Canada election result prompts internal party reviews

Significance The governing Liberal Party presented the election as the most important in decades as it sought a mandate to lead the country’s emergence from the pandemic. Instead, the election delivered little change, leaving Prime Minister Justin Trudeau heading a minority government, most likely with support from the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) as before. Impacts An expected cabinet shuffle will see new ministers at key departments including Justice and Foreign Affairs. Provinces will drop their resistance to the proposed childcare programme, which will be in effect before the end of 2022. No new pipelines will be proposed or built while Trudeau remains in office, given perceived government hostility to fossil fuels. The transfer to the provinces of significant responsibility for healthcare will go ahead as decentralisation accelerates.

Canada’s NDP will decide fate of Trudeau government

Significance Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had prorogued parliament. The throne speech requires a vote of confidence in the government. If the government loses, a snap election can follow. Neither the Conservatives nor Bloc Quebecois will support the speech, so all eyes are now on the New Democratic Party (NDP). Impacts Lack of attention to western issues in the speech will fan alienation in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The speech’s green economy emphasis and lack of resource sector support means further projects will probably end or be cancelled. Liberal desire to avoid an election may see significant concessions to the NDP in healthcare, childcare and sick leave. The stated intention to go deeper into debt and lack of a clear fiscal plan may undermine Canada’s credit rating.

Hashtag Politics: A Twitter Sentiment Analysis of the 2015 Canadian Federal Election

We developed a split plot design model for analysis of sentiment toward federal political parties on the social media platform Twitter in the weeks prior to the 2015 Canadian Federal Election. Data was collected from Twitter’s Application Programming Interface (API) via statistical program R. We scored the sentiment of each Twitter message referring to the parties and tested using ANOVA. Our results suggested that the Liberal Party and New Democratic Party had more positive sentiment than the Conservative Party. Actual seat wins coincide with our results for the Liberal Party (which won 148 new seats) and the Conservative Party (which lost 60 seats), but positive sentiment for the New Democratic Party did not correspond to seat wins.

Canada’s re-elected Trudeau will vie for allies

Significance Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives increased their number of seats and won the popular vote, but the non-proportional voting system prevents them winning government. Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party (NDP) performed reasonably but lost seats in Quebec to Bloc Quebecois, this election’s most unambiguous victors. Negotiations are underway to determine with whose support the Liberals will now govern. Impacts Western provinces’ alienation could escalate into demands for separation from Canada or new constitutional arrangements. Quebec will likely demand and gain more rights and autonomy in the federation, but not call for another independence referendum. Scheer will face Conservative leadership challenges but will likely remain party leader. The Trans Mountain pipeline will retain Liberal backing and be constructed.