Canada’s re-elected Trudeau will vie for allies

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Leadership Challenges ◽  
Voting System ◽  
New Democratic Party

Significance Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives increased their number of seats and won the popular vote, but the non-proportional voting system prevents them winning government. Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party (NDP) performed reasonably but lost seats in Quebec to Bloc Quebecois, this election’s most unambiguous victors. Negotiations are underway to determine with whose support the Liberals will now govern. Impacts Western provinces’ alienation could escalate into demands for separation from Canada or new constitutional arrangements. Quebec will likely demand and gain more rights and autonomy in the federation, but not call for another independence referendum. Scheer will face Conservative leadership challenges but will likely remain party leader. The Trans Mountain pipeline will retain Liberal backing and be constructed.

Canadian election could produce fragile government

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Canadian History ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Voting System ◽  
The Right ◽  
New Democratic Party

Significance The three main parties -- the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP), the centrist Liberals, and the right-wing Conservatives -- are nearly tied in national voter intention polls. While the effects of Canada's first-past-the-post voting system appear to give the Conservatives and the NDP better chances at winning a plurality of seats in parliament, all three parties have a chance at victory, an unprecedented situation in Canadian history. Impacts The death of refugee Alan Kurdi has resulted in all three parties promising to expand Canada's acceptance of refugees from Iraq and Syria. The longer campaign could result in a doubling of the election's cost to the taxpayer. Both the NDP and the Liberals have promised that this will be the final election using the first-past-the-post system.

Canada voting system will hinder right-wing populism

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Business Leadership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
The Social ◽  
Voting System ◽  
Right Wing Populism

Significance Trudeau’s government has been held up as a bulwark of liberalism given the surge of anti-immigration populist candidates and parties in Europe and the United States. However, two leadership candidates in the Conservative race have sought to ape the political style and policy agenda that brought Donald Trump to power in the United States. Mainstream Canadian political actors are seeking to either counter or benefit electorally from rising distrust in government, fears over immigration and integration, and communitarian focus on Islam within right-wing politics. Impacts Opposition to the Trump presidency may help unify fractious left-leaning Canadian voters behind the Liberals. However, the social-democratic New Democratic Party will cite Trudeau-Trump cooperation to peel off progressive voters. Alienation of anti-immigration Conservatives will increase under libertarian or pro-business leadership.

West will urge parties to form Kosovo government

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Radical Change ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The Future ◽  
The One

Significance In the lead is the three-party PAN coalition, comprising the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) and Initiative for Kosovo (Nisma), all parties with their origins in the one-time Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK). However, with just one-third of the popular vote and a projected 39 seats in Kosovo’s 120-seat parliament, the coalition’s tally has fallen well short of the working majority needed to form a government. Waiting to take power is the populist, anti-establishment Vetevendosje movement, offering the prospect of radical change in Kosovo’s politics. Impacts The chance of market-based reforms has fallen; a Vetevendosje-led government would try to reverse such policies as privatisation. Vetevendosje’s potential exclusion from government risks further civil unrest, amid poor living standards and anger with the establishment. The near-inevitability of hardline nationalists entering government implies worse relations with Serbia and possibly a serious incident. EU integration will remain stuck since there is little chance of the new parliament ratifying the border agreement with Montenegro.

Progressive split poses 2019 risk for Canada’s Trudeau

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Tax Avoidance ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Early Indication ◽  
New Democratic Party

Subject Canada's federal political outlook. Significance Canada’s three main parties have all selected the leaders with which they will contest the 2019 federal election. New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of the Liberal Party now have two years in which to define themselves for the electorate and make a case for their parties to assume or resume control of government. Impacts Fallout from fundraiser links to the Paradise Papers tax avoidance controversy could undercut Trudeau’s Liberals. Trudeau’s strong Quebec ties will help him hold off the NDP, but Ontario losses could leave a Liberal minority government. Ontario’s 2018 provincial election will offer an early indication of the strength of Trudeau’s federal opponents.

