scholarly journals Stochastic sensitivity of bull and bear states

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jochen Jungeilges ◽  
Elena Maklakova ◽  
Tatyana Perevalova
Keyword(s):  
Additive Noise ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Asset Market ◽  
Stochastic Version ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Price Process ◽  
Stochastic Sensitivity ◽  
Stable Equilibria ◽  
Parametric Noise

AbstractWe study the price dynamics generated by a stochastic version of a Day–Huang type asset market model with heterogenous, interacting market participants. To facilitate the analysis, we introduce a methodology that allows us to assess the consequences of changes in uncertainty on the dynamics of an asset price process close to stable equilibria. In particular, we focus on noise-induced transitions between bull and bear states of the market under additive as well as parametric noise. Our results are obtained by combining the stochastic sensitivity function (SSF) approach, a mixture of analytical and numerical techniques, due to Mil’shtein and Ryashko (1995) with concepts and techniques from the study of non-smooth 1D maps. We find that the stochastic sensitivity of the respective bull and bear equilibria in the presence of additive noise is higher than under parametric noise. Thus, recurrent transitions are likely to be observed already for relatively low intensities of additive noise.

scholarly journals STABILITY ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS OF A TWO-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM ARISING FROM A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR AN ASSET MARKET

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (04) ◽  
pp. 715-752
Author(s):  
VLADIMIR BELITSKY ◽  
ANTONIO LUIZ PEREIRA ◽  
FERNANDO PIGEARD DE ALMEIDA PRADO
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical System ◽  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Excess Demand ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Asset Market ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Equilibrium Solutions ◽  
Dimensional Dynamical System ◽  
Demand Fluctuations

We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a single risky asset market. An advantage of this construction procedure is that the resulting dynamical system becomes a macroscopic market model which mirrors the market quantities and qualities that would typically be taken into account solely at the microscopic level of modeling. The system's parameters correspond to: (a) the proportion of speculators in a market; (b) the traders' speculative trend; (c) the degree of heterogeneity of idiosyncratic evaluations of the market agents with respect to the asset's fundamental value; and (d) the strength of the feedback of the population excess demand on the asset price update increment. This correspondence allows us to employ our results in order to infer plausible causes for the emergence of price and demand fluctuations in a real asset market. The employment of dynamical systems for studying evolution of stochastic models of socio-economic phenomena is quite usual in the area of heterogeneous interacting agent models. However, in the vast majority of the cases present in the literature, these dynamical systems are one-dimensional. Our work is among the few in the area that construct and study analytically a two-dimensional dynamical system and apply it for explanation of socio-economic phenomena.

scholarly journals Inflation and Risky Investments

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 329
Author(s):  
Hannu Laurila ◽  
Jukka Ilomäki
Keyword(s):  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Risky Asset ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Asset Market ◽  
Risky Assets ◽  
Fiat Money ◽  
Initial Wealth ◽  
Prediction Coefficient

The paper uses a Walrasian two-period financial market model with informed and uninformed constant absolute risk averse (CARA) rational investors and noise traders. The investors allocate their initial wealth between risky assets and risk-free fiat money. The analysis concentrates on the effects of decreasing value of money, or inflation, on the rational investors’ behavior and the asset market. The main findings are the following: Inflation does not affect the informed investors’ prediction coefficient but makes that of the uninformed investors diminish. Inflation does not affect rational investors’ risk but makes the asset price more sensitive to fundament-based and sentiment-based shocks. Inflation changes the market price of the risky asset rise; while it has no effects on the informed investors’ demand of the risky asset, it does affect the uninformed investors’ demand. Finally, inflation makes the asset market more volatile.

scholarly journals Cross-section instability in financial markets: impatience, extrapolation, and switching

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Dieci ◽  
Xue-Zhong He
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Asset Market ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Equilibrium Market ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Fundamental Price

AbstractThis paper presents a stylized model of interaction among boundedly rational heterogeneous agents in a multi-asset financial market to examine how agents’ impatience, extrapolation, and switching behaviors can affect cross-section market stability. Besides extrapolation and performance based switching between fundamental and extrapolative trading documented in single asset market, we show that a high degree of ‘impatience’ of agents who are ready to switch to more profitable trading strategy in the short run provides a further cross-section destabilizing mechanism. Though the ‘fundamental’ steady-state values, which reflect the standard present-value of the dividends, represent an unbiased equilibrium market outcome in the long run (to a certain extent), the price deviation from the fundamental price in one asset can spill-over to other assets, resulting in cross-section instability. Based on a (Neimark–Sacker) bifurcation analysis, we provide explicit conditions on how agents’ impatience, extrapolation, and switching can destabilize the market and result in a variety of short and long-run patterns for the cross-section asset price dynamics.

