Volatility Factors of Returns and Risk Analysis Using Quantile Risk Measures in the Gold and Silver Market

The aim of the paper is to identify unobservable factors that may significantly determine the level of gold and silver returns and to assess the risk of investment in these metals. To measure risk, the value at risk and other, less popular measures are used: the ES, MS, Rachev ratio and GlueVaR risk measure. Normal and Student’s t‑distributions are used as theoretical distributions. The results of the study show that we can identify latent factors based on observable variables that have a significant impact on the level of gold and silver returns. In addition, it was observed that the risk measures would vary depending on the period of research. It was shown that the estimates of the risk measures using Student’s t‑distribution have a lower estimation error than those based on the normal distribution.

Gender Differences in Child Malnutrition in Ethiopia: Evidence from Three Decomposition Techniques

Ethiopia has one of the highest under-five child mortality rate in the world, which is higher for boys than for girls. Malnutrition is a major contributing factor to child mortality and that is why we assess the differences in child malnutrition status of boys and girls. Specifically, we study the extent to which the gender differences in malnutrition are associated with observable factors and socio-economic characteristics and to what extent these differences are unexplained and attributable to factors such as latent parental preferences, societal biases, and other unobservable factors. We use data from the Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey and evaluate three anthropometric status measures – wasting, stunting, and being underweight. We utilize a reduced-form demand for nutrition framework and several decomposition techniques: Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition for non-linear models, Machado-Mata quantile decomposition, and the recentered influence function. The results indicate that measurable socioeconomic and locational characteristics have significant and plausible associations with malnutrition by gender. We also find that 3% to 4% of the difference in the anthropometric status may be attributable to unobservable factors that may include implicit parental preferences. This approach is useful in evaluating gender differences in other human capital development outcomes such as health and education, as well as those in malnutrition.

Esports Agents with a Theory of Mind: Towards Better Engagement, Education, and Engineering

The role of AI in esports is shifting from leveraging games as a testbed for improving AI algorithms to addressing the needs of the esports players such as enhancing their gaming experience, esports skills, and providing coaching. For AI to be able to effectively address such needs in esports, AI agents require a theory of mind, that is, the ability to infer players' tactics and intents. To that end, in this position paper, we argue for human-in-the-loop approaches for the discovery and computational embedding of the theory of mind within behavioral models of esports players. We discuss that such approaches can be enabled by player-centric investigations on situated cognition that will expand our understanding of the cognitive and other unobservable factors that influence esports players' behaviors. We conclude by discussing the implications of such a research direction in esports as well as broader implications in engineering design and design education.

Gender pay gap in Vietnam: a propensity score matching analysis

PurposeThis paper investigates the extent, the determinants and the change in the gender pay gap in Vietnam in the period 2010–2016 in order to provide suggestions for policy adjustment to narrow gender pay inequality more effectively.Design/methodology/approachThis study employs the propensity score matching (PSM) method to examine inequality in pay between female and male earners sharing identical characteristics. The analysis is conducted for both the full sample and various characteristic-based subsamples. This procedure is conducted for 2010 and 2016 separately to discover the change in gap and inequality during this period.FindingsThe matching results based on the data sets taken from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) 2010 and 2016 affirm that gender income inequality in Vietnam, though persisted, decreased significantly in 2016 compared to 2010, and was insignificant in many subsamples in 2016. In addition to the observable determinants including educational level, occupation, economic sector and industry, unobservable factors are proved to also play an important role in creating the gender pay gap in Vietnam.Practical implicationsThe research findings suggest that policies aimed at mitigating gender pay inequality should take into account both observable characteristics and unobservable factors such as unobservable gender differences that affect wages and gender discrimination in pay.Originality/valueThis is the first study using a matching technique to investigate gender wage gap in Vietnam. With up-to-date data, longer research period and the superiority of the method used in dealing with sample selection bias, the results obtained are more robust, more detailed and reliable.

How Does Rural–Urban Migration Experience Affect Arable Land Use? Evidence from 2293 Farmers in China

Return migrants play an increasingly important role in agricultural production in China and other developing countries. However, the effect of rural–urban migration experience on farmers’ arable land use remains unclear. This study aims to fill this gap using data from a survey of 2293 farmers consisting of 586 return migrants and 1707 non-migrants in China. We employ the treatment effects model to account for the self-selectivity of rural–urban migration experience arising from observable and unobservable factors. The results show that after accounting for the self-selectivity bias, the rural–urban migration experience significantly increases farmers’ arable land use by 22%. Meanwhile, the positive effect of rural–urban migration experience on arable land use differs by farmers’ age group and region. While rural–urban migration experience increases arable land use for farmers aged below 65 years old by 29%, it shows no significant effect on arable land use for farmers aged 65 years old and above. In addition, there is a positive relationship between rural–urban migration experience and arable land use in Shaanxi, Shandong, and Zhejiang. However, there is no significant effect of rural–urban migration experience on arable land use. On such a basis, we discuss several important implications for policies related to arable land use in China.

