scholarly journals Party at the Mailbox: Mobilizing Black Voters with Celebrations of Community

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashley Daniels ◽  
Stephanie DeMora ◽  
Sarah Hayes ◽  
Melissa Michelson
Keyword(s):  
Black Girls ◽  
Group Consciousness ◽  
Baltimore City ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Black Voters

In early 2020 Black Girls Vote, Inc. (BGV) created an initiative to deliver customized locally-themed voter engagement boxes to Baltimore city residents. The pilot Party at the Mailbox (PATM) effort for the June 2020 primary was enormously successful, increasing turnout by 3.5 percentage points overall and by 12.4 percentage points among low-propensity members of households where boxes were delivered. We continued to partner with BGV for the fall general elections as they again worked to increase turnout in Baltimore and also expanded to Detroit and Philadelphia, and for the January 2021 U.S. Senate runoff election in Atlanta. We conclude that PATM works because it cultivates a spirit of celebration about voting that capitalizes on Black group consciousness and Black attitudes about the power of the vote.

scholarly journals Party at the Mailbox: Mobilizing Black Voters with Celebrations of Community

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashley Daniels ◽  
Stephanie DeMora ◽  
Sarah Hayes ◽  
Melissa Michelson
Keyword(s):  
Black Girls ◽  
Group Consciousness ◽  
Baltimore City ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Black Voters

In early 2020 Black Girls Vote, Inc. (BGV) created an initiative to deliver customized locally-themed voter engagement boxes to Baltimore city residents. The pilot Party at the Mailbox (PATM) effort for the June 2020 primary was enormously successful, increasing turnout by 3.5 percentage points overall and by 12.4 percentage points among low-propensity members of households where boxes were delivered. We continued to partner with BGV for the fall general elections as they again worked to increase turnout in Baltimore and also expanded to Detroit and Philadelphia, and for the January 2021 U.S. Senate runoff election in Atlanta. We conclude that PATM works because it cultivates a spirit of celebration about voting that capitalizes on Black group consciousness and Black attitudes about the power of the vote.

scholarly journals Candidate name order effects in New Hampshire: Evidence from primaries and from general elections with party column ballots

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0248049
Author(s):  
Bo MacInnis ◽  
Joanne M. Miller ◽  
Jon A. Krosnick ◽  
Clifton Below ◽  
Miriam Lindner
Keyword(s):  
New Hampshire ◽  
Political Engagement ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Major Party ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Primacy Effects ◽  
First Time

Research in a few U.S. states has shown that candidates listed first on ballots gain extra votes as a result. This study explored name order effects for the first time in New Hampshire, where such effects might be weak or entirely absent because of high political engagement and the use of party column ballots. In general elections (in 2012 and 2016) for federal offices and the governorship and in primaries (in 2000, 2002, and 2004), evidence of primacy effects appeared in 86% of the 84 tests, including the 2016 presidential race, when Donald Trump gained 1.7 percentage points from first listing, and Hillary Clinton gained 1.5 percentage points. Consistent with theoretical predictions, primacy effects were larger in primaries and for major-party candidates in general elections than for non-major-party candidates in general elections, more pronounced in less publicized contests, and stronger in contests without an incumbent running. All of this constitutes evidence of the reliability and generalizability of evidence on candidate name order effects and their moderators.

scholarly journals What Happens When Extremists Win Primaries?

2015 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANDREW B. HALL
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
General Election ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Legislative Behavior ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
Primary Election ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The U.S

This article studies the interplay of U.S. primary and general elections. I examine how the nomination of an extremist changes general-election outcomes and legislative behavior in the U.S. House, 1980–2010, using a regression discontinuity design in primary elections. When an extremist—as measured by primary-election campaign receipt patterns—wins a “coin-flip” election over a more moderate candidate, the party’s general-election vote share decreases on average by approximately 9–13 percentage points, and the probability that the party wins the seat decreases by 35–54 percentage points. This electoral penalty is so large that nominating the more extreme primary candidate causes the district’s subsequent roll-call representation to reverse, on average, becoming more liberal when an extreme Republican is nominated and more conservative when an extreme Democrat is nominated. Overall, the findings show how general-election voters act as a moderating filter in response to primary nominations.