scholarly journals Emergent volatility in asset markets with heterogeneous agents

2001 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 171-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Honggang Li ◽  
J. Barkley Rosser
Keyword(s):  
Heterogeneous Agents ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Switching Behavior ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Technical Trading Rules ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Fundamental Value ◽  
Discrete Formulation

This paper examines the emergence of complex volatility in dynamic asset markets when there are heterogeneous agents. A discrete formulation is studied with two categories of market participants, fundamentalist traders who buy when the asset price is below the fundamental value and sell when it is above and noise traders who use moving average technical trading rules that can lead them to chase trends. Agents switch from one type of strategy to the other according to relative returns. A variety of outcomes are studied using numerical simulation, including variation of market price responsiveness to changes in excess demand, in switching behavior, and the introduction of noise. Bifurcation analysis of certain parameters is presented.

scholarly journals Appraisal of the Fischer-DiPasquale-Wheaton (FDW) real estate model and development of an integrated property and asset market model

2004 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 341-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
H Du Toit ◽  
CE Cloete
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
South African ◽  
Stochastic Equations ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Asset Market ◽  
Model Configuration ◽  
Property Markets ◽  
Micro Foundations

This paper provides a concise overview of the development of an integrated property and asset market model (IPAMM) for South African property markets, utilising the Pretoria office market as case study. The IPAMM simulates the interrelationships between property and asset markets in a diagrammatic quadrant model configuration. The Fischer-DiPasquale-Wheaton (FDW) real estate model, arguably the most advanced diagrammatic quadrant real estate model available at present, served as basis for the development of IPAMM. IPAMM is essentially a regression model based on a system of stochastic equations that captures the interrelationships between property and asset markets. The model advances beyond mere conceptualisation of these relationships to a quantified interpretation and application of the theoretical premises that represent the micro-foundations of economic behaviour in property and asset markets.

A RECOMBINING TREE METHOD FOR OPTION PRICING WITH STATE-DEPENDENT SWITCHING RATES

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (02) ◽  
pp. 1650012 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. X. JIANG ◽  
R. H. LIU ◽  
D. NGUYEN
Keyword(s):  
Option Pricing ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Numerical Results ◽  
Price Process ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Switching Models ◽  
Markovian Regime Switching ◽  
Tree Method ◽  
Markovian Regime

This paper develops simple and efficient tree approaches for option pricing in switching jump diffusion models where the rates of switching are assumed to depend on the underlying asset price process. The models generalize many existing models in the literature and in particular, the Markovian regime-switching models with jumps. The proposed trees grow linearly as the number of tree steps increases. Conditions on the choices of key parameters for the tree design are provided that guarantee the positivity of branch probabilities. Numerical results are provided and compared with results reported in the literature for the Markovian regime-switching cases. The reported numerical results for the state-dependent switching models are new and can be used for comparison in the future.

Forward implications of a simple stochastic asset market model

1985 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 389-393
Author(s):  
Andrew K. Rose
Keyword(s):  
Market Model ◽  
Asset Market

Asset market bubbles in an experiment with sequential information releases

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian D. Kluger
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Common Factors ◽  
Asset Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Present Design ◽  
Sequential Information ◽  
Fundamental Values

PurposeMuch of the author’s understanding of experimental asset market bubbles is based on the Smith, Suchanek and Williams (SSW) design. The purpose of this paper is to find alternative bubble-producing designs, which is a promising path for new insights.Design/methodology/approachThe Smith et al. (1988) experimental design has been widely used to study bubbles. This paper introduces a novel modification, where the asset has a binary liquidation value and no dividends. Dividends are replaced by the events affecting the liquidation value probability distribution.FindingsOverpricing is common and consistent with subject optimism concerning the random liquidation value. Bubbles are also observed, as the degree of overpricing often rises and then fall during the experiments. However, crashes where the asset price drops below fundamental values are not observed.Research limitations/implicationsSubject over optimism, speculation and/or subject confusion are possible bubble ingredients. More research is needed to determine how much the factors responsible for these bubbles differ from the factors responsible for the SSW design. However, it seems likely that there are at least some common factors given the structural similarities between the two designs.Originality/valueThe present design is novel and may provide a means to better generalize results from previous experiments based on the SSW design.

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