A global volcanic eruption source parameter database with application to determination of ashfall risk to infrastructure

<p>Volcanic eruption sequences are often very long in length, and can cause significant downtimes and damage to infrastructure. Over the course of the H2020 EURATOM NARSIS project (New Approach to Reactor Safety ImprovementS), a review of volcanic sources for Europe was undertaken including historical impacts, source parameters and potential events to impact nuclear facilities either directly or operationally.</p><p>The development of a volcano database of Eruption Source Parameters in order to estimate the tephra dispersal and its risk for the surrounding population and infrastructure is an important component for volcanic risk modelling.</p><p>Each eruption is unique with different Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs), depending on the volcano and its surrounding area. The aim of the project is to create a global volcano database including the ESPs. With the help of this database it is possible to generate a risk map of tephra dispersal for future volcanic eruptions. This map can be used to estimate the potential risk of tephra fall for the surrounding population and infrastructure (development of isopahcs).</p><p>The ESPs includes the plume height, the duration of the eruption, the volume, the mass and the grain-size distribution of the erupted material. Using local wind data it is possible to model an eruption and its range with open-source software packages, like Fall3D. A review of such open-source software packages has been undertaken. To get the ESPs of a volcano, which represent its typical eruptions, the eruption history of the volcano needs to be known. This is done using databases like the Smithsonian GVP, VOGRIPA and LaMEVE, as well as other reports and scientific articles.</p><p>The intended result is a volcano database containing 1547 volcanoes. The ESPs for each volcano will be given in ranges to be able to determine the minimal and maximal effects of an eruption. However, data of previous eruptions will not in all cases be able to be found for every volcano. For these volcanoes, assumptions based on the behaviour of similar volcanoes need to be made. This will then be combined with the socioeconomic impacts of historic eruptions as have been collected as part of the CATDAT Damaging Volcanic Eruptions Database, as well as a reanalysis of historical eruptions for ashfall.</p>

Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation

Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (offline) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated with this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern and the significant progress in improving the accuracy of tephra dispersal models in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Cordón Caulle eruptions, to date, no operational online dispersal model is available to forecast volcanic ash. Here, we describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a new online multi-scale meteorological and transport model that attempts to pioneer the forecast of volcanic aerosols at operational level. The model forecasts volcanic ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, and the expected deposit thickness for both regional and global configurations. Its online coupling approach improves the current state-of-the-art tephra dispersal models, especially in situations where meteorological conditions are changing rapidly in time, two-way feedbacks are significant, or distal ash cloud dispersal simulations are required. This work presents the model application for the first phases of the 2011 Cordón Caulle and 2001 Mount Etna eruptions. The computational efficiency of NMMB-MONARCH-ASH and its application results compare favorably with other long-range tephra dispersal models, supporting its operational implementation.

Volcanic ash modeling with the on-line NMMB/BSC-ASHv1.0 model: model description, case simulation and evaluation

Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (off-line) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated to this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern, and the significant progress to improve the accuracy of tephra dispersal models in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Cordón Caulle eruptions, to date, no operational on-line dispersal model is available to forecast volcanic ash. Here, we describe and evaluate NMMB/BSC-ASH, a new on-line multiscale meteorological and transport model that attempts to pioneer the forecast of volcanic aerosols at operational level. The model predicts volcanic ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, and the expected deposit thickness for both regional and global configurations. Its on-line coupling approach improves the current state-of-the-art of tephra dispersal models, especially in situations where meteorological conditions are changing rapidly in time, two-way feedbacks are significant, or distal ash cloud dispersal simulations are required. This work presents the model application for the first phases of the 2011 Cordón Caulle and 2001 Mt. Etna eruptions. The computational efficiency of NMMB/BSC-ASH and its application results compare favorably with other long-range tephra dispersal models, supporting its operational implementation.