally connected Hong Kong was more influential as a spreader than China. Singapore, Taiwan, Canada, and the United States follow Hong Kong in the likeliness ranking list

Exotic Hobos: Release, escape, and potential secondary dispersal of African red-headed agamas (Agama picticauda PETERS, 1877) through the Florida railway systems

ABSTRACTContextInvasive reptile species are introduced and established through a variety of distribution channels (e.g. accidental/intentional release by pet owners, hitchhiking on imported goods), and can be detrimental to native ecosystems. Understanding the origins and spread of non-native species can help land managers to make informed decisions when attempting to prevent future introductions and remove established populations.AimsThe objectives of this study were to employ modelling techniques with open-source observational data to confirm putative local origins of African red-headed agamas in Florida and to locate potential distribution channels in which they are spreading throughout the state.MethodsGeographic profiling, a technique commonly used for criminal investigations, was used along with suspected origin locations of introduced African red-headed agamas (Agama picticauda) from the literature and observations from the Early Detection and Distribution Mapping System (EDDMapS). Anchor points and their immediate surroundings were investigated for potential patterns of origination and dispersal.Key resultsThe results of this study provide evidence that African red-headed agamas likely established themselves through both intentional releases and unintentional escapes from the pet owners and breeders, while also potentially hitchhiking on plant exports, and dispersing throughout Florida via the railway systems.ConclusionsGiven the potential for railways as a method of assisted dispersal, and given the potential exports they may be hitchhiking on, the results of this study suggest that railcars and railway export facilities should be included in future management of non-native African red-headed agamas in Florida.ImplicationsThe implications of this study builds on prior evidence that geographic profiling is an effective modelling tool in regards to biological invasions, which can accurately confirm suspected origins while also effectively mapping previously unknown epicenters of population clusters to be investigated by managers.

PERFIL GEOGRÁFICO (GEOGRAPHIC PROFILING): METODOLOGIA E ESTUDO DE CASO DE CRIMINOSOS EM SÉRIE ATUANTES EM BELO HORIZONTE

Este artigo discute a metodologia Geographic Profiling, voltada para a análise preditiva de bases operacionais de criminosos seriais. O objetivo é apresentar e aplicar a técnica de GP ao estudo de eventos criminais desencadeados por criminosos em série que operaram em BH, entre 2011 e 2013. Foi realizada abordagem teórica do comportamento espacial criminal e um estudo do perfil geográfico de criminosos seriais que operam em Belo Horizonte. Os resultados indicam que o nível de assertividade da técnica foi verificado e comparado com os endereços residenciais conhecidos dos infratores, assumindo que o local de residência é uma provável base de operações. Os resultados do software RIGEL obtiveram uma taxa de acerto esperada média de 6,94%, o que representa um índice satisfatório de precisão quando comparado com outros trabalhos. Dos 106 perfis geográficos, 90 (85%) possuem pelo menos um endereço válido conhecido dentro da área de busca criada pela RIGEL. Este estudo contribui para preencher uma lacuna na literatura brasileira quanto à falta de construtos teóricos e análises empíricas sobre o Perfil Geográfico no âmbito da Geografia do Crime. Este estudo oferece uma rotina metodológica e resultados empíricos, que podem subsidiar investigações criminais, funcionando como referência para comparações em trabalhos futuros.

EL PERFIL GEOGRÁFICO CRIMINAL UNA NUEVA PROPUESTA EN LA INVESTIGACIÓN GEOESPACIAL DE DELITOS

En todo el mundo, no existe país que no se encuentre amenazado por un hecho delictivo, y que requiera la captura del agresor o agresores para enfrenten a la justicia, pues la simple presencia de un hecho delictivo en una zona genera intranquilidad y zozobra lo cual se materializa en las estadísticas de desarrollo económico y calidad de vida, es por ello, que organismos internacionales como la ONU y países en todos sus niveles administrativos buscan implementar medidas, técnicas estrategias o nuevas herramientas para contrarrestar los hechos delictivos. Es así que una de las más nuevas investigaciones y recientes propuestas a nivel internacional es el desarrollo de un Geographic Profiling o Perfil Geográfico en español y conocido como Retrato Geográfico en otros países, cual es el producto de la intersección de tres ciencias como: la geografía, psicología y criminalística con el objetivo de localizar el área más probable donde puede encontrarse al agresor, sea este: la residencia, lugar de trabajo u otro conocido como punto de anclaje, todo esto en función al análisis geoespacial. Sin embargo, esta nueva metodología al igual que un perfil criminal o psicológico lo que pretenden es aminorar el proceso de investigación, ya que por sí solo no resuelven el caso, además no existe una metodología normalizada o estándar lo cual también ocurre con la elaboración de perfiles psicológicos. Los Sistemas de Información Geográfica son útiles, pues más del 80% de la información cualquiera que fuese la entidad proveniente puede ser espacializada y analizada sobre un mapa. Por esta razón, el presente proyecto tiene como objetivo, caracterizar la psicología y la criminalística desde un punto de vista de la geografía o análisis geoespacial para la construcción de un Perfil Geográfico Criminal estándar o genérico en apoyo a la seguridad ciudadana. Como resultado, se obtuvo los criterios espaciales que involucran el comportamiento espacial del agresor como también la caracterización del entorno a la escena del crimen. En conclusión, el Perfil Geográfico es una potente herramienta que puede ayudar aminorar el trabajo del aparato judicial en la captura de los agresores, como también para el estudio del comportamiento criminal, sin embargo, esta aún no cuenta con las directrices para una investigación geoespacial del delito cual se propone en la evolución al desarrollo metodológico de un Perfil Geográfico Criminal, cual debería ser alienado a una infraestructura de datos espaciales y con criterios de análisis espacial basados en la psicología y criminalística.