Covid-19 Space-time Cluster Detection Using Retrospective Analysis

Background: As of the 31st of January 2021, there had been 102,399,513 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide, with 2,217,005 deaths reported to WHOThe goal of this study is to uncover the spatiotemporal patterns of COVID 19 in Ethiopia, which will aid in the planning and implementation of essential preventative measures. Methods We obtained data on COVID 19 cases reported in Ethiopia from November 23 to December 29, 2021, from an Ethiopian health data website that is open to the public.Kulldorff's retrospective space-time scan statistics were utilized to detect the temporal, geographical, and spatiotemporal clusters of COVID 19 at the county level in Ethiopia, using the discrete Poisson probability model. Results: In Ethiopia, between November 23 and December 29, 2021, a total of 22,199 COVID 19 cases were reported.The COVID 19 cases in Ethiopia were strongly clustered in spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal distribution, according to the results of Kulldorff's scan. statisticsThe most likely Spatio-temporal cluster (LLR = 70369.783209, RR = 412.48, P 0.001) was mostly concentrated in Addis Ababa and clustered between 2021/11/1 and 2021/11/30.Conclusion: From November 23 to December 29, 2021, this study found three large COVID 19 space-time clusters in Ethiopia, which could aid in future resource allocation in high-risk locations for COVID 19 management and prevention.

Time course of EEG power during creative problem-solving with insight or remote thinking

Problem-solving often requires creativity and is critical in everyday life. However, the neurocognitive mechanisms underlying creative problem-solving remain poorly understood. Two mechanisms have been highlighted: forming new connections from and between the problem elements and insight solving (with a sudden realization of a solution). We examined EEG activity during an adapted version of a classical insight problem task, the Remote Associates Test, that requires finding a word connecting three words. It allowed us to explore remoteness in semantic connections (by varying the remoteness of the solution word across trials) and insight solving (identified as a "Eureka" moment reported by the participants). Semantic remoteness was associated with a power increase in alpha band (8-12Hz) in a left parieto-temporal cluster, beta band (13-30Hz) in a right fronto-temporal cluster in the early phase of the task, and theta band (3-7Hz) in frontal cluster before the participants responded. Insight solving was associated with power increase preceding the response in alpha and gamma band (31-60Hz) in left temporal clusters and theta band in a frontal cluster. Source reconstructions show the brain regions associated with these clusters. Overall, our findings shed new light on the dynamic of some of the mechanisms involved in creative problem-solving.

Implementation of a national waterborne disease outbreak surveillance system: overview and preliminary results, France, 2010 to 2019

Background Waterborne disease outbreaks (WBDO) associated with tap water consumption are probably underestimated in France. Aim In order to improve their detection, Santé publique France launched a surveillance system in 2019, based on the periodical analysis of health insurance data for medicalised acute gastroenteritis (mAGE). Methods Spatio-temporal cluster detection methods were applied to mAGE cases to prioritise clusters for further investigation. These investigations determined the plausibility that infection is of waterborne origin and the strength of association. Results Between January 2010 and December 2019, 3,323 priority clusters were detected (53,878 excess mAGE cases). They involved 3,717 drinking water supply zones (WSZ), 15.4% of all French WSZ. One third of these WSZ (33.4%; n = 1,242 WSZ) were linked to repeated clusters. Moreover, our system detected 79% of WBDO voluntarily notified to health authorities. Conclusion Environmental investigations of detected clusters are necessary to determine the plausibility that infection is of waterborne origin. Consequently, they contribute to identifying which WSZ are linked to clusters and for which specific actions are needed to avoid future outbreaks. The surveillance system incorporates three priority elements: linking environmental investigations with water safety plan management, promoting the systematic use of rainfall data to assess waterborne origin, and focusing on repeat clusters. In the absence of an alternative clear hypothesis, the occurrence of a mAGE cluster in a territory completely matching a distribution zone indicates a high plausibility of water origin.

Shaking in the Southeastern United States: Examining Earthquakes and Blasts in the Central Georgia–South Carolina Seismic Region

