Forecasting Hierarchical Time Series in Power Generation

Academic attention is being paid to the study of hierarchical time series. Especially in the electrical sector, there are several applications in which information can be organized into a hierarchical structure. The present study analyzed hourly power generation in Brazil (2018–2020), grouped according to each of the electrical subsystems and their respective sources of generating energy. The objective was to calculate the accuracy of the main measures of aggregating and disaggregating the forecasts of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Error, Trend, Seasonal (ETS) models. Specifically, the following hierarchical approaches were analyzed: (i) bottom-up (BU), (ii) top-down (TD), and (iii) optimal reconciliation. The optimal reconciliation models showed the best mean performance, considering the primary predictive windows. It was also found that energy forecasts in the South subsystem presented greater inaccuracy compared to the others, which signals the need for individualized models for this subsystem.

Realidad actual del sector eléctrico ecuatoriano

The present work has as objective to make an approximation to the description of the Ecuadorian electrical sector, in its beginnings of creation and conformation until its current reality, to contextualize the Ecuadorian electric panorama. In this sector, it will modernize according to new technological trends that seek to optimize the use of natural resources to provide electric power service with the responsibility and regulations required for the care of the environment. Index Terms— electric market, economic deficit, electricity generation, new technologies.