Finding Needle in the Haystack: “Kasur’s Bogeyman” Brought to Justice by Geographic Profiling and Mass DNA Screening

This article describes the application of the concept of geographic profiling in hunting a serial child rapist in Kasur, Pakistan. It also discusses, how DNA became the prime witness against the serial rapist in the court of law. In January 2018, the blind rape and murder case of Zainab Amin hit the headlines. Following autopsy and the subsequent forensic examination, the only piece of evidence, the agencies had, was the DNA profile of the perpetrator and the information that the source of DNA profile is a serial child rapist, involved in at least seven more cases. The analysis of all crime sites and the distance between them strongly suggested that the offender most likely was a local resident. Mass DNA screening in the target region was conducted by CSI teams of Punjab forensic science agency. The DNA matched with suspect number 814 who later confessed all his crimes. In Polygraph examination, the offender revealed his modus operandi which was in line with the hypotheses made during the geographic profiling of the crime scenes. Thus, geographic profiling proved to be a very useful investigative tool in predicting the probable location of the criminal involved in a series of crimes.

Polygraphology, profiling, eyetracking and other parascientific methods of psychiatric diagnostics

The article analyzes the problem of scientific groundlessness, inexpediency and unethical use of instrumental paraclinical methods for diagnosing mental and behavioral disorders. An opinion is expressed about the discrepancy between instrumental diagnostics and the criteria set out in international classifications. The use of polygraph examination, profiling and eye tracking in forensic psychiatric expert practice is criticized. It is concluded that in the context of a subjective interpretation of the results obtained and the absence of evidence of correlations between the clinical syndrome and psychophysiological parameters, the conclusion about the presence of psychopathological disorders based on the proposed methods should be recognized as dangerous for the fate of patients and discrediting psychiatric diagnostics.

The ‘Psychology’ of Polygraph’: Engendering Differential Salience - Concerns and Caveats

The ‘success’ of a polygraph examination is predicated on the establishment of differential or emotional salience (a ‘psychological set’) with an examinee. This, according to polygraph proponents, guarantees that an examinee will respond appropriately during the administration of the in-test (questioning) phase of the polygraph examination. However, polygraph procedure, as prescribed by its governing body, the American Polygraph Association (APA), is a static clinical Westernised process that does not make any provision for human multiplicity (culture/ethnicity, idiosyncrasies, level of education, language proficiency, ideologies, and so forth). Identical (one size fits all) test procedures are applied across the board – a highly controversial methodology. This article, instead of rigidly focusing on validity and reliability issues per se, explores the degree to which certain intentional and unintentional human behaviour modification strategies have the potential to counterbalance claimed polygraph rectitude from a metaphysical and discursive standpoint. The article exposes concerns (potential flaws) relating to polygraph theory in the context of the ‘psychological set’ and is intended to serve as a caveat regarding the unmitigated use thereof.

Significance of pre-test interview in polygraph examination

Societies had been struggling against deception and trying to detect it until finally, in the twentieth century, an increasingly popular technique was developed - the use of polygraph. Used for police purposes, but also more and more frequently for private purposes, polygraph inspires trust and offers possibility of detecting whether a person is being dishonest or not. Polygraph does not detect lying, but rather records physiological responses which have been proved to accompany lying and emotional stress. Although polygraph examination consists of three stages, the interrogation being crucial, one should not disregard the significance of the first stage in which the examiner establishes a relationship of trust with the examinees, evaluates the basic pattern of their behaviour, explores the examinees' familiarity with crime, but also their familiarity with the functioning of the polygraph. The pre-test interview is an opportunity to gain new findings but also to detect errors and omissions that have occurred in the operative activities preceding the examination. A study that conducted within the Police Directorate of the City of Belgrade including 270 respondents confirmed that issues arose in the course of examination when the test was not sufficiently prepared and when the pre-test interview was not given sufficient attention. The presentation of obtained findings regarding the errors and omissions detected in the pre-test interview are aimed at familiarizing operatives with the procedure and problems related to polygraph examiners' giving findings due to previous omissions, in order to make their cooperation better and more efficient.

Likelihood Ratio in Evidential Evaluation of Polygraph Examination

The starting point of the paper is the observation that the likelihood ratio (LR) is not used in the evaluation practice of — so important in the field of internal security — polygraph examinations. Meanwhile, LR is the only scientifically justifiable parameter that shows the evidential weight of particular evidence. The authors present theoretical attempts to use LR for evidential assessment of the polygraph examinations value and subject them to criticism. The main objective of the paper is to present the LR calculation procedure in the context of interpretation of a polygraph examination result treated as evaluative expertise. The following assumptions are made: the analysis includes only comparison question techniques; examination results enable to include a relevant subject only in one of the three categories: deception indicated, no deception indicated, inconclusive; there are various ways to assign LR; in the course of LR assignment, the arbitrary adoption of the values of some variables is admissible. Several examples of LR calculations are presented in different tactical configurations of polygraph examinations. The significance of including the inconclusive results in the examination technique characteristics is analysed. The possibility of applying the cumulative LR is indicated, however, leaving this question open. Consequences of the LR application in the interpretation of polygraph examinations are also presented as an argument in the criminal analysis. Conclusions show that treating polygraph examinations as evaluative expertise opens a new perspective on this method of forensic identification and deserves to be continued; however, the issue of the evidential use of polygraph examination results, in the light of the evaluation made with the use of the Bayesian approach, requires a number of further discussions among lawyers and scientists.