agricultural risk
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2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2508-2534
Author(s):  
João Batista Ferreira ◽  
Luiz Gonzaga Castro Junior

This research aims to build conceptual guidelines regarding price risk management through the agricultural derivatives market. Specifically, to identify the common price risk management methods and strategies employed, the risk analysis models of derivative markets, and the barriers to agricultural risk management. This is an integrative review, the search for literature on the models of risk management analysis of agricultural derivatives started by listing the largest possible number of keywords on the topic, in the Scopus and Web of Science. Forty-five publications were found meeting the pre-established criteria that served as the basis for this research.  Based on the literature review, we list the main information on the subject and we also propose a theoretical model for analyzing the market risks of agricultural derivatives. Still, it was possible to notice that among the methodologies for measuring market risk, Value at Risk (VaR) stands out. We exemplify and demonstrate the existence of several statistical analyzes and mathematical models, as well as software available for the management of price risks. It is concluded that strategies with the futures and options market, even though they are the most efficient for risk management, lack incentives to become practical.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 194-200
Author(s):  
Van Thi Thuy Hoang

This study focuses on analyzing the risks that affect in agricultural production and response of farmers. Research data was collected in Nghe An, Vietnam with 200 samples, audited by Binary Logistic Model. The research results show that the main risks affecting agriculture in Nghe An are mainly weather risks, pest risks and economic risks. And to cope with those risks, farmers have chosen a number of response measures, based on the support of the government, that have yielded clear results. The study provides empirical evidence on the current situation of risk identification and how to choose to respond to risks in agriculture, offering solutions to help improve the agricultural risk management framework in Nghe An, Vietnam.


Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (23) ◽  
pp. 3061
Author(s):  
Alina Evelyn Badillo-Márquez ◽  
Alberto Alfonso Aguilar-Lasserre ◽  
Marco Augusto Miranda-Ackerman ◽  
Oscar Osvaldo Sandoval-González ◽  
Daniel Villanueva-Vásquez ◽  
...  

In recent years, there have been significant changes in weather patterns, mainly caused by sharp increases in temperature, increases in carbon dioxide, and fluctuations in precipitation levels, negatively impacting agricultural production. Agricultural systems are characterized by being vulnerable to the variation of biophysical and socioeconomic factors involved in the development of agricultural activities. Agent-based models (ABMs) enable the study, analysis, and management of ecosystems through their ability to represent networks and their spatial nature. In this research, an ABM is developed to evaluate the behavior and determine the vulnerability in the sugarcane agricultural system; allowing the capitalization of knowledge through characteristics such as social ability and autonomy of the modeled agents through fuzzy logic and system dynamics. The methodology used includes information networks for a dynamic assessment of agricultural risk modeled by time series, system dynamics, uncertain parameters, and experience; which are developed in three stages: vulnerability indicators, crop vulnerability, and total system vulnerability. The development of ABM, a greater impact on the environmental contingency is noted due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and the exponential increase in extreme meteorological phenomena threatening the cultivation of sugarcane, making the agricultural sector more vulnerable and reducing the yield of the harvest.


2021 ◽  
Vol LXII (2) ◽  
pp. 46-52
Author(s):  
Annie Dimitrova ◽  

Implementations of innovations in the agrarian sector would contribute to better risk management in the sector. Through the new achievements of science and the use of innovative methods and technologies, the stability of the sector can be increased as the farmer will be able to control the crisis processes and minimize unforeseen circumstances that can cause damage to the production in the farm. The purpose of the report is to identify and classify innovative practices and models to minimize the risk in the agrarian sector, particularly those suitable for small farms, and to summarize with the help of a survey of farmers' attitudes towards introducing innovations in their farms through which to limit the risk. The publication is based on the results of Project NI-16/2018 "Integrated approach to risk management in the agrarian sector" and is part of the dissemination of dissertation results in the field of innovation.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elise N Grover ◽  
Sara Paull ◽  
Katerina Kechris ◽  
Andrea G Buchwald ◽  
Katherine James ◽  
...  

Background Bovines have been repeatedly highlighted as a major reservoir for human Schistosoma japonicum infection in rural farming villages in China. However, little is known about the individual and environmental risk factors for bovine schistosomiasis infection. The current body of literature on individual-level risk factors features inconsistent, and sometimes contradictory results, and to date, few studies have assessed the broader environmental conditions that predict bovine schistosomiasis. Methodology/Principal Findings Using data collected as a part of a longitudinal study in 39 rural villages in Sichuan, China from 2007 to 2016, we aimed to identifying the strongest individual, household and village-level predictors of bovine S. japonicum infection. Candidate predictors for this assessment included: 1) physical/biological characteristics of bovines, 2) potential human sources of environmental schistosomes, 3) socio-economic indicators, 4) potential animal reservoirs, and 5) agricultural risk factors. A Random Forests machine learning approach was used to determine which of our candidate predictors serve as the best predictors of bovine schistosomiasis infection in each survey year. Of the five categories of predictors, high-risk agricultural practices and animal reservoirs, specifically, bovine density at the village-level, were repeatedly found to be among the top predictors of bovine S. japonicum infection. Conclusion/Significance Our findings highlight the potential utility of presumptively treating bovines residing in villages and households that engage in high-risk agricultural practices, or bovines belonging to villages with particularly high levels of bovine ownership. Additionally, village-level predictors were stronger predictors of bovine infection than household-level predictors, suggesting future investigations and interventions may need to apply a broad ecological lens in order to successfully extricate and address environmental sources of ongoing transmission.