Seismicity in the southeastern United States is relatively poorly characterized and thus not well understood. Structures and heterogeneities from multiple stages of Appalachian orogenesis, continental rifting, and magmatism as well as rivers and reservoirs may be influencing seismic activity in the region, but previous constraints are limited. The addition of seismic stations from the U.S. Transportable Array and the Southeastern Suture of the Appalachian Margin Experiment Array in 2012–2014 provide an opportunity to characterize seismicity in the central Georgia–South Carolina region. We develop a seismic catalog of >1000 events from March 2012 to May 2014 within or near the instrument array boundaries 30.1°–35.2°N, 80.9°– 85.7°W. Many of the events detected were industrial blasts, so multiple strategies were tested to discriminate between earthquakes and blasts based on event locations, timing, and spectral amplitude of the P and S arrivals. Based on this analysis, ∼10% of the events in the catalog were classified as earthquakes. Most earthquakes southeast of the eastern Tennessee seismic zone are located in the Carolina terrane, particularly where the Carolina terrane intersects major rivers or reservoirs. One prominent region of seismicity along the Savannah River near Thurmond Lake corresponds with an ∼4.5 m rise in water levels in 2013. A temporal cluster of earthquakes in April 2013 was followed by increased levels of ambient seismicity preceding the nearby Mw 4.1 earthquake in 2014. Focal mechanisms based on first-motion polarities indicate strike-slip to oblique-thrust motion on structures trending approximately north–south or east–west, and a maximum horizontal stress orientation consistent with the regional trend of ∼N60°E, implying that seismicity may reactivate more optimally oriented structures in the Carolina terrane that are oblique to the trend of the Appalachians. Seismicity in central Georgia appears to be controlled by a complex interaction between preexisting crustal structure and hydrologic variability.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Plasmodium knowlesi Malaria in Sarawak from 2008 to 2017

Zoonotic knowlesi malaria has replaced human malaria as the most prevalent malaria disease in Malaysia. The persistence of knowlesi malaria in high-risk transmission areas or hotspots can be discouraging to existing malaria elimination efforts. In this study, retrospective data of laboratory-confirmed knowlesi malaria cases were obtained from the Sarawak Health Department to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and clustering of knowlesi malaria in the state of Sarawak from 2008 to 2017. Purely spatial, purely temporal, and spatiotemporal analyses were performed using SaTScan software to define clustering of knowlesi malaria incidence. Purely spatial and spatiotemporal analyses indicated most likely clusters of knowlesi malaria in the northern region of Sarawak, along the Sarawak–Kalimantan border, and the inner central region of Sarawak between 2008 and 2017. Temporal cluster was detected between September 2016 and December 2017. This study provides evidence of the existence of statistically significant Plasmodium knowlesi malaria clusters in Sarawak, Malaysia. The analysis approach applied in this study showed potential in establishing surveillance and risk management system for knowlesi malaria control as Malaysia approaches human malaria elimination.

Spatio-temporal analysis of influenza-like illness and prediction of incidence in high-risk regions, in the United States from 2011 to 2020

Introduction: About 8% of Americans get influenza during an average season from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States. It is necessary to strengthen the early warning of influenza and the prediction of public health. Methods In this study, we analyzed the characteristics of Influenza-like Illness (ILI) by Geographic Information System and SARIMA model, respectively. Spatio-temporal cluster analysis detected 23 clusters of ILI during the study period. Results The highest incidence of ILI was mainly concentrated in the states of Louisiana, District of Columbia and Virginia. The Local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed the High-High cluster was mainly located in Louisiana and Mississippi. This means that if the influenza incidence is high in Louisiana and Mississippi, the neighboring states will also have higher influenza incidence rates. The regression model SARIMA(1, 0, 0)(1, 1, 0)52 with statistical significance was obtained to forecast the ILI incidence of Mississippi. Conclusions The study showed, the ILI incidence will begin to increase in the 45th week 2020 and peak in the 6th week 2021. To conclude, notable epidemiological differences were observed across states, indicating that some states should pay more attention to prevent and control respiratory infectious diseases.

Seismic control of large prehistoric rockslides in the Eastern Alps

Large prehistoric rockslides tend to occur within spatio-temporal clusters suggesting a common trigger such as earthquake shaking or enhanced wet periods. Yet, trigger assessment remains equivocal due to the lack of conclusive observational evidence. Here, we use high-resolution lacustrine paleoseismology to evaluate the relation between past seismicity and a spatio-temporal cluster of large prehistoric rockslides in the Eastern Alps. Temporal and spatial coincidence of paleoseismic evidence with multiple rockslides at ~4.1 and ~3.0 ka BP reveals that severe earthquakes (local magnitude ML5.5–6.5; epicentral intensity I0VIII¼–X¾) have triggered these rockslides. A series of preceding severe earthquakes is likely to have progressively weakened these rock slopes towards critical state. These findings elucidate the role of seismicity in preparing and triggering large prehistoric rockslides in the European Alps, where rockslides and earthquakes typically occur in clusters. Such integration of multiple datasets in other formerly glaciated regions with low to moderate seismicity will improve our understanding of catastrophic rockslide drivers.