Mozambique party politics may trump national interest

Significance There is broad consensus that security sector reform is necessary, but lingering concern that the government lacks a coherent plan, and will end up being distracted by other issues. Impacts The economic crisis resulting from the debt crisis will continue to put the government under severe fiscal pressure. Small amounts of gas should begin to be exported in 2022, but uncertainty over the timelines for larger projects will persist. Mozambique’s relations with neighbours should continue to improve over the immediate term.

Security Provision and Counterterrorism in the Sahel

This chapter discusses the politics of security provision and counterterrorism in the Sahel, in light of the main security challenges facing the region: poverty and structural food insecurity, economic and social grievances, organized crime, protracted crisis derived from territorial and ethnic competition, and terrorism and violent radicalization. It emphasizes the concept of human security against the current background of international policies and academic analysis that favors realpolitik, and it focuses on the characteristics of the contemporary state in this part of Africa to explain both the security challenges and the provision of security. The fragility of institutions and the authoritarian trends observed in Sahelian states affect their capacity and legitimacy. The chapter discusses these two aspects in detail, hinting at paths for security sector reform both by the countries and by regional initiatives such as the G5 Sahel.

Sudan coup attempt may reopen political faultlines

Significance Military and civilian leaders within the current power-sharing government have since accused each other of creating the conditions that prompted the coup, in an escalating confrontation over security sector reform that risks becoming a greater threat to the transition than the coup attempt itself. Impacts The more aggressively the commission established to dismantle the former regime conducts its work, the more the risk of coups will rise. Concrete guarantees of immunity for past crimes could encourage some (but not all) military leaders to consider more serious reforms. Civilian leaders might revive discussions shelved last year about creating a new internal security organ under civilian control.

Interventions and repression following civil conflict

Civil conflicts inevitably have negative consequences with regards to respect for human rights within affected states. Unfortunately, the violation of human rights often does not end with the conflict. What factors explain variation in state repression in post-civil conflict societies? Can international interventions, both civilian and military, improve human rights in states with a history of conflict? Does the size of the intervention matter? We argue that international interventions, including peacekeeping missions and officially directed foreign aid, can reduce physical integrity abuses. This process occurs by simultaneously increasing protections for civilians while also raising the costs of repression to both government leaders and their agents. Human rights abuses will also decrease when there are legal remedies available to vulnerable populations which are bolstered by a strong judicial system. A robust civil society can also discourage human rights abuses by shedding light on these events and providing human rights education. In line with our theoretical argument, we focus on UN peacekeeping missions, especially those with human rights teams, and officially directed foreign aid for legal and security sector reform and NGOs. Using both a treatment effects approach and a continuous dose–response model, we find much support for the implications of our argument.

Hollowing

This chapter, ‘Hollowing’, examines how means-end peacemaking may have withering effects on post-agreement political change. Examining politics in northern Sudan after the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the chapter explains the role of peacemaking in the institutionalization of authoritarian rule and the constraining of plural civil politics that in turn contributed to Sudan’s ‘unending wars’. Rejecting explanations of contingent events or poor implementation, the chapter argues that this failure may be written into the means of making peace. Foreign-led peacemaking initiatives can become a damaging site of ‘extroverted’ domestic politics that exert a pull on civil political actors yet rebuff them in favor of elite belligerent deals, leaving civil actors enfeebled and cynical right when they are expected to pluralize post-agreement politics. By paying attention to matters of constitutional review, security sector reform, civic space and the elections, this chapter unravels the manner in which the edifice for politics championed by Sudan’s CPA order proved to be a hollow façade.