Central banks and civil war termination

The ability to finance conflict likely affects the odds of sustaining a war and succeeding in it. Recent literature explores rebel group funding, but far less is known about how states finance their own war efforts. This article posits that the design of central banks should affect civil war termination. In particular, it argues that central bank independence affects civil war termination through two channels. First, financial markets consider central bank independence as a good signal in terms of macroeconomic stability and debt repayment. In this way, independent central banks enhance the ability of the government to access credit to finance and end a civil war. Second, central bank independence is associated with lower inflation. Inflation control reduces one source of additional grievances that the civil war may impose on citizens. On a sample of civil wars between 1975 and 2009, central bank independence is associated with a substantial increase in the likelihood of war termination. When the form of termination is disaggregated, (higher) central bank independence is associated with a higher probability of government victory, relative to continued conflict and to other outcomes. Additional tests provide support for the argued mechanisms: during civil wars, countries with more independent central banks access international credit markets in better conditions – i.e. they pay lower interest rates, and receive longer grace and maturity periods on new debt. Furthermore, in countries experiencing civil wars, central bank independence is associated with lower inflation.

Back to the Iron Cage? Institutional Isomorphism of the AIIB

During its first five years of operation, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is becoming more and more similar to traditional Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) in terms of operational goals, business area, and environmental and social standards. Why has the AIIB, the newest type of multilateral development bank (MDB) initiated by an emerging economy, undergone institutional isomorphism? Based on the socialization theory, this paper argues that the institutional environment in which the AIIB is operating has a strong influence on AIIB’s institution-building, mainly through the coercive, mimetic, and normative institutional isomorphic processes. On coercion, the pressures from European donors, international credit rating agencies, and global civil society have resulted in the AIIB’s institutional isomorphism. On mimicking, the social uncertainty of the relationship between the AIIB and the Belt and Road Initiative and the technical uncertainty of infrastructure projects have triggered the AIIB’s institutional isomorphism. On normativeness, the similar educational backgrounds and working experience of the AIIB’s staff and active interactions among the MDB family members have caused the AIIB’s institutional isomorphism. The paper concludes that the international institutional environment might hamper emerging economies’ capabilities of institutional innovation.

Castillo cabinet points to troubles ahead in Peru

Significance The delayed ratification of Pedro Francke as finance minister was designed to calm concerns. Castillo’s agenda, outlined in his Independence Day speech to Congress, sought to blend the demands of his party with a programme that seeks to appease the private sector. Lacking a majority in Congress, Castillo will have difficulty in legislating. Impacts Cabinet splits may soon emerge, further testing Castillo’s leadership skills. Peru’s international credit rating may suffer if Castillo abandons economic orthodoxy. Castillo’s ability to honour promises to vaccinate 70% of the population by year-end will be a metric of initial success. International support for the new government may prove fleeting if foreign investments are endangered.

Infrastructure finance, late development, and China’s reshaping of international credit governance

How is the rise of China affecting international governance? This paper examines the domain of infrastructure finance by focusing on China’s two policy banks, which are the main creditors of China’s overseas infrastructure projects. While the incumbent international credit regimes led by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) distinguish development-oriented aid from commercially oriented export credits, emerging late-developed economies blur this dichotomy by largely funding development projects with state-backed export credits. The way China alters the OECD’s credit governance, this paper argues, demonstrates both the generality of late development and the peculiarity of “Chinese” development. Rather than directly subsidizing firms’ international business with the state’s fiscal revenue, policy banks financialized host country’s state-owned and state-coordinated assets using various market instruments. By doing so, they gave Chinese firms a comparative advantage in the markets of less developed regions, allowing them to undertake projects that firms from advanced industrial countries cannot. This financing mechanism has reshaped the international development regime by transforming the dominant means of credit allocation from state-led aid-giving to market-based exchange, and rewritten the liberal rules of the international export credit regime by financing the developing world in a both statist and liberalist manner. As a result, China has built a paralleled regime in regions insufficiently covered by the existing financial schemes of incumbent credit regimes.

Characteristics of the bank's credit line as a variety of financial service

The article analyzes the development of the financial services market in the global financial crisis. Due to the influence of modern civilized culture of developed European countries, the demand for credit and credit services has increased and needs adjustment, preventive regulation, because society does not have the skills to forecast and take into account economic changes in the country and the world as a whole. However, the financial awareness and legal awareness of consumers of banking services is generally not high, which is the reason for inadequate initiatives and improper implementation of credit relations. Therefore, in light of the expanded demand for banking credit services, the authors emphasize that it is very important to study the characteristics of financial services, which will ensure adequate legal protection of private human rights in today's volatile economic environment. The authors analyze the development trends and favorable conditions for the formation of demand for credit services both nationally and internationally. Favorable circumstances that shape the demand for such services as a credit line are highlighted. The advantages of a line of credit are defined – the borrower can get a loan within a certain limit at any time when he needs it. The situation in the country with regard to the use of international credit lines is analyzed. The main attention is paid to the study of key, essential terms of the contract in view of the possible risks of its implementation and compliance with the rights of counterparties. The paper emphasizes the importance of an objective approach in determining the terms and limits of the credit line. It is determined that provided that the goal is clearly defined, which allows to assess the risks of the loan, and the establishment of correct limits and terms of loan repayment, proper development of credit relations is possible in which the rights of each party will have prospects.