Author(s):  
Susanne Hanger-Kopp ◽  
Marlene Palka

AbstractDrought has become a dominant climate risk both around the world and in Europe, adding to the already challenging task of farming and governing the agricultural sector under climate change. Drought risk management is extremely complex. Apart from irrigation, most drought risk management options have more than one goal and may potentially have negative trade-offs with other risk management objectives. Moreover, government regulations and market mechanisms influence farmers’ decision-making. However, previous studies, both in developed and in developing countries, have predominantly focused on attitudinal and structural influencing factors on farmers’ risk management behavior. In this paper, we comprehensively investigate farmers’ decision spaces with respect to drought risk management. We address two applied research questions: (1) What are farmers’ preferred drought risk management measures? (2) From a farmer’s perspective, what are the dominant factors influencing drought risk management decisions? We find that farmers primarily think of production-based rather than financial measures with respect to drought risk management. At the same time, natural and technical constraints and enabling factors dominate their mental decision space, followed by public and private institutional aspects. This research provides a basis for the design of integrated and holistic drought risk management policy and the drought risk governance needed for sustainable use of land and water resources such as needed to address systemic risks and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Moreover, we introduce a novel approach using mental models extracted from interviews to explore cognitive representations of farmers' decision spaces. This approach has the potential to complement mainstream research using standardized surveys and behavioral models to analyze drivers of risk management.


AGROFOR ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea MARKOS

Modern Portfolio Theory provides a theoretical framework for agricultural risk reduction. Powerful yet accessible tools have been developed to optimize scarce capital/labor allocation to increase returns and reduce correlated risks via diversification. Such tools are used to assess rural livelihood diversification induced by an incentive-based program for watershed conservation piloted between 2003 and 2011 in a context of rural poverty in Bolivia. The tools assembled and tested in this study may provide low-cost diagnostics to improve implementers’ understanding of risks and returns in a specific rural context. Comparing alternative portfolio frontiers may represent a useful and transformative tool to understand socio-ecological systems such as watersheds, facilitating regime shifts that benefit ecosystem services and livelihoods.


2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abi Haro ◽  
Alma Mendoza-Ponce ◽  
Óscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada

Evidence suggests that climate change could drastically reduce Mexico's agricultural productivity with severe socio-ecological consequences. Population growth and the increasing demand of resources will exacerbate these impacts. Focusing on rainfed maize production, we evaluate the socio-ecological risk that municipalities currently face and how climate change could modify it. Municipalities were classified based on their biophysical and socioeconomic traits like temperature, precipitation, population, gross domestic product, marginalization, and agricultural subsidies. The study identifies municipalities that would face higher risk under climate change conditions, and it evaluates whether increases in agricultural subsidies could be effective for reducing the farmers' future risk. Our results show that during the 2010's, 36.8% of the municipalities and 15% of the population were at very high and high risk, respectively. By 2070, under a high-warming scenario these figures increase to 56.5 and 18.5%. We find that a generalized augment in agricultural subsidies is not enough to compensate for the effects of climate change on the socio-ecological risk of rainfed maize producers. We suggest that transformative adaptation is required for managing the agricultural risk that socio-ecological systems experience under climate change conditions. Such adaptation strategies should include poverty alleviation, promotion of resistant and native varieties of crops, capacity building to improve management and water use, sustainable technification, and soil restoration.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irene Litvan ◽  
James A. Proudfoot ◽  
Eden R. Martin ◽  
David Standaert ◽  
David Riley ◽  
...  

Several genetic and environmental factors have been reported in progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP), although none were identified as a definitive cause. We aimed to explore potential gene-environment interactions in PSP. Two hundred and ninety two PSP cases and 292 controls matched for age, sex, and race from the ENGENE-PSP were analyzed to determine the association between PSP and minor alleles of 5 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 4 genes (MAPT, MOBP, EIF2AK3, and STX6), which were previously associated with PSP risk. Interactions between these SNPs and environmental factors, including previously reported occupational and agricultural risk factors for PSP, were assessed for PSP odds and age of symptom onset. Minor alleles of MAPTrs242557 and EIF2AK3rs7571971 were individually associated with increased odds; MAPTrs8070723 minor alleles were associated with lower PSP odds. There were several gene-environment interactions for PSP odds and age of symptom onset, however, they did not remain significant after FDR-correction. Larger scale studies are required to determine potential interactions.


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