Right-wing alliance will undermine Alberta carbon tax

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Oil Sands ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Alberta Oil Sands ◽  
New Democratic Party

Significance The Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose party voted to merge with each other and contest the next provincial election in 2019 united as the UCP. The new bloc poses a significant threat to the province’s left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) government and to climate policy in Alberta and across the country. Impacts An Alberta-British Columbia spat over pipeline development seems inevitable whichever party wins in 2019, forcing Ottawa to intervene. The NDP government will increase borrowing as the election draws close to finance popular social programmes. Cheaper alternatives will undercut the Alberta oil sands even if a UCP government brings in deregulation.

Re-elected Abe will focus on constitution

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Liberal Democratic Party ◽  
The Other ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Japanese History ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Liberal Democratic

Subject The implications of Shinzo Abe's re-election for another term as party leader. Significance Shinzo Abe’s re-election to the post of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president on September 20 makes it likely that he will continue to serve as prime minister until September 2021. In November 2019 he will become the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history. Impacts Promotions to the new cabinet will give indications of who might run for party leader next time round. If Washington imposes tariffs, Japan will probably retaliate. Japan will try to strengthen relations with the other two members of the ‘Quad’ (India and Australia).

Ishiba cannot rival Abe for Japan leadership yet

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Policy ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Liberal Democratic Party ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Good Sense ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Liberal Democratic ◽  
The Us

Subject A profile of Shigeru Ishiba. Significance Ishiba was runner-up to Abe in the 2012 leadership contest for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and since then has positioned himself to replace Abe as party leader and prime minister should Abe's popularity falter. A poll last month showed that 20.4% of the public wanted Ishiba as prime minister compared with Abe's 19.7%, a dramatic swing since December, when Abe had 34.5% and Ishiba just 10.9%. Impacts Security policy is Ishiba's strength; he has well-developed views and a good sense of what is realistic. Ishiba's critique of Abenomics is lucid, but he has yet to offer a clear alternative. Washington would likely welcome an Ishiba government since he has good connections in the US defence establishment. Ishiba's Christianity may also win him points in Washington.

Ontario-Ottawa frictions will likely grow in Canada

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Cap And Trade ◽  
Carbon Pricing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Federal Level ◽  
Code Changes ◽  
New Democratic Party

Significance There are some concerns about how well-developed PC policy and fiscal plans are. The left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) is now Ontario’s official opposition and has four years to define itself as a government in waiting. Impacts Carbon pricing and cap-and-trade will be scrapped in Ontario, despite the revenues they bring the provincial government. The NDP’s greater visibility in Ontario will help the federal-level NDP. Within Canada, Ontario faces a disproportionate impact from US steel and aluminium tariffs. Ford and his caucus are likely to rely heavily on tax code changes to shape policy outcomes.

Canada election result prompts internal party reviews

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Affairs ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
New Democratic Party

Significance The governing Liberal Party presented the election as the most important in decades as it sought a mandate to lead the country’s emergence from the pandemic. Instead, the election delivered little change, leaving Prime Minister Justin Trudeau heading a minority government, most likely with support from the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) as before. Impacts An expected cabinet shuffle will see new ministers at key departments including Justice and Foreign Affairs. Provinces will drop their resistance to the proposed childcare programme, which will be in effect before the end of 2022. No new pipelines will be proposed or built while Trudeau remains in office, given perceived government hostility to fossil fuels. The transfer to the provinces of significant responsibility for healthcare will go ahead as decentralisation accelerates.

Charges will test fragile new Macedonian government

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Public Procurement ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Social Democrat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Absolute Priority ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Procurement Procedure ◽  
The Government

Significance The 17 cases concern abuse of institutional capacities, abuse of office and violation of public procurement procedure. Janeva indicated that she might ask for the detention of 18 individuals including a party leader, widely believed to be Nikola Gruevski of the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) and his closest associates. Gruevski was quick to argue that Janeva's move was politically motivated, and said he was ending his "toleration" of the government led by Social Democrat (SDSM) leader Zoran Zaev, raising the spectre of another spate of VMRO-orchestrated demonstrations. Impacts Zaev is likely to move resolutely against 'Gruevski's oligarchs' but this may not eliminate clientelism, as SDSM has had its own favourites. NATO membership is an absolute priority for the new government, mindful that EU membership is likely to take much longer. While relations with Bulgaria and Greece are improving, relations with Serbia have suffered since Zaev's coming to power.

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