Party Leaders and Election Outcomes in Britain, 1974-1983

1987 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 484-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
BRIAN GRAETZ ◽  
IAN McALLISTER
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Status ◽  
Mass Media ◽  
Political Attitudes ◽  
Multivariate Techniques ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Party Attachment

It is often suggested that British general elections are becoming more presidential in character, particularly with the increasing emphasis placed by mass media on the character and activities of party leaders. To date, however, there have been few attempts to estimate how much of an effect leaders have on election outcomes, independently of partisan ties. This article uses multivariate techniques to examine the factors that influence a leader's popularity and estimates the effect of leaders on electoral outcomes in Britain in 1974, 1979, and 1983. The results suggest, first, that the popularity of leaders depends on party attachment, political attitudes, and socioeconomic status. Second, both attitudes and the popularity of leaders are influential in determining whether or not voters will defect, with leaders becoming relatively more important in this regard in the 1983 election. Finally, changes in the popularity of party leaders are capable of influencing an election result by a few percentage points, but in none of the three elections examined here was the magnitude of such changes sufficient to produce a different election outcome.

scholarly journals Protests, Pandemics, and Political Participation: Voter Turnout in Georgia in the 2020 Elections

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiela Crabtree ◽  
Bernard Fraga
Keyword(s):  
Racial Differences ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
The Self ◽  
Racial Justice ◽  
Election Administration ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Electoral Mobilization ◽  
Vote By Mail ◽  
Black Voters ◽  
Protest Activity

We consider how pandemic-related shifts in election administration and racial justice protest activity impacted participation in 2020 primary and general elections in Georgia. Using a comprehensive statewide voter file, including data on the self-reported race and validated turnout of over 7 million registered Georgians, we analyze the combined effect of these events on racial differences in voter turnout rates, methods, and timing. We find that despite a shift to mail balloting, Black voters were significantly more likely to vote in person during the pandemic than White Democrats. These voters were later less likely to vote by mail (or vote at all) in November. We also demonstrate that Black turnout was significantly higher in the period following racial justice protests in Georgia than it was for other groups. The results of this study indicate how election reforms and non-electoral mobilization can shape turnout disparities even among highly engaged voters.

What are we voting for? Opposition alliance joint campaigns in electoral autocracies

2021 ◽  
pp. 135406882110323
Author(s):  
Elvin Ong
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Voting ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Alliance Formation ◽  
Positive Material ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Ethnographic Observation ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Cross

Existing analyses of opposition pre-electoral alliance formation in electoral autocracies neglect their coordinated election campaigns against incumbent autocrats. This paper argues that opposition alliance joint campaigns can increase the salience of the anti-regime cleavage, signal mutual compromise, and highlight the positive material and policy gains voters will reap following regime defeat. Together, they persuade ideologically and ethnically disparate opposition supporters to engage in the cross-party strategic voting necessary to maximize opposition vote share and their chances of winning. Empirical findings from Malaysia’s historic 2018 general elections support the theory’s propositions. A pre-electoral survey experiment estimates that an opposition alliance’s joint campaigns increases cross-party strategic voting by about 10 percentage points among opposition voters. Field interviews and ethnographic observation during the election campaigning revealed the diverse methods and mechanisms of joint campaigns. Malaysia’s Pakatan Harapan opposition alliance eventually prevailed through a combination of joint campaigning against a flailing incumbent.

scholarly journals Malawi at the Crossroads: Does the Fear of Contracting COVID-19 Affect the Propensity to Vote?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gowokani Chijere Chirwa ◽  
Boniface Dulani ◽  
Lonjezo Sithole ◽  
Joseph J. Chunga ◽  
Witness Alfonso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Political Arena ◽  
Political Processes ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Nationally Representative

AbstractThe new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has paralysed many sectors of human life, including economic, social-cultural and political processes. In the political arena, several countries have postponed elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Other countries, including Malawi, went ahead with their planned elections. Malawi held a presidential election at a time when the number of COVID-19 cases was increasing rapidly. In this paper, we assess the effect of the perceived risk of catching COVID-19 on willingness to vote in the Malawi presidential election that was held on 23 June 2020. Turn out in this election was ten percentage points lower than in the general elections that were held a year earlier. The paper draws on a nationally representative survey of adult Malawians (n = 1155). In our main analysis, we use instrumental variables to account for potential endogeneity. We find that nearly two thirds of Malawians thought that they were likely to catch COVID-19 at some point. Notwithstanding the COVID-19 risk, 86% of the country’s citizens were willing to vote. Our analysis shows that an individual’s perceived risk of catching COVID-19 is associated with a lower likelihood of voting (β = − 0.096; p < 0.05). This suggests that voter turnout in Malawi’s fresh presidential election may have been highly affected by the perceived risk of catching COVID-19. The policy implication is that instituting and enforcing primary preventive measures may help reduce the perceived risk of catching COVID-19 and mitigate voter apathy.

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