Canada’s NDP will decide fate of Trudeau government

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sick Leave ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Green Economy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Resource Sector ◽  
New Democratic Party

Significance Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had prorogued parliament. The throne speech requires a vote of confidence in the government. If the government loses, a snap election can follow. Neither the Conservatives nor Bloc Quebecois will support the speech, so all eyes are now on the New Democratic Party (NDP). Impacts Lack of attention to western issues in the speech will fan alienation in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The speech’s green economy emphasis and lack of resource sector support means further projects will probably end or be cancelled. Liberal desire to avoid an election may see significant concessions to the NDP in healthcare, childcare and sick leave. The stated intention to go deeper into debt and lack of a clear fiscal plan may undermine Canada’s credit rating.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

Malaysia will see more autocratic governance

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Credit Rating ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Credit ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

Subject Malaysia under Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Significance The new Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition led by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has sought to reform drastically the country’s politics. Its focus on tackling corruption has included pursuing former Prime Minister Najib Razak over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal; Najib denies all charges against him. Impacts The government will allow global investigations into 1MDB funds to accelerate. A substantially higher debt-to-GDP ratio (80%), as per new calculations, will increase the cost of future borrowing. Economic confidence-building measures will secure Malaysia’s international credit rating. Contractual penalties may force the government to delay rather than cancel infrastructure deals with Singapore and China.

Progressive split poses 2019 risk for Canada’s Trudeau

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Tax Avoidance ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Early Indication ◽  
New Democratic Party

Subject Canada's federal political outlook. Significance Canada’s three main parties have all selected the leaders with which they will contest the 2019 federal election. New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of the Liberal Party now have two years in which to define themselves for the electorate and make a case for their parties to assume or resume control of government. Impacts Fallout from fundraiser links to the Paradise Papers tax avoidance controversy could undercut Trudeau’s Liberals. Trudeau’s strong Quebec ties will help him hold off the NDP, but Ontario losses could leave a Liberal minority government. Ontario’s 2018 provincial election will offer an early indication of the strength of Trudeau’s federal opponents.

Italian stability hinges on M5S future and Salvini

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Coalition ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Litmus Test

Subject Italian political outlook. Significance On January 26, Italy’s co-ruling Democratic Party (PD) defeated Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party by 51.4% to 43.6% in elections in Emilia Romagna, a prosperous region of northern Italy. In what was a litmus test for the fragile national coalition between PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S), the PD victory has reduced the risk of a government collapse. Impacts Risk-averse investors will remain cautious about Italy over the next year. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hopes the result will give the government the stability to cut taxes to boost private sector investment. Salvini’s support could decline if he continues to personalise the League’s election campaigns.

Canada election result prompts internal party reviews

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Affairs ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
New Democratic Party

Significance The governing Liberal Party presented the election as the most important in decades as it sought a mandate to lead the country’s emergence from the pandemic. Instead, the election delivered little change, leaving Prime Minister Justin Trudeau heading a minority government, most likely with support from the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) as before. Impacts An expected cabinet shuffle will see new ministers at key departments including Justice and Foreign Affairs. Provinces will drop their resistance to the proposed childcare programme, which will be in effect before the end of 2022. No new pipelines will be proposed or built while Trudeau remains in office, given perceived government hostility to fossil fuels. The transfer to the provinces of significant responsibility for healthcare will go ahead as decentralisation accelerates.

Tensions will rise as Montenegro 'coup' comes to trial

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Political Relations ◽  
The Government ◽  
Property Markets

Subject The authorities’ allegations that members of Russia’s security services were involved in a failed plot to overthrow the government last October. Significance Recent press reports quoting official Whitehall and NATO sources have backed allegations of a Russian-assisted coup plot, which Moscow has strongly denied. Montenegrin officials including former Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic claim the aim was to prevent Montenegro joining NATO. Leaders of the pro-Russian opposition bloc, the Democratic Front (DF), whom the authorities accuse of complicity, have denounced it as ‘fake news’ concocted by the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and its allies to maintain their quarter-century-long hold on power. Impacts Montenegro is on course to join NATO but full ratification may await the Dutch elections and the Trump presidency’s settling in. Accusing Moscow of planning a coup will set back political relations despite Russia's prominence in tourist and property markets. Good relations with Serbia will continue, with Vucic equally aware of the need for care as Russia strengthens its Western Balkan presence. Montenegro will continue to make progress towards EU membership with the possibility of joining as early as the start of the next decade. London will try to reinvigorate its influence in the region post-Brexit by supporting Podgorica against threats to its pro-Western stance.

UK freeports agenda may disappoint

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Central Component ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Creation ◽  
The Government

Significance The government vows that freeports will represent “hubs of enterprise which will allow places to carry out business inside a country’s land border but where different customs rules apply”. The creation of freeports are a central component of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government to facilitate global trade and promote regional regeneration in the post-Brexit era. Impacts With Brexit, London will have more flexibility regarding the concessions it can offer businesses operating in freeports. The government vows to create freeports in the devolved regions but faces the difficult task of cooperating with the devolved governments. Some poorer regions will miss out on freeports, which could leave them even more deprived and stoke local resentment against London.

Five-party Czech government must compromise on policy

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The Government ◽  
Social Uncertainty

Significance The five-party coalition enters office at a time of intense economic and social uncertainty resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, rising debt and soaring energy prices. Prime Minister Petr Fiala's greatest challenges involve negotiating between the five coalition partners and restoring respectability to Czech politics. Impacts The new government will be less sceptical about closer EU integration, given the upcoming Czech EU presidency from mid-2022. The government will try to reopen EU Green Deal chapters to renegotiate compensation for highly industrialised member states. Former Prime Minister Andrej Babis may run for president in 2023. Babis will strive to avoid losing parliamentary immunity from prosecution relating to the Stork’s Nest affair and alleged EU subsidy fraud.

Economic demise set to continue, but farming is a hope

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Political Implications ◽  
External Demand ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The hryvnia crisis, which has seen the currency's value plummet, has deepened. However, as reported by Reuters, the NBU decision was suddenly reversed following heavy criticism from Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who said the move was bad for the economy. Overall, Ukraine's economy continues to be weak and vulnerable to shocks. The local economy had already been struggling for most of 2012-13, owing largely to weak external demand and deteriorating trade relations with Russia. However, the political turmoil that the country found itself in soon after the February 2014 change of power exacerbated these troubles significantly. Impacts Continued economic decline will prompt the government to take new unpopular belt-tightening measures in order to get international aid. Rapid economic reforms increase the risk of mass social discontent with far-reaching political implications. Should key merchandise exports fall further, producers could face an effective loss of their main markets.

Fast growth may avert foreign banks' exit from Hungary

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Government Relations ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for the banking sector. Significance The government is buying a 30% stake in the Austrian lender Erste Bank under a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The MoU signifies a volte-face by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose relationship with foreign-owned banks has been fraught with difficulties since the imposition of a levy on financial institutions in 2010 that drove down earnings and achieved notoriety as one of the highest taxes of its kind in Europe. The government has pledged to reduce the bank tax during 2016-19. Impacts The MoU may not redefine government relations with foreign banks, but could mean more activity on the market by institutional investors. Banks will clean up balance sheets, adopting a 'wait and see' strategy until FX debt relief peters out and the bank tax starts to fall. A return to profitability is unlikely before 2016; much depends on an uptake in corporate and household loans denominated in local currency.

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