Finite-time ruin probability of a perturbed risk model with dependent main and delayed claims

This paper considers a delayed claim risk model with stochastic return and Brownian perturbation in which each main claim may be accompanied with a delayed claim occurring after a stochastic period of time, and the price process of the investment portfolio is described as a geometric Lévy process. By means of the asymptotic results for randomly weighted sum of dependent subexponential random variables we obtain some asymptotics for finite-time ruin probability. A simulation study is also performed to check the accuracy of the obtained theoretical result via the crude Monte Carlo method.

Forecasting Value-at-Risk in turbulent stock markets via the local regularity of the price process

A new computational approach based on the pointwise regularity exponent of the price time series is proposed to estimate Value at Risk. The forecasts obtained are compared with those of two largely used methodologies: the variance-covariance method and the exponentially weighted moving average method. Our findings show that in two very turbulent periods of financial markets the forecasts obtained using our algorithm decidedly outperform the two benchmarks, providing more accurate estimates in terms of both unconditional coverage and independence and magnitude of losses.

Realized Multi-Power Variation Process for Jump Detection in the Nigerian All Share Index

In this paper, we studied the particular cases of higher-order realized multipower variation process, their asymptotic properties comprising the probability limits and limit distributions were highlighted. The respective asymptotic variances of the limit distributions were obtained and jump detection models were developed from the asymptotic results. The models were obtained from the particular cases of the higher-order of the realized multipower variation process, in a class of continuous stochastic volatility semimartingale process. These are extensions of the method of jump detection by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2006), for large discrete data. An Empirical Application of the models to the Nigerian All Share Index (NASI) data shows that the models are robust to jumps and suggest that stochastic models with added jump components will give a better representation of the NASI price process.

Optimal bidding functions for renewable energies in sequential electricity markets

In most modern energy markets, electricity is traded in pay-as-clear auctions. Usually, multiple sequential markets with daily auctions, in which each hourly product is traded separately, coexist. In each market and for each traded hour, each power producer and consumer submits multiple price and volume combinations, called bids. After all bids are submitted by the market participants, the market-clearing price for each hour is published, and the market participants must fulfill their accepted commitments. The corresponding decision problem is particularly difficult to solve for market participants with stochastic supply or demand. We formulate the energy trading problem as a dynamic program and derive the optimal bidding functions analytically via backward recursion. We demonstrate that, for each hour and market, the optimal bidding function is completely defined by two bids. While we focus on power producers with stochastic supply (e.g., wind or solar), our model is applicable to power consumers with stochastic demand, as well. The optimal policy is applicable in most liberalized energy markets, virtually independent of the structure of the underlying electricity price process.

The Effect of Mean-Reverting Processes in the Pricing of Options in the Energy Market: An Arithmetic Approach

In this paper we study the effect that mean-reverting components in the arithmetic dynamics of electricity spot price have on the price of a call option on a swap. Our model allows for seasonal effects, spikes, and negative values of the price of electricity. We show that for sufficiently large delivery periods of the swap contract, the error that one makes by neglecting some of the mean-reverting processes affecting the spot price evolution converges to zero. The decay rate is explicitly calculated. This is achieved by exploiting the additive structure of the electricity price process in order to determine an explicit closed-form formula for the price of the call on a swap. The theoretical analysis is then illustrated via a numerical example.

CONSISTENT UPPER PRICE BOUNDS FOR EXOTIC OPTIONS

We consider the problem of finding a consistent upper price bound for exotic options whose payoff depends on the stock price at two different predetermined time points (e.g. Asian option), given a finite number of observed call prices for these maturities. A model-free approach is used, only taking into account that the (discounted) stock price process is a martingale under the no-arbitrage condition. In case the payoff is directionally convex we obtain the worst case marginal pricing measures. The speed of convergence of the upper price bound is determined when the number of observed stock prices increases. We illustrate our findings with some numerical computations.

Betting on bitcoin: a profitable trading between directional and shielding strategies

In this paper, we come up with an original trading strategy on Bitcoins. The methodology we propose is profit-oriented, and it is based on buying or selling the so-called Contracts for Difference, so that the investor’s gain, assessed at a given future time t, is obtained as the difference between the predicted Bitcoin price and an apt threshold. Starting from some empirical findings, and passing through the specification of a suitable theoretical model for the Bitcoin price process, we are able to provide possible investment scenarios, thanks to the use of a Recurrent Neural Network with a Long Short-Term Memory for predicting purposes.

Forward start options under Heston affine jump-diffusions and stochastic interest rate

This paper presents a generalization of forward start options under jump diffusion framework of Duffie et al. [Duffie, D, J Pan and K Singleton (2000). Transform analysis and asset pricing for affine jump-diffusions, Econometrica 68, 1343–1376.]. We assume, in addition, the short-term rate is governed by the CIR dynamics introduced in Cox et al. [Cox, JC, JE Ingersoll and SA Ross (1985). A theory of term structure of interest rates, Econometrica 53, 385–408.]. The instantaneous volatilities are correlated with the dynamics of the stock price process, whereas the short-term rate is assumed to be independent of the dynamics of the price process and its volatility. The main result furnishes a semi-analytical formula for the price of the Forward Start European call option. It is derived using probabilistic approach combined with the Fourier inversion technique, as developed in Ahlip and Rutkowski [Ahlip, R and M Rutkowski (2014). Forward start foreign exchange options under Heston’s volatility and CIR interest rates, Inspired By Finance Springer, pp. 1–27], Carr and Madan [Carr, P and D Madan (1999). Option valuation using the fast Fourier transform, Journal of Computational Finance 2, 61–73, Carr, P and D Madan (2009). Saddle point methods for option pricing, Journal of Computational Finance 13, 49–61] as well as Levendorskiĩ [Levendorskiĩ, S (2012). Efficient pricing and reliable calibration in the Heston model, International Journal of Applied Finance 15, 1250050].

Stochastic sensitivity of bull and bear states

We study the price dynamics generated by a stochastic version of a Day–Huang type asset market model with heterogenous, interacting market participants. To facilitate the analysis, we introduce a methodology that allows us to assess the consequences of changes in uncertainty on the dynamics of an asset price process close to stable equilibria. In particular, we focus on noise-induced transitions between bull and bear states of the market under additive as well as parametric noise. Our results are obtained by combining the stochastic sensitivity function (SSF) approach, a mixture of analytical and numerical techniques, due to Mil’shtein and Ryashko (1995) with concepts and techniques from the study of non-smooth 1D maps. We find that the stochastic sensitivity of the respective bull and bear equilibria in the presence of additive noise is higher than under parametric noise. Thus, recurrent transitions are likely to be observed already for relatively low intensities of additive noise.

Conditional coherent risk measures and regime-switching conic pricing

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>This paper introduces and represents conditional coherent risk measures as essential suprema of conditional expectations over a convex set of probability measures and as distorted expectations given a concave distortion function. A model is then developed for the bid and ask prices of a European-type asset by a conic formulation. The price process is governed by a modified geometric Brownian motion whose drift and diffusion coefficients depend on a Markov chain. The bid and ask prices of a European-type asset are then characterized using conic quantization.</p>