Risk analysis model and agricultural derivative market use

This research aims to build conceptual guidelines regarding price risk management through the agricultural derivatives market. Specifically, to identify the common price risk management methods and strategies employed, the risk analysis models of derivative markets, and the barriers to agricultural risk management. This is an integrative review, the search for literature on the models of risk management analysis of agricultural derivatives started by listing the largest possible number of keywords on the topic, in the Scopus and Web of Science. Forty-five publications were found meeting the pre-established criteria that served as the basis for this research. Based on the literature review, we list the main information on the subject and we also propose a theoretical model for analyzing the market risks of agricultural derivatives. Still, it was possible to notice that among the methodologies for measuring market risk, Value at Risk (VaR) stands out. We exemplify and demonstrate the existence of several statistical analyzes and mathematical models, as well as software available for the management of price risks. It is concluded that strategies with the futures and options market, even though they are the most efficient for risk management, lack incentives to become practical.

Market efficiency and price risk management of agricultural commodity prices in India

Purpose Market efficiency leads to transparent and fair price discovery of commodity markets, thus enhancing the value chain for competitive benefit. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the market efficiency of Indian agricultural commodities at spot, futures and mandi markets apart from exploring price risk management in these markets. Design/methodology/approach This study uses Johansen co-integration, vector error correction model and granger causality for analyzing market efficiency of the nine most liquid agricultural commodities across three markets, namely, spot, futures and mandi. All these nine commodities are traded on National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange. Findings The statistical results indicate price discovery exists in the mandi market and spot market leading to futures prices. Mandi price returns are seen to negatively influence futures returns in the case of cotton seed, guar seed and spot returns in the case of jeera, coriander and chana. For castor seed, the three markets are seen to have no long run relationship. The results of Granger causality reveal short run relationship between all the three markets in the case of soybean seed and coriander. In these commodities, prices in all three markets are capable of predicting the prices in the other markets. For the case of cottonseed, Rape Mustard seed, jeera, guar seed, the results indicate unidirectional causality between the mandi markets and the other two markets. Research limitations/implications These results shall facilitate policymakers to explore intervention through integrated agri-platform (IAP) in price discovery and market efficiency. Practical implications The results of this study are useful in understanding the price discovery of mandi markets and its role in the spot and futures market. Agricultural commodities price discovery depends upon the integration of all these three markets. Introduction of IAP as described in the paper shall facilitate price risk management apart from improving the efficiency of price discovery. Originality/value To the best of the knowledge, this is the first study considering mandi, spot and futures prices in the price discovery process in India. In addition, this study found the role of mandi markets in serving the economic function of price discovery and price risk management. Hence, suggests for policy intervention for Indian agricultural commodities to manage price risk.

Price discovery and market efficiency of cardamom in India

Purpose Transparent and fair price discovery is essential to commodity market participants in the trade value chain for competitive benefit. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the price discovery of Indian cardamom at e-auction, spot and futures markets in addition to the existence of the day of the week effect at e-auction apart from exploring a novel price risk management framework. Design/methodology/approach This study used Johansen co-integration, vector error correction model, Granger causality and regression with dummy variables to understand a day of the week effect in high-value agri-commodity of cardamom e-auction prices. These price data were based on authenticated sources of Spices Board India and Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. Findings The statistical results indicate price discovery exists in the e-auction market and it leads to spot and futures prices. cardamom e-auction prices are negatively related to cardamom futures and positively related to spot prices. It also finds the non-existence of the day of the week effect in the high-value cardamom e-auction system in India. The study revealed that a cardamom e-auction is more active in price discovery than a cardamom futures contract. Research limitations/implications These results shall facilitate policymakers to explore intervention of online forward market mechanism at the national level to ensure price discovery and market efficiency. However, the study did not explore reasons for the non-equilibrium of a cardamom futures contract with spot and e-auction market. Practical implications The results of this study are useful in understanding the price discovery of cardamom e-auction and its role in the spot and futures market. Cardamom price discovery depends upon the e-auction system; any change of auction policy shall be binding on Indian cardamom prices. The introduction of an online forward market mechanism as described in the paper shall facilitate price risk management apart from improving the efficiency of price discovery. Originality/value This is the first study considering cardamom e-auction, spot and futures prices in the price discovery process in India. Statistical results of a day of the week effect clearly show no significant volatility of cardamom prices during the week. Besides, this study did not find the role of cardamom futures contracts intended to serve the economic function of price discovery and price risk management. Hence, suggests policy intervention for implementing an online Forward Market mechanism for Indian cardamom to ensure market efficiency and manage price risk.

Indian Agri-Commodities Markets: A Review of Transition Toward Futures

By using indications given by the commodity markets, farmers, growers, or producers can minimize the price risk and avoid a supply gut. The consumers of the output can minimize the price risk and ensure that the demand pressure is appropriately capped. It was in this backdrop that farmers and food grain merchants initiated futures markets in agri-commodities. This article has been successful in documenting the evolution of agri-commodities futures markets in India and their regulatory framework. It also captures the transition toward agri-commodities futures by engaging in a comprehensive survey of extant literature. The market growth analysis indicates that the transition toward agri-commodities futures markets has enabled price discovery and better price risk management. While ensuring price risk mitigation and remunerative returns, these markets also contribute to scaling down the downside risks associated with agricultural lending and, thereby, facilitate the flow of credit to agriculture. Further, they also hold a key role not only in reinvigorating the spot markets but also in triggering the diversified growth of Indian agriculture in line with the consumption pattern. Thus, enabling policies need to be put in place to strengthen the agri-commodities futures markets by streamlining the supply chain.

Price risk management in the wheat market using option strategies

Recently, the agricultural business is displayed a greater amount of risk because of price volatility growth. Consequently, it is necessary to have knowledge of how to regulate the risk of price fluctuations. This paper is concerned with the hedging techniques in the commodity market by the help of vanilla options. The main idea is to analyze option strategies with the ambition to demonstrate their utilization by hedging against increasing prices. Hedged buying price formulas are derived for every spot futures price. An additional contribution is considered for applying in the wheat trading. Chicago Mercantile Exchange products, i.e. wheat options on futures are investigated. The profitability of hedged scenarios is examined. A comparative analysis of the designed hedging variants is presented. Suggestions for potential wheat buyers are proposed.

Price risk management by using dynamic hedging based on advanced Black–Scholes model

Price Risk Management plays an important role in Commodity trading and corporate purchasing or Sales plan. Futures are used to hedge the price risk which is linear, while options are used for the nonlinear one. This paper proposes an evaluation method of dynamic hedging strategy for corporate hedging commodity price risk based on advanced Black–Scholes Model. By using the inverse replication method, we get the dynamic hedging strategy which uses futures to replicate options. Finally, we apply the dynamic hedging strategy for corporate purchases and sales to either lower purchase cost or maintain the sales price.