Customer Supercharging in Experience-Centric Channels

We conjecture that for online retailers, experience-centric offline store formats do not simply expand market coverage, but rather, serve to significantly amplify future positive customer behaviors, both online and offline. We term this phenomenon “supercharging” and test our thesis using data from a digital-first men’s apparel retailer and a pioneer of the so-called zero inventory store (ZIS) format—a small-footprint, experience-centric retail location that carries no inventory for immediate fulfillment, but fulfils orders via e-commerce. Using a risk-set matching approach, we calibrate our estimates on customers who are “treated,” that is, have a ZIS experience, and matched with identical customers who shop online only. We find that after the ZIS experience, customers spend more, shop at a higher velocity, and are less likely to return items. The positive impact on returns is doubly virtuous as it is more pronounced for more tactile, higher-priced items, thus mitigating a key pain point of online retail. Furthermore, the ZIS shopping experience aids product discovery and brand attachment, causing sales to become more diffuse over a larger number of categories. Finally, we demonstrate that our results are robust to self-selection and potentially confounding effects of unobservable factors on the matched pairs of customers. Implications for retailing practice, including for legacy, offline-first retailers, are discussed. This paper was accepted by Victor Martínez-de-Albéniz, operations management.

Are Economic Distance and Geographic Remoteness Important in Sustainable Trade? Evidence from the Bilateral Trade between China and Kazakhstan

In this study, we investigate sustainable trade between China and Kazakhstan using the gravity model. We find that the distance between the importer and exporter relative to the distance to other trading partners, rather than the absolute distance, significantly negatively impacts trade volumes. Other factors, such as the structure and availability of free trade zones and unobservable factors related to the characteristics of the checkpoints, also affect trade volumes. To obtain these results, we derive an extended gravity model that considers spatial effects and specific features of the trade between China and Kazakhstan. Thus, we contribute to the fundamental foundations of gravity models.

Estimation of Peru’s sovereign yield curve: the role of macroeconomic and latent factors

PurposeFollowing Ang and Piazzesi’s (2003) study, the authors use an affine term structure model to study the relevance of macroeconomic (domestic and foreign) factors for Peru’s sovereign yield curve in the period from November 2005 to December 2015. The paper aims to discuss this issue.Design/methodology/approachRisk premia are modeled as time-varying and depend on both observable and unobservable factors; and the authors estimate a vector autoregressive model considering no-arbitrage assumptions.FindingsThe authors find evidence that macro factors help to improve the fit of the model and explain a substantial amount of variation in bond yields. However, their influence is very sensitive to the specification model. Variance decompositions show that macro factors explain a significant share of the movements at the short and middle segments of the yield curve (up to 50 percent), while unobservable factors are the main drivers for most of the movements at the long end of the yield curve (up to 80 percent). Furthermore, the authors find that international markets are relevant for the determination of the risk premium in the short term. Higher uncertainty in international markets increases bond yields, although this effect vanishes quickly. Finally, the authors find that no-arbitrage restrictions with the incorporation of macro factors improve forecasts.Originality/valueTo the authors’ knowledge this is the first application of this type of models using data from an emerging country such as Peru.

Visible and Invisible Forces. What Drives the Intensity of Trading in the European Carbon Market?

This study models the trading intensity in European Allowances (EUA) futures contracts, in the European Climate Exchange (ECX) using various specifications and investigates the forecasting ability of observable versus unobservable factors. This set up tests empirically the impact of the evolving market structure through regulatory updates and the contribution of the different market participants to the intensity of trading in the European Carbon market. The findings suggest that observable market characteristics capture better the dynamics of trading intensity than their latent counterparts, which implies that regulatory changes that enhance transparency would also improve market efficiency.

Effect of financial knowledge on performance of women farm enterprises in Kenya

PurposeFinancial knowledge (FK) is considered one of the major factors influencing performance of farm enterprises. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of FK on performance of women farm enterprises. Performance is measured using levels of savings and enterprise margins.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses primary data of 384 farmers from three sub-counties in Kericho County, Kenya. It employs a propensity score matching (PSM) approach to control for possible selection bias and to model the impact of FK on performance of women farm enterprises.FindingsThe analysis reveals that high FK has a significant positive impact on performance of women farm enterprises. Specifically, respondents with higher levels of FK were also associated with higher amounts of savings and enterprise margins.Research limitations/implicationsEconometrically, robust strategies were employed using PSM to ensure minimal estimation bias. Although PSM captures selection bias due to observable characteristics, it fails to capture selection bias due to unobservable factors.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to the growing debate on the role played by FK on performance of small and micro enterprises. It provides insights on the state of FK among women farmers and identifies knowledge gaps and policy implications from a developing country perspective.